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◆ Dazzling feats of issuance in public sector bond market but signs of wariness persist 

◆ How banks have derisked May issuance 

◆ Corporate bond investors stick around

So many bond issuance records tumbled in a busy week in the primary market that to some it felt like we were back in January. That is typically the busiest month of the year and the 2026 edition was particularly successful for issuers. But scratch beneath the surface and it was clear that issuers were having to be quite cautious about how they approached investors.

This week, we discuss the tactics public sector issuers are using that are driving investors into their deals and those they are not deploying, at least just yet. 

We also look at how banks have brought forward issuance, pricing some spectacular deals by doing so, to take advantage of improved investor sentiment resulting from the Iran war ceasefire. We debate what this means for the rest of the spring for banks issuing in the primary market.

Finally, we looked at the European corporate bond market where issuers also took full advantage of the sentiment boost, allowing us to examine the way different companies are approaching investors and what makes for a successul new issue.

Now read on:

SSA orderbooks bulge like it's January but sensitivity and ‘insecurity’ remain
SSA issuers that can offer clarity will thrive in uncertainty
Surging demand for euro FIG credit eases pressure for clashes in May
Waterfall of sticky investors cascades into euro IG corporate bond market

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◆ Gulf issuers turn to private markets 

◆ Public sector and corporate borrowers to bring forward plans 

◆ Banks re-enter covered and unsecured funding markets

US vice-president JD Vance set off on Friday for Pakistan (pictured) for peace talks to end the war with Iran. The talks are part of a two-week ceasefire, announced on Tuesday, that rejuvenated the primary bond market. We spent much of this week's podcast discussing how public sector issuers, banks and investment grade companies would be altering their bond funding plans to take advantage of this positive but unpredictable opportunity to raise capital.

Certainly the ceasefire boosted issuance activity, following Wednesday's rally in asset prices. Banks were more active in unsecured and covered bond funding and there is an urgency among market participants for IG companies and sovereigns, supranationals and agencies to use the time wisely to bring deals while they can. But as we discover, it is not quite as simple as showing up with open orderbooks, given the recent disruption to markets and what lies in store in the months ahead.

We also discussed how the Iran war is the latest situation to arise from Donald Trump's second term as US president to showcase the euro market as a solid, reliable alternative to dollar funding as it begins to attract more issuance from Asia as well as the US.

But for borrowers in the Middle East, public markets seem beyond the pale even with the ceasefire in place. We examine how several of the region's issuers have turned to private placements to fill their coffers.

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◆ Middle East capital securities will need to be refinanced ◆ Supranationals, agencies and municipalities have had a good war ◆ New ideas to promote covered bonds

The central group of bond issuers in the Middle East are the banks. They are well capitalised, with clean balance sheets and often high credit ratings. But none has come to the market since the war began at the end of February.

With fighting raging and a recession predicted, banks’ secondary spreads have widened, especially on the large quantities of subordinated capital they have issued.

That is manageable, and the banks can stay out of the market for a while. But at some point they will need to return — assuming they stick to their word and call capital bonds at the first opportunity.

Where are the safe haven assets? US Treasuries and Bunds are the obvious ones, but the war has made them sell off too, as investors price in rate rises. One market that has stayed remarkably resilient is non-sovereign public sector bonds.

Despite all the noise, investors and issuers have remained calm throughout March, continuing to do deals at sensible spreads — and April could be busy.

Covered bonds rely on a web of regulation — not just the laws that establish them in many countries, but rules governing how much capital banks have to hold against them and how they can use them for repo funding.

Several major regulatory changes are in the works at once, including on risk weightings, cross-border equivalence and blockchain. And the industry has an idea of its own — a pan-European mortgage guarantee.

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◆ Outsiders open EM investors’ wallets ◆ European banks let their hair down in dollar market, still shy in euros ◆ Digital innovation in Frankfurt with DZ Bank

Angola and African telecom company Helios Towers were hardly the issuers anyone expected to restart bond issuance from central and eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

The Middle East war stopped all sales for three weeks, and bankers were looking for a mainstream, investment grade issuer to reopen the market.

But this week it was speculative grade African borrowers — as well as the Serbian republic within Bosnia-Herzegovina — that performed that duty, with successful deals that showed emerging market bond investors are willing to buy.

Although the three issuers were all from the risky end of the spectrum, they are protected from the war’s effects. Whether investors are willing to steer closer to the Gulf’s woes will be tested in the coming weeks.

Another restart happened in euro bonds for European financial institutions. The market has been bare of new issues all month. For a variety of reasons European banks have avoided their home market. Dealmaking picked up this week, with Bank of Ireland showing the way in euros — but most of the action was still in dollars.

Frankfurt is an important node on Europe’s capital market blockchain network, and this week Matthias Bergner, DZ Bank’s group treasurer, joins the podcast to discuss DZ’s latest pilot digital bond, sold to KfW. DZ reckons it is the first bond in which the full lifecycle is on chain.

Digitalising the bond market - sponsored interview with KfW

In an interview on the GlobalCapital podcast this week, KfW's Tim Meirer and Bert Staufenbiel discuss how to move to the next stage in introducing distributed ledger technology to the bond market. They are convinced it can save time, friction, cost and risk.

Interoperability of systems all along the value chain is central to the effort. Meirer and Staufenbiel highlight four essential avenues for progress: open standards, public-private partnerships, modular designs and continuous dialogue.

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◆ What strikes on energy infrastructure in the Middle East mean for emerging market bonds 

◆ Why issuing in dollars has become so dicey for supranationals and agencies 

◆ Europe's advantage in the private credit metldown

This week we looked into some of the direct and indirect consequences the war with Iran is having on bond markets.

Emerging market issuers are among the most susceptible to commodity price volatility. So with strikes this week against energy infratsucture in the Middle East, we investigated what soaring oil and gas prices mean for this group.

We also discussed the disruption for sovereign, supranational and agency borrowers in one of their core fudning markets — the dollar. We examine why the war has made doing a deal is proving so risky that many issuers are steering clear of what is supposed to be their biggest pool of investment.

Finally, we revisited the world of private credit to discuss the impact of falling valuations of loans made to software companies and how Europe's private credit funds are faring better than their US counterparts.

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◆ Hyperscaler sets new standard for European corporate bond market 

◆ What it will it take to get a bank to issue in euros again 

◆ Iran war could reshape ultra-competitive Gulf capital markets

For bond issuers to keep away from the primary bond market after a shock, like the outbreak of the war with Iran, is not unusual. But it is when only one group is steering clear when every other is issuing.

For understandable reasons, there have been no bonds from the Middle East since the US and Israel began their attacks, of course. But there has been issuance from elsewhere in emerging markets. That only leaves banks issuing in euros as yet to register a deal in that time.

It's even more curious when they are issuing in dollars and printing covered bonds. We examine why they are holding back and discuss how they might return.

There was still plenty for investors to buy in Europe's credit markets, however. Not least was Amazon's multi-tranche blockbuster, its debut in euros. We uncover what the deal meant for investment grade corporate issuance in Europe.

Finally, we discussed the changing investment banking landscape in the Gulf and how the war raises fresh questions about how sustainable the ledning and bond business is in the region.

Click here to find out more about our GC Live event on corporate hybrid capital, taking palce in London on March 24.

Now read on...

Market debates FIG funding future in euros as primary drought extends

Amazon's €14.5bn money magnet redefines what is possible in credit

Iran war brings Gulf capital markets' competitiveness into question

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◆ How banks and bankers are operating in the region under threat of military escaltion 

◆ Bond issuance to resume — but how? 

◆ Dwindling fee pool poses questions over long-term future for banks

The Middle East bond market as been one of growing volumes for the last decade and banks both local and international have been pouring resources into the region to grab a slice of the action. But the outbreak of the Iran war last week has temporarily shuttered issuance.

We reveal what bond bankers in the financial centres of Dubai and beyond are saying about their market and how they are operating amid the conflict.

We also talk about which issuers could reopen the primary market in the Gulf, when they might be able to do it and what they will have to pay to do so.

But we also take a longer term view. The Middle East bond market may be busy but it is also one of seemingly diminishing fees. We ask how long banks and their staff can commit to such an enterprise, especially when the security risk of dong so appears to have ramped up.

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◆ UAE issuers leave emerging markets lable behind 

◆ What Blue Owl can teach about private credit for the masses 

◆ A bump in the road for UK bridging lenders on the way to securitization

Abu Dhabi was in the bond market this week just two days after JP Morgan confirmed that issuers from the UAE would be removed from its benchmark Emerging Markets Bond Indices (EMBI) by the end of March. We look into what EMBI exclusion means for Abu Dhabi and other UAE credits.

We also discussed the recent situation at Blue Owl, which met with a wall of redemption requests from investors worried about the imapct of AI on the software companies that its private credit funds lend to. We discover what lessons private credit and investors can learn about investing in illiquid assets.

Finally, we discuss the future of UK bridging loan companies. It is a market awash with small lenders, two of which recently went into administration. But it had also been an asset class that had appeared to be making inroads into securitization. We look at the best way forward for the industry in light of those developments.

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◆ How AI threat to software biz threatens stockmarket listings... 

◆ ... and collaterlised loan obligation market 

◆ AT1 market hits new record tight but buyers turn away

Investors are wary that recent AI upgrades — notably Anthropic's latest Claude Cowork agent — are a threat to the software as a service (Saas) sector. This is causing headaches for Saas businesses looking to do an IPO this year as well as the private equity companies that often sponsor them. We examine the threat and what it means for equity capital markets.

Loans made to software companies are also a big part of the collateral for CLOs and here too underlying asset prices are suffering as the same AI peril prompts a cheapening in their value. But that's not the CLO market's only problem. The value of loans made to chemical companies is also on the slide. We discuss the impact on CLOs as an asset class.

Finally, after an incredible run in the additional tier one (AT1) market, a bank has issued one with a reset spread tighter than the psychological barrier of mid-swaps plus 300bp. But there are signs that the market is becoming too rich for some investors. We take a look at this week's landmark deal and look at where next for AT1 issuance, the most subordinated layer of banks' capital structures.

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◆ Why emerging market issuers are doing less in dollars 

◆ Republic of Congo — located between rock and hard place 

◆ The GlobalCapital Podcast was brought to you by the numbers 17, 100 and the whole Alphabet

Emerging market issuers are diversifying away from dollar funding. We examine which currencies they are looking to raise debt capital with and what is driving them out of the dollar market.

We also dissect the tough choices the Republic of Congo was faced this week as it priced its debut Eurobond at an eye-wateringly high yield. We discuss the sustainability of that sort of debt and what the country's funding options are now.

If there is one thing the US big tech firms like to do, it's disrupt. They grew fat on disrupting old ways of social interaction and doing business and now they're at the forefront of the disruption AI will bring. To fund the enormous amounts of capital expenditure that AI infrastructure requires, they're now disrupting the capital markets too.

Alphabet this week priced 17 tranches of bonds in three currencies to raise more than $31bn-equivalent. That's impressive enough but it showed that in the sterling and Swiss franc bond markets that incredible feats were possible — and from an issuer at the centre of what may prove to be a bubble and which does not have a long track record of issuing in any currency. 

Among five sterling tranches, which raised £5.5bn, was a 100 year bond. Meanwhile, its Swiss franc sale has surely alerted other issuers to the size of funding available in that market. We discuss it all.