As the Strait of Hormuz grinds to a halt, gas prices soar, and inflation threatens to spike, Trump arrives at his meeting with Xi Jinping looking wounded and weak. He will be looking for help from China's dictator, but help never comes for free. What will he concede to Xi?

In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Janice turn to a major new government appointment in Canada: Louise Arbour as our new Governor General. Andrew argues that despite widespread criticism, she is highly qualified for the position, with a long record of achievement and a deep understanding of the country's history. Serious jobs require serious people with real experience. Rudyard, however, is concerned that Ottawa keeps recycling and reappointing Boomers to important government positions, and argues it is high time for a generational transition and the passing of the baton to the next generation.

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Tickets to our May 20th Munk Debate on Foreign Wars taking place in Toronto and featuring Mike Pompeo, Victoria Nuland, John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, are now on sale. Visit https://munkdebates.com/debates/foreign-wars-debate/ to purchase tickets.

Trump's pause on escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz has less to do with pressure from Iran and more to do with pressure from Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile the U.S. has not done anything to protect the UAE which is under sustained attack from Iran. What happened to the US security guarantee to the Gulf States? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to two previous Munk Debaters - Louise Arbour and Nigel Farage - who were in the news this week for different reasons. Nigel had a great night in Britain with his Reform Party trouncing Labour in local council elections. The rise of populism in Britain, on both the left and right, is due to the failure of governance and the political ineptness of their Prime Minister Keir Starmer. In Canada former Supreme Court justice Louise Arbour was appointed as the country's new Governor General. Why is Ottawa unwilling—or incapable—of promoting talent beyond the Laurentian elite circle? And is it time for the Boomer careerists to step aside, bow out, and make room for a younger generation to inhabit these institutions? Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.

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The U.S. edges back toward war with Iran just as food and gas prices are poised to surge. Could there be a role for China to play in getting Iran and the U.S. back to the negotiating table? Meanwhile Ukraine is quickly becoming a formidable military power due to battlefield resolve and technological innovation. Is it time for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO? Andrew argues that here the gains are bigger than the risks. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to Mark Carney's meeting in Armenia with European leaders to discuss security concerns and partnerships. Big changes are afoot in Europe which is hedging against U.S. instability by pursuing trade deals with other countries. Canada needs to follow their lead and look for other trade partners while not angering our most important trade ally, the United States. Is moving closer to Europe the answer?

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The U.S. and Iran are locked in a long-term stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz. With the midterms looming, the Iranians view the next few weeks as the window of maximum leverage. If the strait stays closed into the summer months people will start to feel the pain in a very real way that could tip into a global recession. The consequences of this high stakes game of poker are getting much more serious as both parties are digging in. Who blinks first? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to Mythos, a new AI model from Anthropic which allows users to find and exploit vulnerabilities in major operating systems. This new software will give malignant actors access to private information that could cripple our financial institutions. We did not learn our lesson from social media and the laissez faire attitude we have taken towards AI will lead to a very real and dangerous Y2K moment.

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Mark Carney has proposed a “Canada Strong Fund” which will launch with a C$25 billion endowment focused on domestic infrastructure, part of a broader effort to reduce Canada's reliance on the United States after tariffs have strained the economy. Canadians would also be able to invest their own savings in the fund. But with productivity declining for decades, it's unclear how this initiative meaningfully addresses the country's deeper growth challenges. At a moment of real urgency, the question remains whether this represents a serious step toward fixing Canada's underlying economic problems.

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Rudyard and Janice open the show with news of the Spring 2026 Munk mainstage debate: Be it resolved, don't go hunting monsters. A timely debate on competing interventionist and restraint-based approaches to foreign policy now contending for dominance in the halls of power. Rudyard and Janice move on to the Iran war and the shaky ceasefire that Trump has extended despite Iran's attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. With the Strait now closed, this has become an economic war and an endurance test: which country can withstand the pain longer? This is the single largest energy shock the modern world has ever seen that will bring about significant inflation. How will inflation further radicalize populist movements and destabilize governments around the globe? In the back half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to upcoming trade talks between Canada and the US. PM Carney is warning Canadians that there is a bumpy road ahead and concessions will need to be made that will likely yield a scaled down agreement with a narrower scope. Rudyard suggests that despite Trump's animosity towards our country, Canadians would be wise to accept that our economic interest lies in a better trade relationship with the U.S. over diversification overseas. Carney should consider delaying any concessions until the midterms and restart negotiations in November with a politically weakened president.

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The historic Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced this week is the result of a direct conversation between the President of Lebanon and the Prime Minister of Israel. And yet, this deal was brokered by the U.S. against the wishes of Bibi Netanyahu as it has impeded Israel's ability to push Hezbollah back from its border. Coupled with the halting of the Iran war - and being excluded from that negotiating table - the events of the past few weeks have resulted in a political and strategic defeat for Israel. What effect will this have on Netanyahu's standing ahead of the next election in Israel? And are these unfavourable outcomes the result of growing daylight between Washington and Jerusalem? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to Canadian domestic politics and the Liberals securing a majority rule via floor crossings and by-elections. Why are we seeing an unprecedented exodus of MPs to the Liberals? Is there something more going on behind the scenes? And how will this growing collapse of party loyalty and the bonds of party affiliation weaken our democracy?

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Thanks to recent floor crossings and last night's by-election, the Liberal Party now has a majority government and a 15 point favourability lead that has unnerved and divided the Conservatives. Should MPs be able to cross the floor at their will? Andrew argues that public officials crossing over from the opposition to the governing body should seek permission from their constituents. What is the fate and future of the NDP and Conservatives in this new political environment? Meanwhile the Liberals now have time to rebuild the party and Mark Carney, with the confidence of the country, has the latitude to decide what direction he wants to go in. Will the PM use this new majority and political capital to finally address Canada's major crises - productivity, overregulation, lack of competition - that past leaders chose to ignore?

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Janice and Rudyard believe this war was a strategic defeat for the U.S. with Iran now in control of a chokepoint through which 25% of the world's energy flows. Is this the end of freedom of navigation in international waters? Iran is proposing a toll for passing through the Strait of Hormuz using cryptocurrency which could erode an important U.S. strategic chokepoint: the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. Meanwhile America's major allies - NATO members, Asian countries and the Gulf States - have lost confidence in America's ability to protect them. How will China take advantage of America's strategic blunder? Can J.D. Vance use this conflict to advance his own political ambitions? And will the U.S. make serious concessions to Iran about tolls, sanctions, and enriched uranium? This week, geopolitics shifted beneath our feet—and it may mark the start of America's decline.

Thank you to this week's new curators Stephanie G and Suzanne L for making the full edition of this Friday Focus available to all paying and non-paying subscribers.

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Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.

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Can the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran hold? In the span of twenty-four hours Trump went from threatening to end their civilization to considering a joint venture to toll the Strait of Hormuz. America's inability to open the strait without a ceasefire is a confession of weakness, one that China will take advantage of. This war is a strategic defeat for the U.S., and Andrew believes we may look back at this affair as the beginning of the end for Pax Americana. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to domestic Canadian politics where longtime conservative MP Marilyn Gladu crossed the floor to the Liberals, bringing Mark Carney one seat closer to a majority government. Gladu is widely considered one of the most right-leaning of conservative MPs. How wide can this Liberal tent stretch before it collapses? And should voters have a say in whether their MPs leave the parties under which they were elected?

Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to full episodes of Munk Dialogues with Andrew Coyne. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.

Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.

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