The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the U.S. government still being shut down and what it means for economic data releases being paused the longer it drags on. We unpack the September Fed meeting minutes, which revealed a split among policymakers following last month’s 25-basis-point rate cut. We dive into Q3 CMBS issuance trends and explore how the current pace could make 2025 the most active year for issuance since 2007, when $230.5 billion was issued. In banking news, we spotlight Fifth Third’s acquisition of Comerica, a deal that would create the ninth-largest U.S. bank and potentially reshape the regional lending landscape. In the commercial property segment, we highlight RXR’s $1.45 billion Midtown recapitalization, a major office-to-residential conversion near Penn Station, Crescent Real Estate’s purchase of a Dallas office building, and more. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Government Still Shutdown (1:37)

• Implications for CRE (10:28)

• FOMC Meeting Minutes & Economic Data (12:56)

• Q3 CMBS Issuance & Projections (16:49)

• Fifth Third to buy Comerica (24:01)

• RXR $1.4B Midtown Recapitalization (31:36)

• Office-to-Resi Conversion Near Penn Station (36:50)

• Crescent Real Estate Buys Dallas' 2000 McKinney Office (39:26)

• Programming Notes (41:53)

• Shoutouts (43:21)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we analyze what recent developments mean for commercial real estate (CRE), starting with the U.S. government shutdown. We explore its potential economic impact, how long it could last, and what historical shutdowns suggest for CRE. We continue the ongoing conversation about AI, including Accenture layoffs, and Citi’s employee training. Next, we break down our latest CMBS Delinquency Report, which saw the September 2025 overall rate decreasing for the first time since February, and preview Trepp’s Anonymized Loan Level Repository (T-ALLR) Q2 2025 report, sharing signs from bank data. We also cover a trading alert on an outlet loan transferred to special servicing, IKEA’s expansion into Manhattan, continued happenings at Westfield San Francisco Centre, BlackRock’s lease expansion at its Hudson Yards headquarters, and more. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: U.S. Government Shutdown (1:33)

• AI Discussion: Accenture Layoffs, Citi Training (11:27)

• Trepp September CMBS Delinquency Report (22:14)

• T-ALLR Q2 2025 Report Preview (25:28)

• Outlet Loan Heads to Special Servicing (29:42)

• Retail: IKEA’s expansion in Manhattan (34:36)

• Westfield San Francisco Center (37:05)

• Labubu Times Square Store (39:49)

• BlackRock Hudson Yards HQ Expansion (43:53)

• Programming Notes (45:06)

• Shoutouts (46:56)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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Is office a good investment alternative? In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break it down, spotlighting growing demand for high-end CBD space even amid ongoing distress. We dive into Compass’ $1.6 billion acquisition of Anywhere and its potential impact on the broader residential brokerage landscape, along with August’s new home sales data. Responding to a listener question, we explain the concept of “recapture,” exploring how depreciation factors into decisions to hand back the keys. Plus, we share fresh September data-filled office trading alerts, opportunities in student housing, and the acquisition of Toll Brothers’ apartment platform. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Office Opportunities (0:28)
• Compass Acquisition of Anywhere (8:40)
• New Home Sales Surged 20.5% (15:57)
• Listener Question: Recapture Deep Dive & One Big Beautiful Bill (21:13)
• Latest Office Trading Alerts (28:16)
• Augusta, GA Mall Loan Sent to Special Servicing (36:36)
• Kennedy Wilson Acquiring Toll Brothers Apartment Platform (38:19)
• Programming Notes: Upcoming Trepp Webinars (46:02)
• Shoutouts (49:44)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this special episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we’re joined by John Barkidjija, Executive Vice President and Head of Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Specialty Finance at Byline Bank. Better known to our listeners as Dr. Debt Yield, John shares why the debt yield metric remains a cornerstone in CRE and reflects on the moment it became his preferred tool for analyzing real estate. He offers valuable lessons from navigating market downturns from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and explains how his legal background fuels a creative approach to problem-solving. The discussion covers key macroeconomic forces driving market uncertainty, from interest rate volatility and tariff impacts to the growing influence of AI. We also explore delinquency resolutions, recent shifts in bank regulatory reporting, and John’s outlook on potential interest rate cuts. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• Background & Start in CRE (1:50)

• Importance of the Debt Yield Metric (6:50)

• Macro Factors Impacting CRE Uncertainty (11:10)

• The Role of AI & Office Implications (14:17)

• Lessons from Down Cycles (18:10)

• Good & Bad Resolutions in Delinquencies (24:47)

• Bank Regulation Reporting Change (35:37)

• Fed Interest Rate Decision Prediction (38:33)

• Shoutouts (41:54)

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Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we analyze the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and the impact on the commercial real estate (CRE) capital markets. We revisit the movement of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and credit spreads leading up to the decision. We also unpack the stronger-than-expected retail sales data for August, debate whether economists are overestimating the impact of tariffs on spending, and touch on the current economic stability amid market risks. Turning to CRE stories of the week, we talk about Rithm Capital’s plans to acquire Paramount Group for $1.6 billion, Brookfield’s completed turn around of 660 Fifth Avenue, as well as SL Green and PGIM's $1.4 billion refinancing deal for 11 Madison Avenue. The episode ends with two recent trading alerts and key takeaways from Trepp’s August CMBS Special Servicing Report. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Fed Cut Rates (0:28)
• What is Causing Elevated SOFR Rates? (9:46)
• CRE Loan Spreads Performance for the Week Ending Sept. 12 (13:40)
• Strong Retail Sales Growth & Economic Stability (15:40)
• Rithm Capital Plans to Acquire Paramount Group (27:45)
• Brookfield Turned 660 Fifth Avenue Around with a $1.7 Billion Investment (32:14)
• SL Green and PGIM's $1.4 Billion Refi for 11 Madison Avenue (35:52)
• Trading Alert: Huge Manhattan Office Loan Sent to Special Servicing (38:59)
• Trading Alert: Florida Mall Value Slashed Below Loan Balance (42:01)
• Programming Notes (43:34)
• Shoutouts (45:38)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we unpack major labor market revisions, revealing that job growth was overstated by 911,000 jobs over the past year. We analyze recent data that strengthens the case for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. We also dive into Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s op-ed, which critiques the Federal Reserve’s post-2008 monetary policy shift. In commercial real estate, we analyze a NAIOP report pointing to cooling demand in the industrial sector and share Trepp’s data on industrial delinquency. We discuss the latest return-to-office developments, with Paramount joining the list of companies enforcing mandates. Turning to office-to-resi conversion trends, we spotlight Washington, D.C., where new tax incentives aim to accelerate transformation. We close the episodes with two notable retail credit stories. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: 911,000 Fewer Jobs (1:42)

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Op Ed (11:29)

• Industrial Space Demand Falls (24:02)

• Starwood $930M CMBS Loan (32:37)

• Return to Office Mandates (34:59)

• Washington D.C. Tax Abatements for Office-to-Resi Projects (40:45)

• Retail Credit Stories (43:41)

• Programming Notes (46:02)

• Shoutouts (46:55)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this special episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we’re joined again by Shlomo Chopp, Managing Partner of Case Equity Partners, to discuss commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) loan workouts and distressed property situations. Shlomo offers a deep dive into his firm’s strategic approach to navigating complex loan restructurings and asset management. He breaks down the dynamics between small and large borrowers, outlines why CMBS loans often present more flexible workout options than traditional bank financing, and stresses the value of early engagement and negotiation. We also explore current market trends in distressed deals and the challenges in today’s appraisal process. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• Background & Start in Real Estate (2:01)

• CMBS Loan Workouts (10:41)

• Loan Negotiation Strategies for Borrowers (15:47)

• Strategic Solutions for Asset Management (22:39)

• Distressed Deals & Market Trends (30:32)

• Challenges in the Current Appraisal Process (37:28)

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Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we assess the current state of the market, explore the commercial real estate (CRE) yield curve, and check in on residential mortgage rate trends. We unpack recent changes to bank reporting rules that could make it easier for banks to hide troubled loans and conceal signs of distress in their lending portfolios. Turning to property stories of the week, we discuss the 1211 Avenue of the Americas loan, which may be returning to performing status despite contributing to the spike in August's CMBS delinquency rate. We also talk about office bright spots, with Manhattan’s strong office leasing recovery and the surge in AI-driven demand in San Francisco, and review three multifamily sales transactions. To close, we share insights from the LifeComps Report Q2 2025 and examine trends in life insurance commercial mortgage returns. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update & Rate Cuts (0:27)
• Mortgage Rates Impact (8:03)
• Office Loan Returning to Performing (12:44)
• Manhattan Office Leasing Recovery (15:41)
• AI-driven Demand in San Francisco (18:57)
• Bank Report Transparency (24:57)
• Multifamily Sales Transactions (32:11)
• Life Insurance Commercial Mortgage Returns (36:32)
• Programming Notes (41:38)
• Shoutouts (42:55)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss retail earnings revealing a bifurcated consumer with value players like Five Below and Walmart raising guidance while restaurants struggle, and examine resilient GDP growth despite declining consumer confidence. We dive into our latest CMBS delinquency data, showing office hitting another all-time high of 11.66% and multifamily reaching a 9-year peak. We explore Starwood's $500 million industrial deal and discuss office sector momentum, including Prologis' Manhattan expansion and a unique office-to-hotel conversion proposal. We also examine multifamily transactions like Invesco's $390 million Houston portfolio financing, and apartment sales across Florida, California, and Kansas. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Retail Earnings Analysis (1:26)
• Consumer Confidence Index vs. Negative Headlines (4:51)
• Trepp CMBS Delinquency Report (12:49)
• Industrial Sector: Starwood's $500M Deal (22:05)
• Office Sector Stories & Sales Transactions (26:57)
• Multifamily Financing & Sales Transactions (35:45)
• Programming Notes (41:59)

• Shoutouts (45:10)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected]

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into growing economic concerns, from stagflation risks and the ongoing market uncertainty related to tariffs and Federal Reserve policy. We discuss the quality of the monthly jobs data to forecast future demand, and break down the latest retail sales data and performance, highlighting mixed earnings reports - such as Home Depot’s slight revenue dip amid elevated interest rates. Shifting to the office sector, we spotlight the upcoming October opening of J.P. Morgan’s new $3 billion headquarters and discuss how NYC office visits have, for the first time, surpassed pre-pandemic levels. We also explore the complexities of converting office buildings to residential use in NYC, share updates on office origination data across the country, and report on three notable special servicing transfers. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Stagflation Risks (0:28)
• Market Uncertainties & Data Reliability (8:58)
• Retail Sales & Performance Overview (15:08)
• J.P. Morgan Headquarters Completion (20:16)
• Office-to Resi Conversion Challenges (24:31)
• Office Originations (29:06)
• Two Special Servicing Transfers (32:10)
• New Hampshire Mall Loan Transferred to Special Servicing (41:15)
• Programming Notes (42:56)
• Shoutouts (44:56)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp