The Horn

Africa’s priority in fighting COVID-19 is to find the right “balance between saving lives and saving livelihoods”, based on the experience of what happened in Europe, the United States, and China, says Dr. John Nkengasong, Director of Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), the African Union body coordinating the response to the pandemic on the continent.

The wave of COVID-19 infections that many predicted would cruelly expose Africa’s weak health systems has not materialized on the continent thanks to early lockdown measures, lessons learnt from the Ebola and HIV crises, and strong leadership and coordination on a continental level.

But Africa is not out of the woods yet, and as European countries start easing lockdowns, Africa needs to redouble its efforts if it wants to avoid a massive spread of the disease.

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Africa has been hit with a double punch. The economic fallout of COVID-19 has preceded the health crisis, resulting in job losses and endangering food supplies. The pandemic's impact on the region's tumultuous political transitions could be grave. 

The international community has moved surprisingly quickly in response to the pandemic, but is it enough? EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa Alexander Rondos explains that greater regional cooperation is needed to address the potential consequences wrought by the crisis. Only by working more closely together can they develop an effective strategy for pandemic relief.

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“Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change across the world, and yet is the least responsible”.

Climate change is a threat multiplier. Its ability to disrupt livelihoods, change migration patterns, and complicate political imbalances make it an increasingly significant driver of conflict. 

David Mozersky, co-founder of Energy Peace Partners and a former Crisis Group project director for the region, is Alan’s guest this week. They examine the conflict in Darfur, UN climate goals, and the international community’s carbon footprint.

For more information, see our President and CEO Robert Malley talking to the UN Security Council: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=791719564689357&ref=watch_permalink

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“COVID-19 is not just an epidemic, but a highly complex emergency”. 

The implications of the coronavirus pandemic are still unclear. But the looming global recession and direct impact of containment measures on livelihoods make this an unprecedented crisis for Africa. Furthermore, the U.S., once an important ally in times of health crises, has turned its back on the continent, especially after President Trump’s “reckless” decision to terminate funding for the World Health Organization. Worst-hit countries are now faced with the prospect of major food shortages, political fragility, and major economic dislocation. 

Alex de Waal, an expert on the continent who has written extensively on the effects of pandemics on political power, joins Alan this week to discuss the international system’s ability to respond to the new crisis in Africa and the value of community-led strategies to help blunt the impact.

Articles on COVID-19:
New Pathogen, Old Politics (Boston Review)
COVID-19 in Africa: “Know your Epidemic, Act on its Politics." (African Arguments)Governance Implications of Epidemic Disease in Africa: Updating the Agenda for COVID-19

Books discussed: AIDS and Power: Why there is no Political Crisis - Yet
The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa
Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine

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The death and disruption wrought by the coronavirus pandemic have already been felt by much of the world. With the disease now making its way across East Africa, Alan Boswell sat down with journalist April Zhu to discuss the challenges the region faces.

Overstretched healthcare systems, the consequences of a global economic depression on stability, and the long-term geopolitical implications of China’s growing engagement are all covered in this first episode of a special COVID-19 series on The Horn.

For more information, see our recent briefing on the possible political effects of the contagion: COVID-19 and Conflict: Seven Trends to Watch.

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Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan are struggling to reach agreement over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Ethiopia, which sees the dam as a defining national development project, is ready to start filling it; Sudan, a historic ally of Egypt, covets the cheap electricity and expanded agricultural production that it promises; while Egypt remains deeply concerned about the impact it could have on the Nile’s water flow.

Harry Verhoeven, a leading academic expert on the issue, joins Alan this week to discuss the current impasse. They examine the technical issues, the politicization of the dam, understandings of security and power, the role of the U.S. Treasury, and what the dam could contribute toward poverty reduction, environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity in the Nile Basin.

For more information, see our Commentary, Calming the Choppy Nile Dam Talks and our report, Bridging the Gap in the Nile Waters Dispute

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On 22 February, South Sudan's two warring leaders, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar agreed once again to form a unity government. After several failed attempts to make peace, this deal is more important than ever. In this episode, we flip the script by bringing Crisis Group's Africa Program Director, Comfort Ero, into the studio to interview host Alan Boswell. Alan, who is Crisis Group's senior analyst in South Sudan, has just returned from field research there. In this episode Comfort and Alan discuss how we got to this point, what the unity government needs to succeed and what may hold it back, again.

Read our statement for more information: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/south-sudan/major-step-toward-ending-south-sudans-civil-war

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Sudan’s transition hangs in the balance. 

As the country embarks on its journey to inclusive, democratic rule, one of the most pressing issues it faces is the flailing economy. The civilian-led administration inherits a legacy of decades of ruinous economic policies, exacerbated by crippling U.S. sanctions. Crisis Group has long called on the U.S. to rescind its outdated designation of Sudan as a State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST), which would be an important first step in supporting economic reform. 

Cameron Hudson, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, joins Alan this week to shed light on the nature of U.S. sanctions, the factors obstructing the lifting of the SST, the role of the international community and the challenges for Prime Minister Hamdok. 

For more information, see Cameron’s Foreign Policy article:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/25/the-united-states-should-lift-sanctions-on-sudan/

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