Tech is starting to crack and value is outperforming. Where should you be positioned? On this special episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, the show heads to Phoenix, Arizona for a special on-the-road episode with Bill and Cole Smead of Smead Capital Management, the father-son investing team behind $5.5 billion in assets under management. In a wide-ranging and candid conversation, the duo explains why today’s market setup looks increasingly fragile and where disciplined value investors are still finding opportunity. 

Amber digs into Smead’s eight criteria for stock selection, how insider ownership and capital allocation drive long-term returns, and why years of crowding into passive strategies and the S&P 500 have quietly increased risk. They argue that the forces that powered years of U.S. outperformance — concentration, momentum, and passive flows — now look increasingly vulnerable. From the parallels between today’s AI spending boom and the telecom bubble of the late 1990s to their view that capital-intensive tech could face declining returns, Bill and Cole make the case that history may not repeat — but it certainly rhymes.

The discussion also explores why international markets look more compelling than the U.S., how under-owned sectors like financials, healthcare, housing, and commodities could benefit from mean reversion, and why owning unpopular assets — and holding winners longer than feels comfortable — remains central to their approach.

In the Mailbag, the Smeads tackle viewer questions and specific stocks across regions and sectors, including European banks Barclays (BARC) and UniCredit (UCG), healthcare giant Merck (MRK), and Canadian energy names Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE). They explain why scars from past cycles often create today’s best opportunities — and where investors should still be cautious.

In Pro Picks, Bill and Cole share several high-conviction ideas that reflect their current positioning, including regional bank Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), U.S. healthcare leader UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Canadian oil producer Strathcona Resources (SCR), and Canadian lumber company West Fraser Timber (WFG) — names they believe offer attractive long-term value supported by balance sheets, capital discipline, and structural tailwinds.

Timestamps

00:00 Show trailer 

03:45 intro with father son duo Bill & Cole Smead
04:10 U.S. & international exposure
08:35 Are we seeing the end of U.S. outperformance?
11:10 How has Smead Capital’s view evolved? Have they been bullish up until this spot?
15:50 Why they are not as constructive on the S&P 500 

17:20 Will 2026 be the year of the value investor? And what tech stocks do they own? 

19:50 Are the Magnificent 7 the Nortel of this generation? It’s about Capex
21:35 History doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes 

24:20 too many fools are chasing tech stocks, it will all change over the next decade
29:50 What about commodities?
34:10 ITM Mailbag: European Banks (BARC, UCG)
37:55 Merck stock (MRK), Amgen stock (AMGN), United Healthcare stock (UNH)
45:00 Homebuilder stocks (DHI, LEN) 

46:20 Canadian energy stocks (CVE)

49:00 Tamarack Valley stock (TVE)

54:50 Bill & Cole’s Pro Picks (FITB, APA, UNH, SCR, WFG)

Sponsors
For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned.

Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial.  Visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information

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DISCLAIMERS 

The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions. In this episode we discuss United Health and Tamarack Valley Energy which are both stocks Amber owns. 

In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.

Contact: [email protected]

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