The Margin of Error Has Vanished: What CRE Investors Should Be Watching Now
Commentary on a conversation with John Chang, Senior Vice President and National Director, Research and Advisory Services, Marcus & Millichap The New CRE Investment Mandate: Survive First, Then Thrive “The margin of error has narrowed to virtually zero.” This was John Chang’s stark assessment of today’s commercial real estate environment – an era marked by fragile capital markets, rising Treasury yields, policy instability, and speculative hangovers from a decade of cheap money. According to Chang, the headline playbook hasn’t changed: keep leverage low, maintain reserves, underwrite for downside. But the stakes have changed. What used to be prudent is now required. Those who forget that, particularly those lulled by the long post-GFC bull run, risk extinction. Cap Rates, Treasury Yields, and the Compressed Spread A central theme of our conversation is the vanishing spread between borrowing costs and asset yields. Cap rates have risen 100–200 bps depending on asset class and geography, but Treasury rates have risen more. That’s compressed spreads, rendering most acquisitions reliant on a value-creation story or an eventual rate reversal. Investors are still transacting, says Chang, but only if they believe they can bridge the spread gap through operational improvements i.e. leasing, renovation, management upgrades. Passive cap-rate arbitrage is no longer viable. “The potential for something to go wrong is high,” Chang warns, especially in a policy environment that remains erratic. The Treasury Market’s Imminent Supply Shock Chang outlines why he expects upward pressure on Treasury yields for the balance of the year – contrary to the market's general expectations of rate cuts. Key reasons:
- Federal Deficits: With a delayed budget, Treasury issuance has been running below historical norms. That’s about to reverse, with $1–1.5 trillion in supply expected by October.
- Shrinking Buyer Base: The Fed is reducing its balance sheet. Foreign holders, especially China and Japan, are net sellers. Even traditional allies are showing less appetite, driven partly by frictions over U.S. trade policy.
- Trade Tensions: Tariffs of up to 145% on imports from China, EU saber-rattling, and a broad retreat from globalization are alienating the very buyers of U.S. debt.
“People don’t want to do us any favors right now,” Chang says. “That uncertainty alone elevates risk premiums.” Normalcy Bias and the Myth of the Perpetual Up Cycle Chang pulls no punches on the market psychology underpinning risky underwriting in recent years. He describes a bifurcated investor landscape:
- Those who entered post-GFC and think 2–3% interest rates and infinite rent growth are normal.
- Veterans of the 1990s S&L crisis, the dot-com bust, or the GFC, who know better.
What’s striking is the lack of long-term data. Even Marcus & Millichap, he notes, only has robust CRE data going back to 2000. Without context, many have mistaken the tailwind-fueled 2010s as a standard baseline. “We’re back to old-world real estate,” Chang says. “Where you have to actually understand the property, the tenant mix, the microeconomics of location. The era of pure financial engineering is over.” Lessons from the Pandemic and GFC: Underwrite for Downside, Not for Hype Chang recounts closing on an investment in April 2020 at the very onset of pandemic uncertainty. “What if we rent at breakeven?” he asked. If the answer was yes, he proceeded. That conservative approach worked then and still applies today. The biggest blow-ups, he says, came from sponsors who:
- Modeled double-digit rent growth.
- Over-leveraged.
- Used floating-rate debt without hedges.
- Ignored capex and reserves.
By contrast, Chang praises sponsors who locked in fixed debt, kept leverage under 65%, and stayed humble. “They’re embarrassed to be earning 7% IRRs,” he jokes, “but in this climate, that’s a win.” Washout in the Syndication Space: Good Riddance? Perhaps most damning is Chang’s commentary on the wave of underqualified syndicators who entered during the boom years. “Thousands came in with no operating experience,” he says, pointing to the proliferation of coaching programs offering checklists instead of expertise. These new entrants mimicked industry language – AUM figures, fund manager titles – but often had no institutional track record or risk management skills. Many of them, Chang believes, are now out or on their way out. And while some may return with hard-earned wisdom, he expects the flow of “tourists” into the syndication world to dry up for the foreseeable future. Tailwinds Still Exist: But Only for the Well-Prepared Despite the short-term risks, Chang sees multiple long-term tailwinds:
- Demographics: Millennials are delaying homeownership, renting into their 40s and fueling demand for multifamily.
- Inflation Resistance: Assets like multifamily, self-storage, and even select retail have pricing power in inflationary environments.
- Constrained Supply: Rising costs (e.g., lumber, steel tariffs) are slowing new construction, which will support existing asset values over time.
He also flags tax policy as a positive surprise: The “BBB” tax bill, now working its way through the House, offers accelerated depreciation and expansion of Opportunity Zones particularly in rural areas. This could buoy returns in an otherwise challenging environment. On the Aging of America: A Selective Case for Healthcare-Adjacent Assets Chang views medical office and senior housing through a bifurcated lens:
- Medical office: Attractive if tenants are stable, young, or anchored by heavy equipment. Long leases. Minimal turnover. Durable income.
- Assisted living: Demographic tailwinds are real, but operators matter more than ever. The Achilles heel? Labor.
“About 30% of healthcare workers in the U.S. are foreign-born,” he warns. “And immigration policy, especially under restrictive regimes, will constrain the labor supply.” No staff, no NOI. Final Signals: What He’s Watching Closely If you want to forecast CRE performance, Chang suggests watching:
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A leading indicator of retail sales and housing trends. Currently falling.
- Inflation-adjusted Retail Sales: Shows how real consumption is holding up.
- Trade Policy & Supreme Court Rulings: The potential invalidation of Trump-era tariffs could reset inflation and Treasury outlooks but introduces a new kind of uncertainty.
“We’re not facing one black swan,” he concludes. “We’re facing a whole flock. Pick your bird.” Bottom Line This is not a time for heroic assumptions. It's a time for competence, humility, and discipline. If you must deploy capital, do so with sponsors who have been through a major downturn GFC style, and focus on those who didn’t make capital calls, who still generate yield, and who underwrite to reality, not to hope. The next 2–3 years may be rocky. But the long term still belongs to those who survive the short term. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get:
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