The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

In a special episode of our week-in-review podcast, the team shares a live presentation we gave at NAIOP Silicon Valley’s Capital Markets event. We have a data-driven review of what’s happening to commercial real estate in the region and across the U.S. We dive into data on the recent bank turmoil, delinquencies and distress across the country, loan maturities, lease renewals, occupancy, and more. Tune in now.

If you are looking for the presentation that goes along with this podcast, send an email to [email protected].

Episode Notes:

- Economic update (0:23)

- Silicon Valley: poised for rebirth? (4:07)

- Silicon Valley challenges (8:43)

- Bank data and distress (13:23)

- First Republic’s collapse by the numbers (16:15)

- Regional bank market share (19:40)

- Delinquencies across the country (26:31)

- Risk ratings (30:57)

- Upcoming distress (33:44)

- Loan maturities (34:59)

- Sublease availability (39:43)

- Occupancy and the knock-on effect (43:14)

- Lease terms, renewals, and rent (47:24)

- CRE stories to watch in Silicon Valley (50:00)

- Shoutouts (54:02)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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With slowing regional bank turmoil, all eyes shifted to the debt ceiling deal debate. In this week’s episode, we examine the latest economic news. Mike Flood of the Mortgage Bankers Association shares his perspective on the debt ceiling and bank regulation. In CRE, we saw several office loans transfer to special servicing, sublease stories, and comps. We also share retail green shoots and crabgrass, a hotel comeback story, and discuss our bank CRE concentration analysis. And in an ode to Sam Zell, we reference his mentality of knowing when to “hold ‘em” and when to “fold ‘em.” Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Economic update(0:23)

• Debt ceiling thoughts: Mike Flood, MBA (6:45)

• Bank executive testimonials (9:35)

• Regulatory changes ahead (11:01)

• Bank CRE concentrations (15:14)

• Office special servicing transfers (18:19)

• Sublease stories (24:10)

• Office comps (27:58)

• Retail crabgrass (30:02)

• Retail green shoots (33:35)

• Hotel comeback story(36:12)

• Shoutouts (38:51)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

With concerns over the debt ceiling, credit tightening, and bank deposit runs, problems in commercial real estate may be the least of investors’ worries. In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine regional bank concerns and some promising fresh inflation data. In CRE, we talk good news for suburban retail, retail extensions, and more sublease stories. We also break down quoted versus effective rent. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Economic news (0:23)

• Earnings (9:43)

• Good news for suburban retail? (13:35)

• Retail extensions (18:00)

• Trading Alerts (21:23)

• Negative office news: subleases (26:01)

• Quoted vs. effective rent (32:51)

• Office green shoot and crabgrass story (38:49)

• Multifamily story (41:06)

• Shoutouts (43:55)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc

Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

The yield on the 3-month treasury hit more than a 22-year high today, so, clearly, investors are jittery. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we explain what’s going on with the debt ceiling discussions, continued bank worries following the news of First Republic, and the economic uncertainty. In CRE, we cover the CMBS delinquency rate which held steady but revealed more concern for office, dive into comps and benchmarks for office, and review our Trading Alerts. Stick around to hear what ‘Siri’ says. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Jittery market: debt ceiling, bank worries, economic uncertainty (0:23)

• First Republic’s problems (9:23)

• CMBS delinquency report (14:10)

• Vornado pausing dividend (15:29)

• Office stories (17:16)

• CRE comps and benchmarks (20:06)

• Trading alerts: sublease space, move outs (25:41)

• Houston stories (32:30)

• Multifamily news (35:31)

• Shoutouts (41:39)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

In a special episode of our week-in-review, the team shares a live presentation we put on for ICSC’s Continuing Education Michigan event, diving into the state of the retail market and the impact of macroeconomic events on commercial real estate. Here, we are joined by Emily D’Agostini Kunath of D’Agostini Companies to examine the “catchy” retail apocalypse theme, deciding if it still holds true in today’s market. We break down what current liquidity, lending, and capital issues mean for retail and decide where the opportunities lie.

If you are looking for the presentation that goes along with this podcast, send an email to [email protected].

Episode Notes:

• Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity (1:40)

• Retail stats (7:50)

• Where was retail earlier this year? (13:05)

• Strength of brick-and-mortar(16:30)

• Store closings and bankruptcies(18:50)

• Retail weaknesses: malls (20:22)

• Street-level retail and crime (22:24)

• Dispelling the retail myths (32:15)

• Post-bank collapse: where is retail now? (34:18)

• Headlines we’re watching: debt ceiling (36:30)

• Detroit CRE sentiment (37:55)

• Where are opportunities? (40:45)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

This week, we have the Managing Editor of Commercial Real Estate Direct, Orest Mandzy, joining to give us additional perspective within CRE. In this episode, we start with a market update, taking note of the data showing a softening economy. Then we take a look at housing starts and homebuilder sentiment, which remains negative.

In CRE, the team reviews our latest Quarterly Data Review, examining the data and trends that shaped the market in Q1. We also take a deep dive into office news and discuss bank earnings and their impact. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

Market Update 00:50

Housing Starts 5:52

Office News 15:14

Bank Earnings 26:36

Retail Updates 30:00

Quarterly Data Review Magazine 31:37

Shoutouts: 33:37

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, the team dives into the latest economic news and jobs data. Next up, we give an update on banks and give a sneak peek of Trepp’s Q1 Bank Earnings analysis. Then we sing the office blues but do find positive office news, with big office loans to keep on your radar, and then debate if in-office is coming back …again. Stick around to hear multifamily news and a preview of Trepp’s AI podcast. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

Economic and job data (0:25)

Update on Banks (7:07)

Two CMBS Deals Priced (10:06)

Return to office (13:57)

Sublease and office moves (16:30)

Big office loans to watch (22:35)

Retail News (26:28)

Multifamily Housing (36:05)

Shoutouts (40:32)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

With the urgency of the bank concerns calmed for now, the spotlight this week turned to jobs and economic data. In this episode,  we examine the signs of weakening across the markets ahead of a big jobs week.

We also review indications of potential consumer health pressure and/or receding inflation from early retail earnings. In CRE, we discuss tightening lending conditions, CMBS issuance dropping to levels not seen since 2012, delinquencies across the US, and big headlines to watch. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Markets weakening: economics and job data (0:23)

• Fed speak (6:00)

• Signs from retail earnings (9:45)

• Blackrock selling failed bank securities (12:43)

• Tightening of lending conditions (17:25)

• Dallas Fed survey

• CMBS issuance or “non issuance?”(23:26)

• Delinquency moves across the US (26:40)

• Property sector news (29:57)

• Headlines of CRE stories to watch (34:07)

• Shoutouts (40:27)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

This week, the White House called for stricter rules for mid-sized banks as lawmakers sifted through what happened with the recent bank failures and what needs to be done in response. In this episode, we dive into some more details of the SVB bank run, then we debate what makes an asset qualify as "toxic." The team discusses the CMBS Delinquency Rate dip in March, while the office rate continues to climb. Lastly, we discuss the retail, multifamily, and hotel sectors. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

We're Not Out of the Woods Yet (0:20)

What Makes a Toxic Asset? (9:40)

Bank Money Flows (14:40)

CMBS Delinquency (23:21)

CMBS Spreads and Concerns about CRE (27:10)

Crabgrass in Office (31:00)

Green Shoot Trading Alerts (35:09)

Retail, Multifamily, and Hotels (37:00)

Shoutouts (42:01)

In a special guest episode, Warren de Haan, managing director, co-founder, and co-CEO of ACORE Capital joins the team to provide market perspective from a private CRE lender. Here, we examine the impending credit crisis by talking through the current lending environment. Warren shares a boots-on-the-ground view of private lending, market constraints, and assets that are facing pressure or have opportunities.

Episode Notes:

- Intro (0:20)

- Setting the stage: take on current environment (1:07)

- Deposit insurance issues (7:34)

- CRE and market constraints (8:50)

- Dealing with troubled assets (12:30)

- Playing lending offense and defense (17:20)

- Potential for regulation? (19:20)

- Is there a potential for optimism in 2023? (22:12)

- Third rail of CRE: office sector (24:24)

- Assets that will face pressure (29:18)

- Where are the opportunities? (30:57)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC