The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are watching the Japanese bond market, big bank earnings, the legal debt ceiling, retail sales, and housing news. In commercial real estate finance, we talk about retailer bankruptcies, the latest sales transaction data, office loans to watch, and sublease, sales, and vacancy stories across the country. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Economic update: Fedspeak (0:23)

• Japan/debt ceiling (9:02)

• Mixed bag for bank earnings (12:08)

• Tech layoffs (18:01)

• Party City bankruptcy (19:17)

• Digging through the data: CRE transactions decline (22:37)

• Office loans to watch (26:11)

• Bad news for Seattle (29:06)

• Brokers start your engines (34:16)

• Denver trading alert (35:36)

• Statefarm portfolio (37:50)

• Sublease space in Columbus (39:38)

• Shoutouts (41:58)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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For the last few days, the podcast team was at CREFC Miami, where the sentiment surrounded “cautious optimism” (or was it “cautious pessimism?”) and the 'game of chicken' that is taking place for buyers/sellers and borrowers/lenders. In this week's episode, Orest Mandzy of CRE Direct joins the team to share our takeaways from the CRE finance industry conference, dive into what’s to come for multifamily and affordability, examine where CMBS issuance and loan payoffs stand, and share crabgrass and green shoots for retail and office. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

Economic update (0:23)

Good news on inflation (3:07)

Housing (6:15)

CREFC Confidential: Industry conference Sentiment (10:16)

Multifamily and affordability panel (20:25)

Year-End Magazine: CMBS issuance (25:10)

December 2022 loan payoffs (29:32)

Retail crabgrass (31:38)

Retail positives (33:20)

Sublease special (39:02)

Office crabgrass (41:09)

Greenies in office (44:04)

Shoutouts (48:53)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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Recent reports show that more than two-thirds of economists at 23 large financial institutions are predicting a U.S. recession.  In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the negativity that has made its way to 2023, reviewing Fed minutes, more Tech firm issues, and our own CMBS delinquency rate rising in December 2022.

It’s not all bad news. Among news about firms downsizing, store closures, and layoffs, we find some positive stories for the retail and office sectors. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

Economic Update: Fed minutes, recession, Tech Wreck (0:23)

Downsizing at tech firms (4:55)

Twitter cost cutting (8:28)

Vote of confidence: UC BREIT (11:42)

CMBS delinquency report (15:01)

Office news (20:50)

Green shoots in office (23:08)

Crabgrass for office (28:00)

Bed Bath & Beyond running out of cash (31:20)

Layoffs & closures (34:50)

Retail green shoots (37:45)

Shoutouts (46:15)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In the final episode of 2022, the team pauses to review the year, reflecting on pleasant and unpleasant surprises and the CRE stories that topped the headlines. In this week's episode, we share a look back at 2022 and also look ahead to 2023, sharing some of our commercial real estate and economic market predictions for next year based on what we've learned from the stories. Stick around to learn what a TWPT is. Wishing a happy new year to all our listeners! Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

Economic overview (0:23)

Look back at 2022: pleasant surprises (8:43)

Unpleasant surprises (14:22)

Top content of 2022 (20:43)

Positive trading alerts: retail (24:03)

Negative trading alerts: tenants vacating, subleases, tech news(27:41)

2023 predictions (36:05)

Shoutouts (46:18)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

In this week's episode, we discuss weak holiday sales, retail earnings, and the soft housing market. In CRE, there is a lot to cover in the office and retail sectors, with positive, negative, and neutral stories that paint a picture of what is to come in 2023. The team also shares their holiday wish lists. Happy holidays to all our listeners!

Episode Notes:

• Economic data: consumer sentiment, recession, earnings (0:23)

• Housing market headwinds(6:25)

• Commercial mortgage universe increases(14:41)

• Office losses in major markets (16:45)

• Positive office stories (18:50)

• Why the recent increase in cap rate reporting? (22:10)

• Office crabgrass (25:27)

• Retail news(33:31)

• Mall credit stories (37:18)

• Programming and shoutouts (39:23)

• Holiday Wishlist (41:46)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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This week, the big investor reaction was to the Fed’s so-called “dot plot” that sees a higher Fed Funds target range. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into the welcomed CPI print, the Fed decision, retail sales, housing, and what it all means for CRE.

We also have a lot to discuss in the office market, with a focus on loan refinancings, tenant moves, space consolidations, and more. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Economic data: CPI, Fed decision(0:23)

• Labor, jobs, housing (4:33)

• Good week for borrowers(6:55)

• Joann Fabrics hold on dividend payments(10:12)

• Office conversion story (12:54)

• Positive office news (14:35)

• Office mixed greens(22:10)

• Office crabgrass (25:40)

• Retail green shoots (29:02)

• Amazon movie theaters (30:56)

• Shoutouts (31:27)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode, we analyze what appears to be a commercial real estate market turning negative. Rob Jordan, Head of CMBS, joins the team as we discuss market sentiment, borrower concerns, and predictions for the economy and Q4 bank earnings.

In property-type news, we saw a lot of negative news for the office market – opening the door to the question: are offices the new malls? We also see cracks in the industrial market, but the positive signs in recent hotel stories help reel in the negativity. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Economic update (0:23)

• Sentiment for 2023 (7:41)

• Multifamily borrower concerns (11:08)

• Barry Sternlicht NYU conference comments (13:42)

• Q4 bank earnings predictions (19:07)

• Retail news to know(20:07)

• Green shoots (24:26)

• Office conversions (26:09)

• Hotel resilience (33:20)

• Industrial cracks (36:03)

• Shoutouts (38:37)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

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In this week’s episode, we dive into some major stories touching the CRE and CMBS markets including office crabgrass, interesting loan modifications, hotel loan extensions, retail challenges, and industrial news. In a new segment, we introduce the Trepp unicorn, diving into a story about rare excess recovery. We also share our latest delinquency data and life insurance commercial mortgage returns. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Market update: Fed, jobs, supply chain, housing (0:23)

• Delinquency report (9:17)

• Life insurance commercial returns (15:47)

• Office crabgrass (18:16)

• Office green shoots (19:54)

• Airbnb’s listing service (24:20)

• Hotel stories (27:26)

• Retail CRE news (31:10)

• Industrial acquisition (36:05)

• Trepp unicorn: rare excess recovery (38:14)

• Shoutouts (41:04)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

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This week, earnings season wound down with more retailers showing better-than-expected results and a shortened trading week due to the holiday meaning more focus on what the Fed is signaling for December. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into several big stories across the major property types: borrowers extending, missing balloon payments, and property valuations declining. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Economic data (0:23)

• Consumer resilience? (6:53)

• Retailer earnings and store closures (8:54)

• Layoffs (13:09)

• NYC ground lease stories (14:56)

• Kroger Albertson’s exposure (20:17)

• Nordstrom vacating Minneapolis space (22:12)

• Retail: missed balloon dates, values decline, loan extensions (23:30)

• Multifamily (32:26)

• Hotel positive news (38:15)

• Student housing story(43:09)

• Office news to watch(46:01)

• Shoutouts (47:11)

This week, it was easier to find green shoots than Taylor Swift tickets, but CRE still can’t “shake off” higher rates. In this week’s episode, Andrew Jacobs, Head of Structured Finance, joins the team as we discuss retail earnings, the CRE CLO market, housing data, loan payoffs, and the impact on leveraged loans in a higher-rate environment. We also dive into a few major office, retail, and hotel stories to note this week. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:

• Economic data (0:26)

• Corporate CLO market in a higher rate world (7:45)

• Housing market update (10:46)

• Retail earnings (12:33)

• Ballooning inventory (17:10)

• Loan payoffs (18:43)

• CRE CLOs (20:46)

• Digging through the data: lease expirations (26:27)

• Office vacancies (27:27)

• US banks considering office loan sales (31:20)

• Office green shoots (33:13)

• Manhattan office Trading Alert (34:42)

• Retail stories (36:47)

• Hotel news to watch (38:34)

• Shoutouts (42:25)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc

Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC