The Synopsis

On our very first interview we talk with Mostly Borrowed Ideas in a wide spanning interview on Meta, Google, Microsoft, and investment decision quality. Mostly Borrowed Ideas writes a deep-dive on a publically traded company every month. You can find more out about him and his writings here.

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(2:37) Meta, Risks, Tiktok, ATT, Metaverse

(26:22) Google, Sundar Pichai, Capital Allocation

(33:52) Google Risks

(46:59) What is a Great Business?

(59:19) Owners versus Managers

(1:08:45) Investment Process Improved through Writing

(1:18:57) Conclusion

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Find out more about MBI at https://www.mbi-deepdives.com

Buy Speedwell Meta Single Research Report

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

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Mentioned Links

Speedwell's Memo on Wish

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Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we talk about how investment risks could impact an investment thesis through the lens of Etsy and Meta. We provide a short "timeless" update on both companies as well.

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Show Notes

(0:00) Important Announcement

(0:41) Intro

(3:33) Etsy Value Prop, Issues, and Temu Read-through

(16:41) Meta Risks and The One Thing Investors Needed To Be Sure Of

(26:33) How to Gain Clarity with Meta Circa 2022

(34:20) Conclusion

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Buy Meta Single Research Report

Buy Etsy Single Research Report

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

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Mentioned Links

The Synopsis Meta Company Podcast (Apple, Spotify)

The Synopsis Etsy Company Podcast (Apple, Spotify)

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Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/etsy-business-history

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Important Announcement

(0:45) – Intro

(1:36) – Article Reading Starts

(30:31) – Closing Comments

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Purchase Etsy Research Report

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all of Speedwell's Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.

Speedwell's free newsletter can be found here.

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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

Charlie Munger talks about the Latticework of Mental Models and how having exposure to many different disciplines helps gain insight into problems. Key to connecting different disciplines though, is the metaphor.

This week, on The Synopsis, we talk about our two Piton Network business philosophy pieces. The Piton Network is our attempt to create a metaphor that furthers investors and analysts understanding of business and strategy.

Our first memo is The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space. You can read it here.

Our second memo is Meta-Optimizations: Knowing When a Business is Operating from Strength or Weakness. You can read it here.

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:00) What is a Piton

(4:21) Decision Clusters, Southwest

(11:03) Floor & Decor, Copy Cats, Lowes

(17:53) Amazon vs Wal-Mart delivery

(20:22) Jim McKelvey's Innovation Stack, Square vs Amazon

(24:37) Pulling Out Pitons, Netflix

(32:28) Ford vs Tesla, Complexity, Piton Network vs Value Network

(43:35) Value of Metaphor

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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our in-depth research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter: https://www.speedwellmemos.com

Mentioned Links:

Speedwell's First Consumer Hierarchy of Preferences Memo

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks article is Meta-Optimizations: Knowing When a Business is Operating From Strength or Weakness

Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/meta-optimizations-knowing-when-a

*Please note that this memo builds off a concept introduced early in The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space. If you want to listen to this memo first, click here for Apple and here for Spotify links.

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:21) –Memo Reading Starts

(29:58) – Closing Comments

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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell's Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.

Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.

Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.

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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

This week on The Synopsis, we talk about a recent memo, "The Future of Ecommerce That Wasn't: An In-depth Look into What Went Wrong with Wish".

In this conversation we talk about Wish and what lessons we cannot draw from their lack of success. We also talk about our LTV and financial analaysis, as well as what Wish's value prop was compared to other competitors.

You can read the Full Memo here.

You can become a full Speedwell Research Member here.

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:11) Memo background

(4:09) Wish Pitch and Value Prop

(9:12) Putting Business Failure into Proper Context

(16:10) Growth vs Maintenece Marketing

(25:14) LTV Analysis and Buyer Churn

(30:42) What Happened to Wish

(32:26) Main Lessons

(37:36) Conclusion

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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our in-depth research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter: https://www.speedwellmemos.com

Mentioned Links:

Chinese Ecommerce GMV Accounting Piece: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/accounting-insights-alibaba-jd-and

Interview with Peter Szulczewski: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1LzKGJ0bNU

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. There are several charts and excels in this memo that may be helpful to look at for more comprehensive understanding.

This weeks article is The Future of Ecommerce That Wasn't: An In-depth Look into What Went Wrong with Wish

Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/the-future-of-ecommerce-that-wasnt

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(1:04) - Housekeeping/ Upcoming

(1:38) –Memo Reading Starts

(29:46) – Closing Comments

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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Gain access to Speedwell's Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this podcast on Evolution, Speedwell Research draws on their 74-page report to cover everything from the company's inception experimenting with a single roulette wheel to a global business with 60%+ margins. Studying this extremely unique business will teach listeners about the importance of value chain positioning, using negotiating leverage, and how to maintain a very lucrative business in a highly competitive industry. Everyone says the house aways wins, but not in the online casino world where it is the supplier, and Evolution is the largest supplier. We hope you enjoy!

Company Description: B2B supplier in the online casino space specializing in the live casino vertical.

Purchase the full Evolution Report here.

Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.

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Show Notes

Section 1: History and Background

(0:00) Intro

(2:20) Evolution High-Level Business Description

(5:01) Evolution History and Background

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Section 2: TAM and Market Differences

(35:32) TAM Overview

(40:05) Grey and Black Markets

(44:38) Aggregators

(53:35) North America Regulation

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Section 3: Business Model

(1:00:59) How they Make Money

(1:05:07) How Evolution Differentiates

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Section 4: Competition

(1:17:55) Competition Overview

(1:22:33) Playtech

(1:31:42) Vertical Integration

(1:39:10) Pragmatic

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Section 5: Capital Allocation, Valuation & Risks.

(1:47:30) Capital Allocation and ROIC

(1:51:35) Acquisitions and Slot Business

(1:59:37) Risks

(2:04:47) Valuation

(2:06:39) Bull/ Bear Case

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Purchase Speedwell's EVO Report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/12/19/evolution/

Become a full Speedwell Research Member here: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Articles Mentioned

Speedwell's Memo Introducing the Piton Idea: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-piton-network-decisions-that

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Evolution. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Evolution. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this episode of The Synopsis we read a Speedwell Research memo from our backlog. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.

This weeks article is 10 Lessons from Copart's 40 Years in Business: Learning from Willis Johnson and Jay Adair

Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/10-lessons-from-coparts-40-years

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Show Notes

(0:00) – Intro

(0:55) – Memo Reading Starts

(20:30) – Closing Comments

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Purchase Speedwell's Copart Report Here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/05/22/copart-deep-dive/

Gain access to Speedwell's Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

This week on The Synopsis, we talk about a recent memo, "Google Shut the Door on Competition, AI Swung it Back Open".

We cover some old threats to Google's Search dominance and how AI catalyzes them. This show is in our Dialogue format, which you can expect more of in the coming future. We hope you enjoy!

You can read the Full Memo Here.

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(0:51) Memo background

(3:10) Product Encroachment

(9:12) Two Way Google Historically Competed

(11:05) Form Function Changes

(15:03) AI Threats and How AI is Changing Things

(16:42) Facebook's Platform Shift

(24:40) AI risks to Sponsored Link Business

(28:06) Todd Combs, Charlie Munger, What Can Investors Assume?

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Buy Speedwell Research's Meta Report: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/01/17/meta-platforms-deep-dive/

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of this writing, one or more contributers to the podcast has a position in Google. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Google. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/