The Horn

Ethiopia’s elections, scheduled for August, are set to be the first free and fair elections since 2005. But myriad challenges lie ahead, warns Will Davison, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia and Alan’s guest on The Horn this week.

When Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power, he immediately marked himself as a departure from the country’s authoritarian past. He has opened up the country’s politics, embarked on a historic rapprochement with Eritrea, released more political prisoners and invited home exiled dissidents. 

However, efforts to dismantle the country’s old order have sparked a debate between supporters and opponents of the country’s ethnic federalist system. Hostility among different regions has soared, ethno-nationalism is on the rise and intercommunal clashes have displaced millions. Concerns abound that intensified political competition around elections could further destabilise the state. 

Tune in to hear all about the complex dynamics at play.

For more information, see our report Keeping Ethiopia’s Transition on the Rails.

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From Sudan’s fragile transition and Ethiopia's internal tensions to a resilient Al-Shabaab insurgency in Somalia and beyond, 2020 is set to be an important year in the Horn of Africa.

Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Project Director for the region, joins Alan to discuss the conflicts and crises dominating the headlines and the ones evading them, from the Kenya-Somalia maritime dispute to the dramatic deterioration of Tanzania’s political environment. 

Special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. 

For more information, check out our website: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa

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The Al-Shabaab insurgency remains a potent force in Somalia. One understudied source of its resilience is the support it enjoys among Somali women, despite the group’s patriarchal ethos, strict gender ideology and brutal methods. 

Azadeh Moaveni, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Gender, joins Alan to discuss women’s roles within the movement, from intelligence gathering, to fundraising, to arms carrying and to recruitment. 

For more information, see our briefing: Women and Al-Shabaab’s Insurgency

Special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. 

Originally published on 28 June 2019. 

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Kenya and Somalia are currently fighting a legal battle over their shared maritime border, an area rich in oil and gas. 

Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi "Farmajo" is playing hardball. With national elections approaching, he has taken a more assertive stance to demonstrate the country’s strength and appeal to his support base. Kenya views itself as a powerful country in a turbulent region and doesn’t wish to be seen caving into pressure.

Rashid Abdi, Consultant and former Horn of Africa Director at Crisis Group, joins Alan this week to shed light on the deeply complex issue. They seek insights about why the dispute flared up, Ethiopia’s changing role under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and how mediation efforts have achieved some positive, modest success in de-escalating tensions. 

Special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. 

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After five years of violent conflict, South Sudan’s main warring leaders, President Salva Kiir and his chief rival Riek Machar, signed a 2018 peace deal. The agreement established a ceasefire and set out a political roadmap toward elections in 2022, which included the formation of a unity government. But the peace deal is imperiled and with it the fragile ceasefire. Emmily Koiti, a civil society activist who participated in the peace talks, joins Alan this week to discuss why she thinks the main parties will fail to form a functioning unity government, the principle issues obstructing progress and why the country’s current leaders do not represent the aspirations of the South Sudanese. 

For more information, see our briefing:  Déjà Vu: Preventing Another Collapse in South Sudan. 

With special thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances.

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President Trump hoped that minimal engagement would bring big wins in the Horn of Africa: more U.S. trade & investment and seeing off his great power competitors. In practice, multiple surprises have forced U.S. policy into a mode of serial reaction. How are these priorities and realities truly different from those of his predecessors? And how has he dealt with themes that rarely feature in his usual doctrines, issues like governance, peace and security? Judd Devermont joins Alan Boswell to discuss all this on The Horn. 

Judd Devermont is the Director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and was a senior official at the National Intelligence Council under the Obama Administration.

With thanks to our producer, Maeve Frances. 

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Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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