A sequential rise in February core inflation is not cause for concern, as it is due to “residual seasonality”, an auto insurance outlier, and residential real estate which will come down. The S&P 500 index’s positive return in each of the last four months is something that only happened 16 times before; on average after those times, it returned 16% to the end of the year. There is a break-out in the downward trend of the Chinese stock market, and the gradient is turning positive in several economic data series there. Japan’s wages will be 5.3% higher than last year, the largest increase since 1991. We look for the Bank of Japan to raise the policy rate from -0.1% to 0.2% a year from now.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.