The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we sit down with Larry Connor, Founder and Managing Partner of The Connor Group, one of the largest privately held multifamily investment firms in the U.S. Larry shares how he went from a failed business venture to building a multi-billion-dollar multifamily platform grounded in operational discipline. He explains why operations, not renovations, drive the greatest value creation, how his team uses real-time data and AI to measure resident satisfaction, and why the 2020- 2022 liquidity era created a market that couldn’t last. Beyond real estate, Larry reflects on serving as pilot on Axiom Mission 1 to the International Space Station and participating in other demanding expeditions, outlining the philosophy of disciplined risk, preparation, and purpose that guides both his missions and his investment strategy. He closes with advice for builders and operators alike: aim high and don’t self-limit. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• Background & Start in Real Estate (1:10)
• Parallels Between AI & Introduction of Computers (4:09) 
• Tenant Satisfaction & Property Value (4:39)
• Real Estate Market Predictions (12:43)
• The Connor Group Investment Strategy (17:14)
• Adventures and Philanthropy (24:12) 

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the growing disconnect between headline strength and underlying softness in the economy. Retail sales came in flat, jobs surprised to the upside, and sweeping BLS revisions quietly erased nearly 900,000 jobs from 2025 totals, leaving markets to reconcile conflicting signals. In commercial real estate, a wave of store closures from legacy brands like Eddie Bauer, Pizza Hut, Red Lobster, and Saks made headlines, but we explain why this looks more like retail rationalization than another apocalypse. In multifamily, we analyze Camden’s decision to exit California, the rent-setting software antitrust settlement, Los Angeles’ new adaptive reuse ordinance, and recent transactions in Quincy, Wilmington, and Charlotte. On the lodging side, we cover a $372 million Nashville hotel construction loan, Gencom’s acquisition of the Ritz-Carlton Central Park, and the Waldorf Astoria returning to the market after a $4 billion-plus renovation. We close with a preview of Trepp’s upcoming CMBS maturity playbook. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Retail Sales, Jobs Report & BLS Revisions (1:52)
• Retail Store Closures (8:22)
• Multifamily Deep Dive: Camden's California Exit, Rent Control, Antitrust Settlement & Adaptive Reuse (19:38)
• Multifamily Transactions: Quincy, MA; Wilmington, DE; Charlotte, NC (35:44)
• Lodging: Nashville Construction Loan, Ritz-Carlton Acquisition & Waldorf Astoria Sale (38:37)
• Programming Notes (46:08)
• Shoutouts (53:31)

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Right after we recorded last week, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine what that move could signal for the future path of interest rates and how markets are reacting. A brief government shutdown also delayed key economic data releases, leaving investors with limited visibility into growth and labor conditions. We also sit down with Ryan Sievers, Tax Partner at EisnerAmper, to unpack the One Big Beautiful Bill and its key implications for CRE, including bonus depreciation, Qualified Opportunity Zones, and what didn't make the cut.

On the banking side, the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows lending standards remain tight for office and construction—a trend we tie into findings from Trepp’s own lending survey—along with a look at Santander’s $12B acquisition of Webster Financial. Turning to commercial real estate, we unpack the January jump in the Trepp CMBS office delinquency rate, largely driven by two sizable loans, and close with key headlines from the week, including Brookfield’s $1.2B acquisition of Peakstone Realty Trust and Oracle’s plan to raise $45-$50B this year to expand its data center footprint. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Fed Chair Nomination & Government Shutdown
• One Big Beautiful Bill Deep Dive with Ryan Sievers, Tax Partner at EisnerAmper (15:12)
• January SLOOS & Trepp-i Data (23:07)
• Santander to Acquire Webster Financial (30:18)
• First Bank Failure of 2026: Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust (33:10)
• Miami Office Tower Trying to Evict Banco Master (36:11)
• Trepp January CMBS Delinquency Report (37:58)
• Brookfield Acquisition of Peakstone Realty Trust (42:13)
• Data Centers: Oracle to Raise $45B+ (45:56)
• Programming Notes (47:55)
• Shoutouts (49:45)

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As much of the U.S. stays frozen, the Fed also kept rates on ice this week. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the decision and what a shifting policy landscape could mean as Chair Powell’s term winds down. In multifamily, we share insights from the National Multifamily Housing Council conference, including a closer look at disciplined JV equity underwriting and the bridge-to-bridge lending trend fueling CRE CLO issuance. We also apply the Gordon Growth Model to San Francisco’s 3,165-unit Park Merced complex to unpack valuation dynamics and cash flow trends. Plus, we cover the co-working market’s resurgence, the halt of the $16 billion Hudson Tunnel project, Amazon’s closure of Fresh and Go stores, Fat Brands’ Chapter 11 filing, and recent multifamily transactions, including NBA star Giannis expanding his CRE portfolio with a Chicago apartment purchase. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update (1:40)

• Fed Holds Rates Steady (4:11)

• Multifamily Insights & Cap Rates (9:00)

• Bridge to Bridge Lending & CRE CLO Issuance (19:34)

• Park Merced Case Study: Gordon Growth Model Valuation Analysis (21:25)

• $16 Billion Hudson Tunnel Project Halted (28:17)

• Co-Working Market Roars Back to Life (31:17)

• Retail Closures: Amazon Fresh/Go & Fat Brands Bankruptcy (36:03)

• Multifamily Transactions: Giannis' Chicago Buy & Arizona Deal (39:55)

• Programming Notes (44:10)

• Shoutouts (47:12)

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Richard (Rick) Schaupp, equity owner, Managing Director, and Head of Private Wealth Distribution at Clarion Partners. Rick shares his expert perspective on today’s commercial real estate (CRE) landscape and how Clarion is positioning itself across cycles. Rick provides insights into Clarion’s strategic focus on industrial and alternative assets, how the firm’s positioning helped it navigate the COVID-19 pandemic, and their approach to private credit and portfolio construction. We explore the evolving nature of industrial real estate, including the impact of Amazon's leasing practices and the potential challenges of long-term tenant commitments. We highlight data centers as an attractive asset class, as well as potential opportunities in senior housing and assisted living. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• Background & Start in the Industry (1:14)

• Industrial & Alternative Assets Focus (3:26)

• Private Credit & Portfolio Construction (7:06)

• Investment Strategy Four Themes (11:29)

• COVID-19, Tariffs, and Amazon Impact on Industrial (17:46)

• Data Center Demand (23:49)

• Senior Housing & Assisted Living (28:04)

• Opportunistic Approach & Outlook (32:16)

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down a busy week of economic data as markets look ahead to the Fed’s next meeting and reset expectations for 2026 interest rates. We also cover policy headlines out of Davos that are adding uncertainty around taxes, credit, and regulation. In commercial real estate, we spotlight the growing divide between slowing construction activity and strong data center investment driven by AI demand. We explain why data centers continue to outperform, unpack the nuances behind multifamily distress, and review recent deals that reveal both optimism and trouble across the market. We close with Amazon’s plan for its largest physical retail store yet — a 230,000‑square‑foot big‑box location in the Chicago suburbs. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update (0:29)
• Market Uncertainties (4:03)
• CRE Construction: Data Centers & More (15:29)
• Transition Between CRE & Infrastructure (24:26)
• Supply Wave on the Multifamily Market (32:37)
• Amazon's Giant Hybrid Retail Store (43:41)
• Programming Notes (49:19) Shoutouts (51:34)

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, markets are digesting a mix of macro headlines and early signals from commercial real estate (CRE) as 2026 gets underway. We kick things off with insights from the CRE Finance Council Conference in Miami, where discussions centered on improving liquidity, tighter spreads, and the uptick in CMBS issuance. From there, we turn to macroeconomic updates, including the DOJ subpoenaing the Fed, potential caps on credit card interest rates, and wholesale inflation trends. In property type stories, we cover GameStop closing stores nationwide and Saks filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Plus, we break down two loans recently sent to special servicing: a large single-tenant triple net lease (NNN) office portfolio and a Los Angeles mall SASB loan. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• CREFC Miami Recap (2:47)
• Data Centers & AI (9:39)
• DOJ/Fed, Credit Card Cap, Inflation (18:38)
• NNN Office Portfolio Loan Sent to Special Servicing (30:52)
• GameStop & Saks (39:10)
• Los Angeles Mall SASB Loan Sent to Special Servicing (43:57)
• Programming Notes (45:46)
• Shoutouts (49:54)

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we kick off 2026’s first full trading week with a look at the headlines shaping CRE, housing, and the broader economy. We discuss President Trump’s proposal to limit institutional purchases of single-family homes, the year-end drop in mortgage demand, Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments on potential Fed rate cuts, and Mamdani’s bankruptcy sale policy in NYC. We then dive into advanced CRE fundamentals, exploring what stress looks like before a default and identifying early warning signs in loan-level data, while expressing optimism for a year of deal-making driven by improving rates and market conditions. Finally, we break down the first major transactions of 2026, including AT&T’s headquarters move to suburban Dallas, Google’s long-awaited Austin office opening, and the office-to-residential conversion at 5 Times Square. Tune in now

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Housing Market & Oil Impact (1:49)
• JOLTS, Jobless Claims & Uncertainty in CRE: Will 2026 Be the Year of Transactions? (14:48)
• What Does Stress Look Like Before a Default and How to Spot Early Warning Signs? (19:25)
• AT&T Moving HQ to Dallas Suburb (28:41)
• SL Green Selling Minority Interest in 100 Park Avenue (35:09)
• Chicago Investor Buying San Francisco Office Tower in Half-Off Sale (37:55)
• Google Finally Moving into Austin Office Tower (40:11)
• 5 Times Square Office-to-Resi Conversion (43:44)
• NYC Mamdani Bankruptcy Building Sale (45:11)
• Programming Notes (50:00)
• Shoutouts (52:21)

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we’re joined by Carmen Spinoso, Chairman and CEO of Spinoso Real Estate Group, one of the country's largest privately held enclosed mall operators. With more than 35 years of industry experience, Carmen shares how his firm approaches value creation across its portfolio, including high-profile projects like the management of Grand Central Terminal and Ovation Hollywood. We dive into the current state of the retail sector, why brick-and-mortar still captures 75-80% of all sales, and how Gen Z is driving traffic back to malls. Carmen walks us through case studies on repositioning vacant anchors and attracting experiential tenants, the importance of community-focused marketing and events, and why the 2026 outlook for enclosed malls is looking strong. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Carmen's Journey: From Leasing Rep to CEO (2:16)
• Portfolio Update: Grand Central Terminal & Ovation Hollywood (13:00)
• Why Malls Are Still a Valuable Investment Class (17:00)
• Turning Around Underperforming Malls (26:12)
• Marketing, Events & Community Building (29:31)
• 2026 Outlook & Final Thoughts (36:15)

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In our final 2025 episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we look ahead to what 2026 may bring for commercial real estate (CRE), sharing initial calls for the year while reflecting on how economic conditions, interest rates, and tariffs shaped the past twelve months. We dive into CMBS-specific dynamics, including issuance, delinquencies, and maturities that set the stage for the new year. Our predictions tackle the big questions: Will CMBS hit the $100B issuance three-peat? Where is bank lending headed? And what’s next for the looming CMBS maturity wall? We review rising delinquency trends and forecast where the numbers might land, and also provide our insights on property pricing as the new year begins. We close with our New Year’s resolutions for the market. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• CRE Calls for 2026 (1:16)

• Market Inflection Point (6:18)

• Economy, Interest Rates & Tariff Impacts (8:25)

• Walmart & Amazon Discussion (14:17)

• 2026 CMBS Issuance & Lending Volumes Predictions (18:54)

• December 2025 CMBS Delinquency Report & 2026 Predictions (22:35)

• Rolling CMBS Maturity Wall (26:33)

• Property Prices (30:20)

• New Year’s Resolutions for CRE (36:24)

• Programming Notes & Shoutouts (41:44)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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