The Ricochet Superfeed

Midterms are just days away, so it's busy season for everyone in the election prediction biz. This week, there's no rant and no ads; just Henry and a couple of sleep-deprived friends to help you get your bearings ahead of another high-stakes cycle. First up is Sean Patrick Maloney—former U.S. Ambassador to the OECD and the CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets. He joins to explain the derivative markets that have shaken up polling. Next, Cook Political's Jessica Taylor surveys the Senate seats swinging in the balance. And lastly, Scott Braddock of The Quorum Report drops in to discuss the uncharacteristically tight races in Texas.

Be sure to follow Henry on X to catch his Election Night livestream! We'll be up reporting the returns from poll closures on the Atlantic and remain until the Alaskans have their say.

With the midterm elections approaching, the war in Iran could be entering a decisive phase. Victor Davis Hanson examines the possibility of renewed U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran’s remaining military capabilities and the mounting economic pressure on the regime.

As President Donald Trump weighs his next move, the coming weeks could determine whether Iran’s military threat is eliminated or the conflict continues for years to come.

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Erick Erickson sounds the alarm on early voting data in Georgia, where Keisha Lance Bottoms could beat Rick Jackson for governor if Republicans stay home, and where the same weak GOP turnout shows up in Iowa, Ohio, Texas and North Carolina. He weighs Patrick Ruffini's numbers against a 3.4 percent third quarter GDP report, a likely December interest rate hike from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, and why tariffs, grocery prices and wages trailing inflation hurt Republicans heading into the midterm elections. Plus data center spending, the college work ethic problem, and a possible Canada trade deal.

• Georgia early voting: Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick Jackson, Secretary of State turnout data, Fulton, Clayton and Liberty counties, weak rural and exurban Republican turnout, and absentee ballot requests
• Patrick Ruffini's national early vote tracker: 33 million ballots cast, Democratic surge in North Carolina and Georgia, and why Erick still thinks Republicans can narrowly hold the Senate (Ken Paxton, Mike Collins, Michael Whatley)
• Third quarter GDP at 3.4 percent, the data center building boom driving concrete prices, Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve on a December rate hike, Scott Bessent, and tariffs hurting the GOP
• Grocery price tracking in swing counties by Liz Mayer, wages six months behind inflation, and the affordability problem for Republicans
• College graduates and work ethic, the return of the Blue Book exam, Microsoft layoffs, and why Chick-fil-A alumni and classical education produce better workers
• Canada, the European Union and a possible Trump trade deal, plus a surge in Republican turnout in northern border states for Susan Collins and Mike Rogers

Erick Erickson digs into the New York Times report that Mary Peltola's campaign, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee aides, and the Elias Law Group ran a "Ballot Composition Project" to put a second Dan Sullivan on Alaska's ranked choice ballot, and why he thinks the press is shrugging it off. He also covers Troy Jackson's Maine logging company that turns out to be a union consulting firm and the laundromat owner misled into his ad against Susan Collins, Abdul El-Sayed and Peggy Flanagan donor ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, and why he is leaving the Georgia Senate line blank. Plus a salute to the Milwaukee Brewers' World Series win.

• Alaska Senate race: Mary Peltola, the Ballot Composition Project, two Dan Sullivans, Jared Kurtz, Mark Elias, the DSCC, Dana Bash on CNN, and the Justice Department's weak certification case
• Why ranked choice voting invites ballot stacking, from Alaska to New York City, and why Erick says it confuses voters and erodes trust in elections
• Maine Senate race: Troy Jackson's logging company that is really a consulting firm paid by the International Association of Machinists, and the Scarborough laundromat owner misled into a Troy Jackson ad against Susan Collins
• Michigan and Minnesota Democrats: Abdul El-Sayed, Peggy Flanagan, Muslim Brotherhood donor ties, Haley Stevens on CNN, plus Dave Jolly and James Talarico on transgender athletes in girls sports
• Why Erick is not voting in the Georgia Senate race, rising antisemitism and extremism on both sides, and a congratulations to the Milwaukee Brewers on a small market World Series win over the big spending Dodgers and Mets model

Erick Erickson breaks down the New York Times report that Obama-era FBI and Homeland Security investigators found evidence Rep. Ilhan Omar's 2009 marriage was fraudulent, why the statute of limitations stalled the case, and how Chief Judge James Boasberg is handling the sealed search warrant fight. He also takes listener calls on the border wall, munitions production, and Anduril founder Palmer Luckey's case that America should build weapons with the factories it already has, plus China, the power grid, and Taiwan.

• Ilhan Omar investigation: the New York Times report on an Obama-era FBI and Department of Homeland Security probe of her marriage to Ahmed Nur Said Elmi, the five-year statute of limitations, the Chris Hayes interview, and Erick's pattern-of-fraud theory involving her father's immigration status and her passport renewals
• Judge James Boasberg and the Justice Department: the sealed search warrant for Omar's home, 14 news organizations and Judicial Watch seeking access, the October 30 response deadline, and why a judge hostile to the Trump administration is still letting the investigation slow roll
• Anduril and Palmer Luckey: why American defense manufacturing should build weapons from existing factories like World War Two Jeeps and John Deere rockets, how Ukraine builds millions of cheap drones, and General Motors turning around munitions in six weeks
• Listener calls: border wall progress under the Trump administration, Rick Perry on surveillance and drones, the canceled migrant caravan, and a Dayton, Ohio caller on hypersonic missiles and what the United States does not advertise
• Power grid and Taiwan: the military preparing every installation to run off grid for 90 days, Chinese infiltration of the power grid, water supply and telecom, Europe's warnings about Russia, and Erick's case for being prepared without fear, plus Matt Gaetz and the Cheesecake Factory

Does having two under two make you a real parent? Bethany and Kara explore that and Kara brings the surprisingly sympathetic details of attending "SlutCon."

Join Greg and Scot Bertram for the Thursday 3 Martini Lunch as they discuss evidence Alaska Democrats deliberately sought to sow confusion among voters in this year's U.S. Senate race, another high-profile Democratic defection away from Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Democrats in Philadelphia learning absolutely nothing from the 2008 financial crisis, & the very different values between voters in the two major parties.

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Hasan Piker is reportedly taking legal action against Scott Jennings, and his comments about JD Vance have the Chicks questioning whether he has ANY self-awareness. Meanwhile, Alaska is facing a bizarre election controversy involving TWO candidates named Dan Sullivan, Trump is calling for consequences, and the Chicks are breaking down what it could mean for voters. But that's just the beginning! James O'Keefe and Cam Higbie are facing felony charges in Minnesota, Hillary Clinton is talking about investigating Trump after the midterms, and Rashida Tlaib and Abdul El-Sayed are raising eyebrows with their comments on reparations, Palestine, and Syria. PLUS, we've got a heated Texas post office confrontation, student protesters at Erika Kirk's Club America event, a controversial immigration clip involving Bill Clinton, and some absolutely UNHINGED moments from the internet. And because it's the Chicks, we're also talking Melania Trump's first date with Donald, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson's book controversy, politicians getting rated on their looks, and why y'all need to be careful with those AI-filtered profile pictures!

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In this episode, we are joined by Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade to discuss the themes of his new book, Uniting the States: Six Crucial Moments That Forged the American Miracle. We explore pivotal events that have shaped American history and national identity. Our discussion connects stories of the American founding to modern foreign policy lessons and unity today. How does modern patriotism look compared to the spirit of our Founding Fathers? Is America the place it once was? And do we still have the spirit to lead the world?

Speaker, best-selling author, TV and radio personality Brian Kilmeade currently serves as co-host of Fox News Channel's FOX & Friends and as host of Kilmeade and Friends. Prior to joining in 1997, Kilmeade has worked at NEWSPORT TV, the independent station WLIG-TV in New York, KHSL-TV in Ontario, CA, The Jim Brown Show on XTRA-AM, and Channel One. Kilmeade is the author of several New York Times bestselling books, including "Thomas Jefferson and the Tripoli Pirates", "Andrew Jackson and the Miracle of New Orleans" and "George Washington's Secret Six: The Spy Ring That Saved The American Revolution.” Brian Kilmeade received a B.A. from Long Island University.

Read the transcript here.

Subscribe to our Substack here.

The Office of Refugee Resettlement is working to locate hundreds of thousands of Unaccompanied Alien Children (UACs) who entered the United States during the Biden administration and were placed with sponsors without adequate vetting.

John Fabbricatore, a special advisor at the Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR), joins host and executive director of the Center, Mark Krikorian, in this episode of Parsing Immigration Policy to discuss the effort to locate these children, investigate reports of abuse and trafficking, and improve his department’s ability to vet sponsors.

Among the topics discussed:

• The effort to locate UACs: Fabbricatore describes the Trump administration’s efforts to locate children placed with sponsors during the Biden administration.
• Reports of abuse, neglect, and trafficking: Fabbricatore discusses thousands of notices of concern involving children, including reports of possible human trafficking, abuse, sexual abuse, and medical emergencies.
• TVPRA: Krikorian and Fabbricatore discuss the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act (TVPRA), which generally treats children from contiguous countries differently from children arriving from noncontiguous countries.
• Legal representation for children: The speakers discuss a recent controversy over a child appearing in immigration court without legal representation, the federal government's previous contract for legal services, and efforts to establish alternative arrangements.

Krikorian concludes the episode by discussing a federal case involving alleged staged armed robberies organized to help illegal aliens fraudulently qualify for U visas, which are available to certain crime victims who assist law enforcement. He argues that the case illustrates the broader issue of fraud in the immigration system.

Host

Mark Krikorian is the Executive Director of the Center for Immigration Studies.

Guest

John Fabbricatore is a Special Advisor at the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR).

Links

HHS Office of Refugee Resettlement Identifies Six Types of Fraud in the Biden Administration’s Unaccompanied Alien Children Program

EXCLUSIVE: Fed timeline challenges reports of migrant baby facing immigration judge alone

HHS Rapid Response

Suburban Chicago Man Sentenced to Two Years in Federal Prison for Staging Robberies To Help Others Fraudulently Apply for Immigration Visas

How a Visa for Crime Victims Became a De Facto Amnesty

Intro Montage

Voices in the opening montage:

• Sen. Barack Obama at a 2005 press conference.
• Sen. John McCain in a 2010 election ad.
• President Lyndon Johnson, upon signing the 1965 Immigration Act.
• Booker T. Washington, reading in 1908 from his 1895 Atlanta Exposition speech.
• Laraine Newman as a "Conehead" on SNL in 1977.
• Hillary Clinton in a 2003 radio interview.
• Cesar Chavez in a 1974 interview.
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaking to reporters in 2019.
• Prof. George Borjas in...