Well the numbers are in and January is already the first of twelve chapters already done for 2023. January was a very slow month not only just in volume of sales but also in terms of overall inventory. With only just over 1,000 sales this month, sales volume numbers were dismal at best and represented a 55% drop from the same time last year. Important to recognize though that this time last year was nearly the peak of the market before we saw the introduction of interest rate hikes. Even so, last months sales were 43% below the 10 year average. 

With 173% more listings added to the marketplace in January, you would think there would be climbing inventory but only just as there were also many properties that were pulled from the market keeping total inventory below 7,500 units. For reference the region had more than 20,000 listings in the GFC where consumer sentiment echoed the same as it does now and such low inventory is providing a price floor for many Sellers. And with the Sales to Active ratio officially cruising in a balanced market, we are likely seeing a time where selling conditions favour Buyers.

We also explore how HPI prices are beginning flatten out with prices only dropping 0.3% last month. With many indicators pointing to price stabilization and private banks cutting fixed rates as they get more aggressive for what could be an interesting spring market. On the flip side, markets tend to take the path of most pain and with such strong job numbers coming out of the US, it could create a bit of a problem in their efforts to keep inflation in check. Time will tell.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

This week was all about macro economics as we looked at how the BoC raised rates again by 0.25% and we also assess the forward guidance provided by Tiff Macklem. Can we expect to see the BoC hold rates at the next announcement? Have they done enough to curb inflation? We also evaluate their credibility considering the last year, and will they achieve their inflation target given the respective timeframes? 

We have also recognized that Mortgage Rates at some of the major institutions across North America have already begun cutting their rates, especially insured rates, as the volume of sales continues its decline in the housing sector. With that being said, there are local rumours of stale listings all of sudden going into multiple offers and it appears to be true as Buyers who decided to stay out of the market throughout 2022 are frustrated with the lack of inventory and very little panic selling - at least to date - and have decided to pursue what’s currently available.

Lastly we take a dive into housing starts, Canadian housing inventory levels, the cost of rent in major metros along with a local Vancouver market recap. Spoiler alert, the volume of sales is extraordinarily low, inventory levels are at critically low levels and yet prices continue to persist having only fallen off by $40,000 on average since June 22'.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

It’s becoming more and more clear that the Bank of Canada is nearing the top of its current rate hike cycle as the latest inflation print showed real signs of slowing, down 0.5% to 6.3%, a welcome reprieve considering the last 9 months. However that likely won’t change the outcome of next week’s rate hike which will almost certainly come in at 0.25% -  a number largely baked into today’s economy. 

We also take a look at some of the major headlines reported this week in real estate, including comments from the Deputy Head Economist of CMHC who feels "We've seen quite a large price decline but there's such a shortage of new construction of new houses in Canada that this inexorable rise in demand is just going to continue in the future," Iorwerth said. - "Don't know exactly when it's going to kick in again, but the shortage in supply means the prices can't go down too much further."

Even the Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted prices will fall another 6% from their peak in 2022 and level out throughout 2023. They were even so bold as to predicted sales volume will increase by 10.2% in 2024; however if the last two years has taught us anything, it’s that predicting two years into the future with any degree of accuracy is a very difficult thing to do, especially considering the geo-political environment the world finds itself in. Any abrupt changes to our supply chains, to energy, fuel, and labour supply could pose a serious threat to the rebound from which our economy recovers from.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

This week was a good week in real estate, and the financial markets reflected a similar sentiment as US inflation data printed lower at 6.5% - down from its previous mark of 7.1%. 

This was the largest drop since July 2022, and was mostly led by lower fuel prices. This trend continues its 6th month decline as Inflation is now back to Oct 2021 levels; however core inflation remains sticky as it increased by 0.3%, totalling 5.7%.

In this week's podcast episode, we uncover how consumers really feel about their finances as result of the recent rate hike cycle and how that is affecting home buying decisions.

We look at recent debt surveys which indicate 1 in 4 mortgage holders say they’ll be forced to sell if rates increase much further. What does this mean for the real estate market in the coming months? Will there be a flood of listings or will the bank pivot sooner than later?

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

The stats are in for the last month of 2022 and while we know activity is low - we didn’t know it would be one of the lowest activity months ever recorded. Without a doubt Buyers and Sellers are digging in their respective heels to get what they want in this transitioning marketplace. Buyer’s are making the case for lower prices through tougher affordability and Sellers are still attached to the market that was here at the start of 2022. The divide between what Buyers are prepared to pay versus what Sellers are prepared to sell for is wide and it’ll take some time before we see more movement. 

That movement will come from the BoC shifting it’s position on it’s interest rate hike forecast along with compelling data that inflation is coming down - but alas, we aren’t there yet and it’ll likely be some months before we see higher levels of activity. With that said, there were a mere 1,206 new listings in the month of December and we sold nearly 1,300 homes. With inventory continuing to fall, it is artificially maintaining the market prices as Buyers struggle to find the quality they are looking for in the available inventory. 

Where do we go from here? The Bank of Canada will almost certainly be raising interest rates again this month - likely a quarter to half a point and this will depend largely on the inflation data we receive on January 12th. From there it’ll be a function of supply versus demand but with very few people listing, there won’t be much competition from other Sellers and many Buyers have parked their interest on the sideline until there’s better inventory quality. If you have a home in good shape and priced to market, it could be a surprising opportunity to sell now versus in the coming months when more listings will come to market.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

It’s customary here at The Vancouver Life  Real Estate Group, that at the end of every year we make predictions about how our Real Estate market will pan out in the year to come. 

This week we cover what we believe could be the major economic drivers and potential economic landmines for the real estate industry in 2023. Plus, we make our price predictions about where the value of real estate will go throughout the GVRD in 2023.

Getting specific, we take a look at condos, townhouses and single family homes and the respective forces that will affect their performance in the coming year. Will Townhouses outperform Single Family Homes next year? If so, in what market? Are we going to see further softening in the suburbs? What about downtown? 

We also take a look at the top 5 neighbourhoods that we think will outperform the average price growth in the GVRD. Predictions are made with respect to where the Bank of Canada will take interest rates by the end of 2023 and we discuss where inflation could end the year!

This episode is packed full of predictions, so tune in this week and get our insights on the year to come!

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

What a crazy year! Nothing tells the story of 2022 better than comparing the predictions we made at the start of this year with how they actually turned out. While we nailed a few predictions, we also had some significant misses as we review the year.

Historically, this episode is always a lot of fun but especially this time around as no one saw the extreme change in headwinds coming like the Bank of Canada did.  Yes, we even reviewed their promise to keep rates low until 2023 and how long they let inflation run before acting. 

While we felt interest rates would be a part of the story, no one could have predicted how quickly they rose. We take a swing at inflation numbers, price predictions, lockdown probabilities and much more on this entertaining episode. Next week we make a whole batch of new predictions for 2023.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

2023 is going to be full of change in the Real Estate industry as we have two major introductions that will change the landscape. With the introduction of the Foreign Buyer Ban and the Cooling Off Period, it remains to be seen if these measures will help alleviate the pain felt by Buyers in a hot market. There’s only one problem - there isn’t a hot market to test these on and with the amount redundancy's that have been written into the new policy’s we feel it’ll create more pain and confusion than anything else. 

The Foreign Buyer Ban is a very controversial policy as the Government intends to exclude all foreigners for a period of 2 years from buying any real estate in Canada. And yet in the same breath the Government has increased our immigration targets by substantial margins to replace the aging workforce and declining birthrate in Canada (hello rental wars - just when you thought rent was expensive enough). Last week we discussed that by 2032, most of Canada’s labor force will be foreign workers, and yet the very people who we need to work inside of our economy, who pay Canadian taxes, will not be allowed to buy Canadian Real Estate. Xenophobia is alive and well in Canadian politics. 

With all these changes coming compounded by a slowing marketplace there will be more hurt with further interest rate hikes expected in the new year. With that being said, it’s likely we will see these rate hikes slow to some degree and hopefully lessen in their size. However, there will be a number of opportunities that will come out of all of these changes and if you listen until the end of today’s episode, you’ll see exactly what some of these look like and when you could expect to see them.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

This weeks podcast has us exploring the new rate hike thanks to the BoC’s continued quantitative easing. While it’s been difficult for many seeing rates up 400 basis points in 9 months - that’s an eye watering 1,600% since the start of the rate hike cycle - and it has all but erased the credibility of the Bank of Canada who waited until inflation was at 6.7% before acting and indicated rates would be low until 2023. We explore the new debt levels faced by Canadians who have a whopping debt to GDP ratio of 117% or $75,000 per capita. These are the kinds of debt levels that will take a generation to pay off. 

As we look for solutions the only apparent saviour is immigration. Immigration has exploded this year as we hit 700,000 new immigrants in 2022 and 23% Canada’s population (or 8.3 million people) were either permanent residents or immigrants before becoming citizens. Furthermore, immigrants now account for most of Canada’s labour force and by 2032 most of Canada’s increasing population base will be entirely new immigrants. As we close out 2022 and look towards more aggressive immigration targets in the years ahead, places like Quebec are reducing the amount of new immigrants (they will only take 10% as they intend to preserve their French Canadian heritage). This will eventually put more and more housing pressure on other metro’s like Toronto & Vancouver in the years to come.

Comparison as they say is the thief of joy - unless you’re a Vancouverite comparing the housing market to our fellow Torontonians. Inventory levels are up 160% in some Toronto suburbs and while 2021 saw 12,000 pre-sale units sell, 2022 will end the year with about 3,000 pre-sales sold!! That's a jaw dropping fall off in sales volume. Furthermore prices have fallen beyond 20% in Toronto while Vancouver sits around 12-13% and inventory remains incredibly tight. For two major metros that often move in unison, we are starting to see the divergence of the marketplaces with Vancouver showing off its resilience in a difficult market.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com

The Bank of Canada is set to raise rates, yet again, next week further impacting the already heavily stressed mortgage market.  Effective payments to pay for a typical home have doubled in the past 2 years and variable rate holders are feeling the pinch. We dive into what will happen next and when you can expect rates to start coming down. 

November stats are in and we look at the National level and at the local level whereby we look at inventory levels, sales volumes and what is happening to prices in Vancouver. Despite all of the recent action from the BoC and consumer confidence below that of the global financial crisis - how is it that prices have remained very consistent for the last 5 consecutive months?

From there we take a broad look at national prices and inventory levels to see how they measure up to our local marketplace. Interestingly, we take a dive into the Bank of Canada’s first recorded loss in its 87 year history and how they’ve painted themselves into a corner that’s getting harder and harder to get out of. We review what was said and forecasted versus the actual outcome and what it means for markets going forward.

This week is a loaded episode with some great macro and micro level data that you surely don’t want to miss. With a rate hike coming next week here in Canada, we take a stab at what that rate hike looks like and how it will affect the market as we head into 2023.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

[email protected]

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
[email protected]

www.thevancouverlife.com