On the one hand, President Trump's trip to Asia resulted in some trade deals including with China, broadly in line with expectations but nonetheless were welcome news for markets. On the other hand, the hawkish twist by the Fed was a surprise, which led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a rise in Treasury yields. We explain why we no longer expect a cut by the Fed in December but still see three rate cuts next year. We also discuss the US-China trade truce and the impact on China's growth outlook, and why we forecast a non-consensus Bank of England cut. Chapters: 02:23, China: 09:18, Asia: 14:01, Europe: 21:02.