The Synopsis

This week on The Synopsis, we introduce our Consumer's Hierarchy of Preferences framework in a new episode format. The Consumer's Hierarchy of Preferences is a helpful idea for investors and entrepreneurs to better understand the market, their products, and competitors' offerings. You can check out our original writing introducing the idea here.

This show is the first of our "Dialogue" format, which will be episodes focused on business frameworks or other investing ideas. We will return with a Deep Dive on a specific company next time. We hope you enjoy!

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro, New Show Concept

(1:37) Explaining the Consumer's Hierarchy of Preferences

(7:26) Product Market Fit Through a Different Lens, Where the Jobs Framework Fits In

(11:34) Chipotle versus Taco Bell Example

(14:38) Etsy's Consumer's Hierarchy of Preferences

(16:43) Cash Flow Durability, Consumer Surplus as Churn Mitigation

(21:23) Brands, See's Candy, Fulfilling Psychological Needs

(24:51) Real World Applications of the Framework, Chipotle Again, Retail Apparel Companies

(29:17) More Examples, Amazon, Fine Dishware, Temu, Shein, Depop, Facebook Marketplace

(32:50) Sustainability as a Potential Preference, Tesla, Patagonia, Allbirds

(36:15) Summarizing Key Aspects of the Framework and When to Implement

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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/

Our first Consumer's Hierarchy of Preferences Piece: https://speedwellresearch.com/2022/11/18/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-the-other-side-of-the-consumer-value-prop/

Our second Consumer's Hierarchy of Preferences Piece: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/02/04/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-two-ends-of-the-strategy-spectrum/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this podcast on Copart, Speedwell Research covers everything from Founder Willis Johnson's early business career to the industry dynamics, and how Copart became the global, salvage marketplace auction leader. Investors can learn a lot from Willis Johnson's early business intuition and movement from the lowest wrung of the salvage vehicle value chain as a liquidator to ultimately a critical service provider for insurance companies. We draw on Speedwell's 85 page report, released in May 2023, to teach not just about Copart's business, strategy, and formidable competitive advantages, but also to parse out cultural factors that distinguish truly great companies. We hope you enjoy!

(Please note that about 1/3rd into the podcast, the sound quality periodically declines. It then improves towards the last 1/3rd of the podcast. We apologize for this and have identified the issue for future recordings.)

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(2:19) Willis Johnson Background History and Early Career

(9:19) BTS Auctions: The Beginnings of Copart

(14:12) Changing the Business Model to Align Incentives

(17:57) How Jay Adair was Introduced to Copart

(18:40) Copart's Early Expansion

(24:09) Experimenting with Internet Auctions in the 90's

(29:43) CAT Events and Copart's Ethics

(38:33) Industry Overview

(50:23) IAA History, IPO, Private Buyout, Merging with KAR, Spin-off, and Ritchie Bros Acquisition

(1:07:26) Copart vs IAA, Competitive and Cultural Differences, Market Share

(1:24:06) Financials

(1:27:12) Capital Allocation, Growth Assumptions

(1:30:58) ROIC and variations compared to IAA

(1:34:00) International, Details on How the German Market is Different, Barriers to International Growth

(1:45:27) Other Business Initiatives

(1:51:22) Growth Expectations and the Reverse DCF

(1:53:40) Risks, Autonomous Vehicles

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Purchase Speedwell's full ~22,000 word CPRT report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/05/22/copart-deep-dive/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in CPRT. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in CPRT. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this podcast on RH, Speedwell Research covers everything from Restoration Hardware's beginnings as just a catalog in a personal living room to massive multi-story Galleries with restaurants that generate >$10mn. Investors can learn much from the early business failings, as well as the incredible turnaround and business transformation Gary Friedman led. We draw on Speedwell's 86 page research report, released in March 2023, to teach you not just about RH, but also about novel customer acquisition strategies, the dangers of promotions, how to build a coherent consumer value prop, and show how changing a business's strategy requires reworking every element of the company. Enjoy!

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(1:31) Early Founding History, Novel Customer Acquisition Strategy

(5:48) First IPO in 1998

(8:23) Restoration Hardware Model Starts to Break

(9:29) Gary Friedman Background and Takeover of Restoration Hardware

(14:43) Initial Business Changes Friedman Makes

(18:32) Second IPO in 2012, Starting to Envision a Luxury Retailer

(24:27) Ascent of Luxury Mountain, The Mega Gallery Strategy

(26:43) Solving a Key Business Shortcoming, The King Midas Problem, What Meituan has in Common with RH

(32:26) Source Book Strategy and When Mailing a 540 Page Catalog Makes Sense

(35:12) Growing Pain Period, Reworking Key Elements of the Business

(45:13) RH Membership and the Problems with Promotions

(52:07) What Job RH Does, The Consumer's Hierarchy of Preference

(54:35) The Value Capture Index and How to Assess Retailer's Pricing Strategies, Competition, Disadvantages of Ecommerce

(1:06:03) ROIC and Margins, Reverse DCF, Revenue Build

(1:14:50) RH Brand Extensions, Private Jets and Yacht, Guesthouse

(1:20:45) Acquisitions, Waterworks, Apple vs LVMH Model

(1:26:05) What Could the Business Look Like in 10 Years?

(1:27:46) Pre-Mortem

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Purchase Speedwell's full ~21,000 word RH report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/03/22/rh-deep-dive/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

Free Piece on The Value Capture Index: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-dc6

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in RH. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in RH. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/

In this inaugural podcast, Speedwell Research goes into details on their ~170 page, January 2023 report on Meta Platforms ($META). We cover a list of questions including 1) how resilient are social networks and why did Friendster and MySpace disapear? 2) how does ad tech work and did Apple's policies permanently impair Meta? 3) what "job" does Facebook and Instagram do? 4) is the metaverse a dealbreaker for investors? 5) and much more.

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Show Notes

(0:00) Intro

(3:09) History: Six Degrees, Friendster, MySpace, and early Facebook

(28:32) Jobs to Be Done: What consumer needs does Facebook serve and the degradation of the network

(44:57) Meta's ability to spin up new apps, failed apps, Threads, how sticky are network effects, Tencent's QQ

(59:04) Monetization formula, advertising history, and primer on the digital ad ecosystem

(1:19:25) Apple Privacy Changes, ATT, IDFA, Return on Ad Spend, auction dynamics

(1:38:48) Can Meta recover from their data loss? Inverting the question with the reverse DCF to see implied growth.

(1:43:47) WhatsApp, IRR Math

(1:47:23) Metaverse Spend, Financial Returns, Strategy

(1:53:36) Year of Efficiency

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Purchase Speedwell's full ~47,000 word Meta report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/01/17/meta-platforms-deep-dive/

Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/

More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a postion in Meta. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Meta. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/