In only three of the past thirty years did the S&P 500 index do as well or better than what it has done year-to-date. A consolidation or correction is likely over the next month or so and indeed would be a healthy thing, for the market to carry on later in a sustainable manner. While it’s still early days, Q2 earnings look like they will beat the consensus forecast of 9.7% y/y (which is already the highest since Q4 2021). Odds infer that if the Democrat Party picked a nominee other than Vice President Kamala Harris, its chances of winning the presidential election would be over 50%. But almost all the potential candidates have already pledged their support to her, meaning they don’t want to run. Donald Trump is therefore most likely to win, which in general is perceived as a market-friendly event.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.