After oil markets were rattled by negative prices this week, Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, believes that the ultra-bearish momentum has further to go in the coming weeks given the physical reality of a still monumental oversupplied global oil market.

What comes next? With ultimately a finite amount of storage left to fill, Ehsan believes production will soon fall substantially enough to drive markets to become instantaneously balanced, thus positioning the prospect for higher oil prices in even a matter of weeks (not months). Listen below to hear his analysis.

In this episode Jordan Heiber, Deputy Representative in MUFG’s Washington DC Representative Office explores how the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the outlook for the elections this November.

Remarkable oil market sell-offs are likely to only rattle investors in the short term, as positive signs in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic in developed economies emerged this week. However, as the virus begins to take hold of emerging markets in the face of warnings from the WHO about a second wave of infections globally, are longer-term repercussions on the cards? Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, discusses the week ahead.

Weak March retail sales and expectations for weak April retail sales seem in stark contrast to current financial market pricing. Structural issues of the U.S. labor market suggest that any recovery could face challenges. What is an investor to do?

The focus in Europe is now on the timing and strategy for lockdown reversals. On this week’s podcast, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, gives an overview of the two factors which will impact this decision making: the capacity of state healthcare systems and the extent of testing for COVID-19.

Germany, Switzerland and Austria are leading the way, but the UK is trailing behind on both these fronts.

Listen for Derek’s thoughts on the timeline for these reversals and the current state of the markets. 

1. With an improvement in COVID-19 data, it’s all about the economy and lockdowns. The rate of recovery versus new cases of COVID will be key to governments’ decisions to open up - in the UK and in European countries such as Germany, France, Switzerland and Austria.

 2. Lockdowns through April and, apart from Germany, reversals over several weeks from May. Countries might reverse sector by sector but there will be significant restrictions  throughout the summer.

3.  Investors seem to have focused on the good news and equities look “pretty rich” given the risks. There might be reversals of lockdowns eg what's happened in China recently. From a FX perspective, the dollar is likely to hold at these levels.

Exploring the downside risks in the age of COVID-19. 

In this episode of the MUFG Global Markets Podcast, we continue our conversation with John Herrmann, U.S. Rates Strategist for MUFG, on U.S. unemployment and implications for GDP over the course of the next several months.

This week will see emergency virtual meetings amongst global oil producers to decide on a strategy to manage the current oil crisis. The incentives to forge a deal are monumental, yet so are the challenges. 

Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, believes that the outcomes are binary with uncertainties abound; how could these play out, and what can we expect to see in the markets going forward?

Rolling lockdowns in Europe have brought tentative improvements in global risk sentiment, and discussions about lifting restrictions suggest normalcy may be restored to some degree soon.Japan, on the other hand, is facing a one month state of emergency for the seven prefectures which account for around half of Japan’s GDP. How are the markets reacting to these developments, and what indications might there be for the future? Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, gives his thoughts on this week’s podcast.

The global oil market is experiencing unimaginable turmoil; overwhelmed by demand destruction and an inflating surplus, oil prices have witnessed an epic collapse to near 17 year lows as COVID-19 lockdowns have cascaded through the global economy.

With few precedents in modern history to draw on, where does this leave investors? Click below to listen to Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Strategy, give his analysis.

As the COVID-19 situation continues to evolve, how will impacts on the U.S. real economy stack up against previous events? On the eve of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releasing its Employment Situation report for March 2020, John Herrmann, U.S. Rates Strategist for MUFG, discusses the outlook for U.S. payroll, employment, and the consumer economy.