Summary:
Today on the podcast, Octavio Marenzi and I discuss the struggle to learn from history in addressing the ongoing issues in Afghanistan—to which no empire has been able to prevail. We discuss the financial consequences of this defeat; Marenzi expresses that we will perhaps see a period where it is increasingly difficult to get large military budgets passed. For defense contractors, it is a massive gain to not win, and we see that corporations and governments have their own overarching interests and agendas. We recap fluctuations in Gold and Bitcoin, and Marenzi provide useful insight into the future of these currencies and responses to expect from the Fed.

Highlights:
-Setback for the US and western civilization - humiliating withdraw of the United States
-It was inevitable once we decided to stay there
-The only thing we learn from history is that we don’t learn from history.
-Comparing the fall of Carpel to the fall of Saigon
-Other empires have been involved here - the Soviet met their final defeat from Afghanistan
-Even Alexander the Great met his undoing in this area
-No empire has been able to conquer it, and it is somewhat similar to the China/Vietnam situation
-throughout history, the Chinese have always been concerned about maintaining power internally rather than externally
-We would think that defense stocks would skyrocket
-In one day of war, they can make more money during a year of peace
-Marenzi thinks we are going to see a period where it is very difficult to get large military budgets passed
-Military spending is perhaps going to be significantly curtailed
-The US will probably be more careful from here on out with getting involved in foreign matters
-The US could have withdrawn at a different time
-Afghanistan has never been an advanced economy, and the nation building seemed to be flawed from the very beginning
-Perhaps the goal was not to win, but to earn as much money as possible
-For defense contractors, it is a massive gain
-Corporations and governments have their own interests and agendas, and the more military hardware they can sell—the better
-We have never seen so much money spent with so little results - what is the return on investment? It seems to be much less than zero
-What’s next? Joe Biden has been weakened by this, and has undermined many alliances around the world. He seemed to be the steady hand in foreign policy, but has now found himself in the worst debacle in American foreign policy
-As long as the Fed keeps buying bonds, the market will go up because of the wall of cash coming in monthly. At some point, the fed will have to rethink this but it doesn’t seem as if we’re close to this yet.
-Marenzi predicts we will probably go back and replay the last year in terms of vaccine mandates and lockdowns
-Is gold going to go higher? It seems to be stepping sideways, and has not necessarily followed the inflation pattern
-Maybe we should put our money in crypto? It seems to give gold some competition
-Central banks around the world will perhaps become more skeptical of cryptocurrencies, and will not give up the ability to print money very easily
-Governments will either shut cryptos down, or regulate them very heavily—we will ultimately come back to gold

Useful Links:
Financial Survival Network
Opimas