The Real Story

This week a meeting of Arab foreign ministers - including Syria's - took place in Jordan's capital, Amman. Officials have been discussing Syria's potential return to the Arab League, after 12 years of civil war. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians are dead, millions are refugees abroad, and a political settlement to the conflict remains elusive. But some of Syria’s neighbours are now keen to build closer relations with the Syrian regime.

A tentative normalisation of relations with President Assad has been years in the making. So what is driving it? What might a change in international relations mean for ordinary Syrians? And what does this diplomacy reveal about politics and power in the region?

Shaun Ley is joined by a panel of expert guests:

Rime Allaf - a Syrian-born writer and a former fellow at the Chatham House international affairs think tank in London. She is also a Board Member of the Syrian civil society organization The Day After

Also featuring:

Jawad Anani, an economist and Jordan's former foreign minister and deputy prime minister

Joel Rayburn, President Trump's special Envoy for Syria from 2018 to 2021

Photo: Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia meets Bashar al-Assad on April 18, 2023 in Damascus, Syria. (Credit: Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministry/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Tunisia in North Africa was the birthplace of the Arab Spring, a wave of popular uprisings that shook or toppled authoritarian regimes in the region. But, after a decade of fragile democracy, in 2019 a new strongman, President Kais Saied, swept to power. He directed his campaign at young Tunisians, promising an end to corruption.

There was optimism but the Covid pandemic had battered the economy and exposed - as it did in many other countries - the weaknesses of the health system. Mr Saied insisted Tunisia's democratic system was not working so he used emergency powers to sack the prime minister, close the National Assembly and suspend the constitution - essentially paving the way to rule by decree.

Last week one of Tunisia’s most prominent opposition leaders, Rached Ghannouchi, who is also the leader of Tunisia’s largest political party, was imprisoned. He's the latest in a long line of critics jailed by the president. So, is this the final nail in the coffin for Tunisia’s fledgling democracy? What is President’s Saied’s vision? And what, if anything, can the world do to prevent the Arab Spring's one success story joining its long list of failures?

Shaun Ley is joined by:

Nadia Marzouki, a political scientist and tenured researcher at Sciences Po in Paris

Ghazi Ben Ahmed, a Tunisian economist and the founder of the Brussels-based think-tank Mediterranean Development Initiative

Monica Marks, assistant professor of Middle East politics at New York University in Abu Dhabi

Also featuring:

Yusra Ghannouchi, the daughter of Rached Ghannouchi

Nabil Ammar, the Tunisian Foreign Minister

Elizia Volkmann, journalist in Tunis

Photo: The 67th anniversary of Tunisia's Independence, Tunis - 20 Mar 2023

Produced by Pandita Lorenz and Rumella Dasgupta

Hundreds of civilians have been killed in fierce fighting between army troops and paramilitary forces in Sudan this week. The fighting that has erupted in the capital Khartoum and elsewhere in the country is a direct result of a vicious power struggle within the country's military leadership. Aid agencies say it's nearly impossible to provide humanitarian assistance to people and the health system is close to collapse.

So what's led to this crisis? Who controls the country at the moment? And who are the key international players who can exert influence?

Shaun Ley is joined by :

Dame Rosalind Marsden, associate fellow at the Chatham House International Affairs think tank in London, a former EU Special Representative for Sudan and South Sudan and also Britain's former Ambassador to Sudan.

Murithi Mutiga, project director, Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group.

Mohanad Hashim, BBC journalist and expert on Sudan

Also featuring :

Cameron Hudson, director of the US State Department's Africa Bureau in George W. Bush's administration. He also served as chief of staff to successive presidential envoys during the Darfur insurgency and the secession of what become South Sudan in 2011.

Tagreed Abdin, an architect who lives with her family in Khartoum.

James Copnall, BBC's correspondent in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum from 2009-2012.

Producers : Rumella Dasgupta and Ellen Otzen

Russia's arrest of the American journalist Evan Gershkovich for spying has shone a spotlight on what the US calls 'hostage diplomacy', a practice which involves imprisoning a foreign national, usually on spurious or exaggerated charges in order to extract concessions from that person’s government.

The increase of hostage diplomacy—by China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea—recently prompted President Biden to declare it a national emergency.

This week the US announced that Mr Gershkovich is being held in Russia as “wrongfully detained”, a finding that means the American government sees him as a political hostage.

As the number of detentions has increased, the US has become more willing to strike deals with foreign governments to free US nationals. Last year’s high-profile prisoner swap of US basketball star Brittney Griner and Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout was hailed by some as a diplomatic success story. But critics say it sets a dangerous precedent, arguing that prisoner exchanges simply encourage hostile powers to arbitrarily arrest more foreign nationals.

Meanwhile, another US citizen accused of spying remains in a Russian prison. Former US marine Paul Whelan was given a 16-year jail sentence in 2020 after being arrested in Moscow in 2018.

So what determines who is selected for prisoner swaps? Are prisoner swaps a good solution to a painful dilemma, or do they mean that authoritarian states simply will detain more foreigners seeking a trade-off from western countries?

Photo:Evan Gershkovich, US reporter for The Wall Street Journal. Credit: Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP

Shaun Ley is joined by:

Dr Danielle Gilbert, fellow in US foreign policy and International security at Dartmouth college in New Hampshire

Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert was detained on a visit to Iran where she was held for two years. She's now a visiting fellow in security studies at Sydney University, Australia.

Professor Colleen Graffy was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy travelling around 40 countries in Europe and Eurasia, making America's case on behalf of George W.Bush's Administration. She is a law professor at Pepperdine Caruso Law School.

also featuring:

US diplomat Bill Richardson, director the Richardson Center which helps negotiate the release of US political prisoners and hostages held overseas. He's a former governor of the US state of New Mexico.

Baroness Shami Chakrabarti, Labour Party politician, barrister, and human rights activist in the UK.

Producers: Ellen Otzen and Rumella Dasgupta.

Last month a company in San Francisco called OpenAi released an artificial intelligence system called GPT-4 - a successor to its hugely popular AI chatbot ChatGPT. The latest version can respond to images, write captions and descriptions - processing up to 25,000 words at a time. Researchers claim GPT-4 shows “sparks of artificial general intelligence” - in other words it can match or exceed human capabilities in tasks a person can do.

But there are concerns this latest technology could be used to spread disinformation alongside worries over privacy, jobs and even society itself if more rules aren’t quickly introduced. Key figures in the tech industry - including Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, and Apple’s co-founder Steve Wozniak - have signed an open letter asking for a pause on “giant AI experiments” so that policymakers can catch up.

There are potentially wide-ranging benefits to these advances. In recently published guidance on the responsible use of AI, the UK government described it as one of the "technologies of tomorrow” contributing £3.7bn ($5.6bn) to the UK economy last year alone.

So what might the social impact of these increasingly powerful AI systems be? If greater regulation is needed, who is responsible? And, if we don’t control it, is there a chance that one day these machines will outsmart and replace us?

Celia Hatton is joined by:

Prof Yoshua Bengio - professor at the Department of Computer Science and Operations Research at the Université de Montréal

Boaz Barak - the Gordon McKay Professor of Computer Science at Harvard University

Lindsay Gorman - a former advisor to the Biden administration on tech strategy. She's currently a Senior Fellow for Emerging Technologies at the German Marshall Fund's Alliance for Securing Democracy in Washington DC

Also featuring:

Greg Clark – a Conservative MP and chair of the UK government’s science and technology committee

Photo: Ai-Da Robot poses for pictures with a self portrait in the Houses of Parliament in London before making history as the first robot to speak at the House of Lords / Credit: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

Produced by Pandita Lorenz and Ellen Otzen

At the end of a friendly meeting in Moscow, President Xi of China told President Putin of Russia that they are driving changes in the world the likes of which have not been seen for a century.

Meanwhile this week President Biden kicked off a Summit for Democracy with $690m funding pledge to democracies all over the world and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, called on Europe to reassess its diplomatic and economic relations with China before a visit to Beijing next week.

So what changes are President Xi talking about? Who will be running the world in 20 years time? Is conflict between rival powers inevitable? And is the model of western liberal democracy in decline?

Owen Bennett-Jones is joined by:

Evelyn Farkas - an American national security advisor, author, and foreign policy analyst. She is the current Executive Director of the McCain Institute, a nonprofit organisation focused on democracy, human rights, and leadership. Evelyn served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia under President Obama

Martin Wolf - chief economics commentator at the Financial Times and author of The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism

Professor Steve Tsang - political scientist and historian and Director of the China Institute at the SOAS University of London

Also featuring:

Henry Wang - founder and director of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a think tank with links to the Chinese Communist Party

Nathalie Tocci - director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali and an honorary professor at the University of Tübingen

Photo: Russia's Putin holds talks with China's Xi in the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023 / Credit: Reuters

Produced by Rumella Dasgupta and Pandita Lorenz

Clashes this week between police and supporters of former cricketer-turned-Prime Minister, Imran Khan, show once again the deep divisions within Pakistani politics.

Mr Khan was ousted as prime minister last April in a no-confidence vote but has kept up pressure on his successor, Mr Sharif, with demonstrations calling for early elections and blaming him for an assassination attempt - an accusation the government denies. Mr Khan faces multiple court cases, including terrorism charges, but has cited a variety of reasons for not showing up to hearings.

Meanwhile Pakistan is in the middle of one of the worst economic crises ever seen. The country is awaiting a much-needed bailout package of $1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund - a loan that has been delayed over issues related to fiscal policy. The security situation is also deteriorating with a spate of deadly attacks on police, linked to the Pakistan Taliban.

So what, if anything, might resolve the political stand-off? What impact does ongoing instability have on Pakistan’s economic situation and could this all play into the hands of Pakistan’s Taliban? How much support does Imran Khan really have from the military - or could the army’s longstanding hold on Pakistan finally be challenged?

Owen Bennett-Jones is joined by:

General Muhammad Haroon Aslam, a retired army general. He was a Corps Commander in the Pakistani army and served in the military for 40 years

Atika Rehman, London correspondent for Dawn newspaper

Also featuring:

Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, senator for the The Pakistan Muslim League, part of the ruling coalition, and a former prime minister

(Photo: Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks with Reuters during an interview in Lahore, Pakistan 17 March, 2023. Credit: Akhtar Soomro/Reuters)

Millions of people around the world are on the move today in search of a safe and better life. It’s estimated over 100 million people were displaced last year. Over 30 million are refugees and 5 million are asylum seekers. The UN body for refugees says 72% of the refugees originate from just five countries: Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Afghanistan and South Sudan. These refugees are often fleeing persecution, conflict, violence, natural disasters and human rights violations. They make the dangerous journey across land and sea to seek asylum in other countries. Over the years, thousands have died or gone missing in the the Mediterranean trying to reach Europe. While, with help from the UNHCR and host countries, many get legal status and are settled, thousands are held in processing centres and camps, often for years. We discuss problems with the current international asylum system and ask what would a fair global asylum system could look like?

Owen Bennett Jones is joined by:

Gerald Knaus - the founding chairman of German think tank The European Stability Initiative.

Jeff Crisp - former head of policy development and evaluation at the UNHCR.

Dr Ashwini Vasanthakumar - author of The Ethics of Exile: A Political Theory of Diaspora. She writes on the ethics and politics of migration.

Also featuring:

Alexander Downer - Australia's former foreign minister.

Ylenja Lucaselli - A member of the Italian Parliament for Fratelli d'Italia.

(Photo: The number of people crossing the English Channel has risen in recent years. Credit: PA)

Producer: Rozita Riazati and Rumella Dasgupta.

A new Brexit deal for Northern Ireland has been announced. The Windsor Framework replaces the Northern Ireland Protocol - that was deemed unworkable, but does this new deal solve Northern Ireland's trading arrangements?

In his speech in Windsor, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said his new framework agreement had "removed any sense of a border in the Irish Sea". It is true that Northern Ireland consumers should certainly have no sense of a border when it comes to buying food, plants and medicines or taking their dog on the ferry to Scotland. But it will still be a trade border of sorts. Moving goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland remains conditional: it will require signing up to trusted trader schemes, providing information on what goods are moving and having the correct labelling.

But given the constraints the UK set itself back in 2017 - a hard Brexit with no land border on the island of Ireland - that may be as good as it gets.

Chris Morris is joined by:

Raoul Ruparel, special advisor on Europe to former UK Prime Minister Theresa May from 2018-19.

Tony Connolly, Europe Editor for Ireland's national broadcaster RTE. He is the author of Brexit & Ireland: The Dangers, the Opportunities, and the Inside Story of the Irish Response.

Professor Danuta Hübner, a Polish MEP and a member of the European Parliament’s UK Contact Group .

Also featuring:

Sammy Wilson, Democratic Unionist Party MP for East Antrim and DUP chief whip

Image: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen during a press conference at the Guildhall in Windsor, Berkshire, following the announcement that they have struck a deal over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Credit: PA

Producers: Imogen Wallace and Pandita Lorenz

Last year China's population fell for the first time in 60 years with the national birth rate hitting a record low.

Producer: Pandita Lorenz and Ellen Otzen

(Photo: China's Sichuan province shifts birth control policies, Shanghai, 31 Jan 2023. Credit: Alex Plavevski/EPA-EFE/Rex/Shutterstock)