The Horn

Armed conflict has been raging in Ethiopia's northernmost Tigray region since November and fears are growing that it is on the brink of famine. Sporadic reports trickling out of the chronically food-insecure region paint an alarming picture: hundreds of thousands displaced, essential infrastructure systematically destroyed, widespread atrocities committed and an untold number of civilian deaths. 

Shrouded by a virtual information blackout, Alex de Waal says the scope of what is yet to emerge is cause for even more concern. The executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University and author of Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine, the renowned Horn of Africa scholar is back with Alan to distill what is known of how the war is unfolding. Having drawn in multiple belligerents, the situation is dire but also complex. 

Alex underlines that the window of time to avert a full-blown humanitarian disaster is slipping. He discusses what witnesses have told him about the catastrophe, how political will at the highest level can be mobilized to give humanitarian agencies access to stricken regions, what Eritrea’s endgame could be, and what may come of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) now that it has been forced into an insurgency from the mountains.

For more information, see our latest briefing: Finding a Path to Peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last month’s elections in Uganda saw President Yoweri Museveni clinch another six years to his rule that began in 1986, a  win marred by controversy and violence. The widespread crackdown on the opposition, civil society, and protests prior to the vote was the clearest sign yet that the incumbent regime’s days in power may be numbered. 

Joining Alan Boswell to take a closer look at what happened and what’s to come in Uganda is Daniel Kalinaki, Africa editor at Nation Media Group and managing editor of The East African. He explains to Alan that a record-low voter turnout and opposition leader Bobi Wine’s popular appeal both indicate that the country’s citizens, particularly the urban youth, are growing disillusioned with the status quo.

Together they unpack the big questions this reality raises, including the complicit role of foreign interests in Uganda’s democratic backsliding, the inevitable prospect of succession, and what future political turmoil would mean for the restive region in which Uganda has long been an unusual anchor of relative stability. 

For more information, read our recent Q&A: Uganda’s Museveni Clings to Power – But Trouble Lies Ahead.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With President Farmajo’s mandate due to end in just two weeks and little consensus on the way forward, a delay in Somalia’s high-stakes elections appears inevitable.

Back with Alan to explain why a mid-September agreement on electoral changes has unraveled is Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Somalia. Together they chart the various scenarios the country could be headed toward, taking into account the major issues fuelling tensions between Farmajo, regional states, and political opposition. 

To steer clear of contestation and resulting unrest further down the line, Omar underlines the need for renewed agreement between the parties on a realistic electoral timeline. He tells Alan that failure to establish a framework for political order in Somalia after 8 February could heighten clan-based grievances, the risks of Al-Shabaab violence, and the new involvement of regional actors.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Director Murithi Mutiga joins Alan Boswell to debate which regional conflicts and crises are most prominent on their radars for 2021.

From the myriad political and security crises in Ethiopia ahead of elections to the enduring economic woes troubling Sudan’s transition, this year promises to be pivotal.

Murithi tells Alan that much hinges on political elites’ capacity for dialogue, compromise, and reform. Recent events have demonstrated how easily unrest can reverberate across borders, so whether our gaze is on who emerges successful out of Somalia’s polls or what Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki is planning, it is how these dynamics overlap that will prove most telling. 

For more information, explore our work on the Horn of Africa region: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

During our brief season break, we're re-running an earlier episode from Season 2 that new subscribers may have missed. We will be back in January with a brand new line-up!

Alan talks to Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director Comfort Ero about how the politics of conflict and peacemaking have changed — and not changed — across the African continent during the decade that she has led the organization’s work on Africa.

They discuss power struggles in the Horn of Africa as America’s primacy wanes, the African Union’s more assertive role in peace and security, and how African leaders should manage their relationships with China to strengthen conflict resolution on the continent, not repressive authoritarian regimes. They also explore the benefits and risks of talking about African solutions to African problems, and the need to take into account the crucial national interests that can drive a state to try to shape the future of a neighboring country.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The U.S. was South Sudan’s most important ally on its path to independence in 2011 and a major player during talks that led to a peace deal in 2015. The agreement collapsed soon after, plunging the country into a wider civil war and a humanitarian crisis that has deepened since. 

Joining Alan to look back on America’s role in South Sudan and the Obama administration’s struggles to bring peace to the young country is Jon Temin, Africa director at Freedom House and a former State Department official from 2014 to 2017. He reflects on what the U.S. got wrong in its approach to brokering peace once South Sudan achieved statehood, what factors influenced its policy at critical junctures along the way and why the country’s fate ultimately lies in the hands of the South Sudanese people and regional actors.

As the incoming Biden administration configures its policy priorities in Africa, they also discuss how these takeaways will likely inform future peacemaking efforts on the continent. 

For more information, read Jon Temin’s report for the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and his piece in Foreign Affairs: What the United States Got Wrong in South Sudan. 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the conflict in Tigray declared over by the federal government, Ethiopia’s complex transition is at a daunting crossroads. Steering the country into calmer waters ahead of the upcoming elections will require difficult political navigation by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Regional autonomy demands, border disputes, and recurring bouts of inter-ethnic violence lay bare the many fault lines that remain. What will it take to successfully bridge the competing agendas of ethnonationalism and pan-Ethiopianism to find a workable middle ground on which to advance Ethiopia’s democratic transition?

Constitutional specialist and political analyst Adem Kassie Abebe, a Program Officer at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), joins Alan to give his personal take on the likelihood of a Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) insurgency, the imperative of inclusive national dialogue in the near future and the different directions the country could be headed in given these uncertainties.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The last four years of relative U.S. absence in Africa contrast starkly with the country’s historically oversized role in shaping peace and security on the continent. Has this shift set the tone for years to come or will President-elect Biden seek to re-engage as an active partner?

Crisis Group’s Chief of Staff Brittany Brown, having worked on African affairs under Presidents Bush, Obama, and Trump, joins Alan for a look at what Biden’s foreign policy priorities should be. 

Together they draw parallels between previous U.S. administrations to envisage whether the incoming Biden team will mark a departure from past approaches to China, human rights, counter-terrorism, and multilateralism in Africa – and the Horn of Africa region in particular.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A war that many feared was possible but hoped would never happen appears to be underway between Ethiopia’s federal forces and those commanded by the northern Tigray region. 

William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, walks Alan through the long-simmering tensions that set both sides on the course to armed conflict. Joining from Addis Ababa, he gives his assessment of how the conflict is playing out, stressing the urgent need for concerted diplomatic intervention to bring a potentially protracted conflict situation to a halt. 

Alan is also joined by Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Program Director Dino Mahtani for an overview of how a full-blown civil war could not only wreak devastation in Ethiopia but also have grave consequences for peace and security in its neighborhood and Africa at large. 

For more information, see:

Ethiopia’s Clash with Tigray: Getting to a Ceasefire and National Dialogue

Steering Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis Away from Conflict

The Horn S1 Episode 9: Ethiopia’s Fragile Transition

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Almost eighteen months after a popular revolution ousted President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s transition remains on shaky ground. While the Juba peace agreement signed in August and President Trump’s recent announcement that Sudan will be removed from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST) list are welcome developments, the economic crisis and societal frustrations remain unchanged in the absence of substantial support from the international community. 

On his return from Khartoum, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Sudan, Jonas Horner, joins Alan to explain how this lack of buy-in endangers these initial signs of progress, why the way political alignments are currently shifting in the capital is cause for concern, what post-Bashir Sudan looks like on the ground and where it looks to be headed.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.