Earlier today latest FOMC minutes released
Once again the weather is blamed for missed expectations, pretending the economy is better than it is
Now the Fed dismiss numbers as inaccurate, because seasonal adjustments are off
Why does the government need to seasonally adjust the numbers
Yearly GDP is the number that matters
Once the numbers begin adjusting the numbers you open the floodgates to manipulation and subjectivity
Wall Street analysts tend to be more optimistic for the first quarter
Studies show that Consumers spend most money in Q4; by the following Q1 consumers are taking a break
Same studies show Q2 is usually stronger
Why does the government have to come back with a new GDP measurement in order to come up with a bigger number?
To come up with low unemployment numbers they find ways to under-calculate the unemployed and count under-employed
Analysts are discounting weak data and expecting eventual rate hikes
The Fed is denying the weak economy not because they want to raise rates, but because they can't admit that their monetary policy has failed
Mixed economic data came out this week
Housing Market Expectation Index dropped from 56 in April to 54 in May - missing estimates for fifth time in 6 months
Housing Starts surged to 6 or 7-year high
Lingering optimism for a recovery
Walmart came in far below estimates, attributing miss to the strong dollar
Walmart is a net importer, so the strong dollar should work in its favor
Big drop in gasoline prices in Q1 did not provide a boost for Walmart because the underlying economy is weak
Los Angeles is the largest city in the country to pass the $15/hr minimum wage
They staggered the increase over 5 years, so adverse effects will not be directly attributed to those who voted for the increased minimum wage
It will be difficult to measure decisions not to hire as a result of the minimum wage
The $15/hr minimum wage makes it illegal to hire low-skilled workers for less, preventing them from gaining skills in order to earn more later
We're hiring at Schiff Gold - If you are interested contact Matthew Malleo 800-465-3160