The Horn

Ethiopia is set to hold delayed elections on 21 June, a milestone that – before the ongoing war in the Tigray region – many observers believed would be a litmus test for the transition under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Violent flare-ups in various parts of the country, a poll boycott by some opposition groups and postponed votes in several locations all cast a shadow over the landmark election.

Joining Alan for a discussion on what to expect from the process under these circumstances is William Davison, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia. He unpacks the rising instability, including the growing insurgencies in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions. They discuss how political parties are vying for support amid a surge in ethno-nationalism and the fierce debate over the constitutional structure. They also flesh out different post-election scenarios for Ethiopia given the many outstanding questions about how to resolve the country’s deep rifts.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page.

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In May, the High Court in Kenya overturned President Uhuru Kenyatta’s plan to make significant changes to the 2010 constitution, seen as one of the most progressive in Africa. Willy Mutunga, former Chief Justice of Kenya, talks to Alan Boswell about the court’s decision against the proposed referendum, also known as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), and the political significance of the ruling, which emphasises the sovereignty of the Kenyan people.

He explains why the independence of the Kenyan judiciary is at a crossroads, the pressures he faced as Chief Justice, and answers to critics who say Kenya’s court is “too activist”. They also discuss whether the government’s appeal of the BBI court case can succeed, and whether the government could still organise a referendum before the 2022 presidential elections. He also discusses whether he is concerned about a peaceful transfer of power or constitutional backsliding during the next administration. He then reflects on what it will take for younger generations to imagine and create a new Kenya. 

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Armed clashes along the al-Fashaga border between Sudan and Ethiopia are the latest twist in the up-and-down relationship between the two neighbouring African juggernauts. The border dispute, rooted in historical disagreements but now inflamed by the deterioration in ties between the two countries’ new leaders, could escalate into a regional crisis and is deepened by the recent pivot of Khartoum towards Cairo amidst Sudan’s concerns over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project.

Annette Weber, senior fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, points to a loss in trust between the new governments in both Sudan and Ethiopia, the lack of effective communication channels between them and Addis Ababa’s new approach to the region as the main causes for the recent fallout. She talks about Sudan’s and Ethiopia’s diverging views on the soft border at al-Fashaga, the ongoing GERD dispute and the worrying rise of militias in both countries. She also discusses the future of Ethiopia’s recent alliance with Eritrea and the unclear fate of regional multilateralism. They then examine the EU’s new strategy towards the region and how U.S. re-engagement might affect the European approach.

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Tensions have been rising in Somalia since President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” failed to hold elections in February. After Farmajo moved to extend his term by two years, the ongoing political crisis triggered clashes between security forces loyal to the president and the opposition in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. This turn of events forced President Farmajo to backtrack, says political and security analyst Mohamed Mubarak, but inherent lack of trust among stakeholders means the dispute continues. 

Mohamed says the crisis proves Somalia doesn’t really have a national army, as clans still hold the most sway. Despite these challenges, there is no political will to make much-needed changes to Somalia’s broader federal structure. He tells Alan that Somalia, pressured by the international community, has focused on anti-piracy and counter-terrorism operations, setting aside fundamental security issues and institution building. They also discuss why Al-Shabaab may be winning the battle for legitimacy, the barriers to seeking any political settlement with the group, the risk of civil war should the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) soon withdraw, and where Somalia’s state-building project should go from here. 

For more information:

• Read our recent Q&A: Why Somalia’s Electoral Crisis Has Tipped into Violence 
• The Horn S2 E10: Somalia's Election Crisis
• The Horn S1 E22: Somali Politics Heat up, Again

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In September 2018, South Sudan signed a peace accord to end five years of civil war. However, the agreement remains extremely fragile, and over two years later key parts of the unity government between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar – now Vice President –  have not been constituted. According to Betty Bigombe, Uganda’s special envoy to South Sudan, the peace process suffers from an overemphasis on power sharing, a lack of political will and a region that has placed the peace process on the backburner.

Betty joins Alan Boswell to examine the mediation process led by East Africa’s Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and why some claim the South Sudan people don’t own the deal. They also look at the role of Uganda and Sudan, former foes, in reconciling the two main parties. Betty tells Alan that a more inclusive national dialogue is needed that brings together the political elites, civil society and refugees. They also discuss whether IGAD should continue to lead the mediation process, the role of the African Union, and the future of Kiir and Machar.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page.

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The international community has long viewed Eritrea as a pariah state, yet the country’s influence is rising again in the turbulent Horn of Africa region. For more than a decade, Ethiopia and the West pushed the country’s regime under President Isaias Afwerki into survival mode. But with the political transition in Ethiopia, and Eritrea’s alliances with Gulf powers across the Red Sea, Asmara is once again looking to shape the region in its favour. 

Harry Verhoeven, a scholar on international politics in Africa, joins Alan Boswell to unpack Eritrea’s rising influence in the region and what it means for regional order and stability. They discuss President Isaias Afwerki’s survival techniques and his ties with the Gulf states. Harry also describes the complex alliance between Asmara and Addis Ababa amid the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, and whether President Afwerki could be willing to withdraw Eritrean troops from Ethiopia for tactical purposes. They also look at escalating tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia and where the shifting power relations in the Horn of Africa are headed. 

For more information:

• The Horn S2 E3: Eritrea's One-man Rule.
   
• Harry Verhoeven and Philip Roessler, Why Comrades Go to War: Liberation Politics and the Outbreak of Africa's Deadliest Conflict, Oxford University Press.

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In this episode of Crisis Group's podcast Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood, Crisis Group’s interim president, and guest host Comfort Ero, our interim vice president and Africa Program director, talk to Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, about the fighting in Tigray and its implications for regional politics. Murithi sheds light on the calculations of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, rebel Tigray leaders and Eritrea, which has also sent forces into Tigray. He talks through the Horn of Africa’s evolving geopolitics, growing friction between Ethiopia and its neighbours, and the state of play of both Ethiopia’s and Sudan’s transitions. He looks at what continental and world leaders need to do to end the Tigray crisis and calm escalating regional tensions. 

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page.

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The death of President Magufuli, a populist authoritarian and COVID-denier, officially from a heart failure, raises questions about whether newly sworn-in President Samia Suluhu Hassan will change course or maintain her predecessor’s authoritarian track. Tundu Lissu, Tanzania’s main opposition leader, joins Alan Boswell this week to discuss the late President Magufuli’s legacy and policies in Tanzania.

Tundu says President Magufuli’s death is an opportunity to reverse trends and ensure accountability in the country. He expects Samia Suluhu Hassan, Tanzania’s first woman president, to reverse the government’s response to Covid-19, as well as a variety of other policies pursued by Magufuli over the past five years. 

Tundu tells Alan his biggest fear is the influence of the security forces, which amassed tremendous power under Magufuli, and hopes for a general improvement in the political atmosphere to secure democracy in Tanzania. He also answers Alan’s question on whether he plans to run again for president in the next elections. 

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The Gulf dispute over Qatar’s foreign policy has spilt over into the Horn of Africa. In trying to shape the regional landscape in their respective favours, Gulf states have intensified proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa and Libya and made them harder to resolve. The January 2021 al-Ula declaration ends the blockade of Qatar and promises an end to the rift between them, at least formally, but will it lead to a de-escalation of their rivalries abroad?

Elham Fakhro, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the Gulf States, joins Alan Boswell to discuss how Gulf states’ reconciliation might impact their foreign policy choices in the Horn of Africa, in particular. She unpacks the vested interests they have in the region and how they can engage constructively in countries like Sudan and Somalia. She tells Alan that additional dialogue among Gulf states to further resolve their disputes over foreign policy is still needed and says the upcoming elections in Somalia may be a test of what’s to come. 

For more information:

• The Horn S1 E1: Red Sea Rising
• Read our commentary Resolving the Gulf Crisis outside the Gulf 

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