Grain Markets and Other Stuff

This is Not a Bullish Weather Forecast


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0:00 Weather
3:39 "Mr. NICE GUY"
8:11 Export Sales
9:24 Brazil Corn Harvest
10:26 The Funds
11:27 Flash Sales

πŸ“‰ Rain Returns, Trade Tensions Rise & Export Sales Slide 🌽🌧️🌎

πŸ‘€ Here's what you need to know this week in the grain markets:

🌦️ Weekend Rain Recap & Forecast Outlook
Rainfall was limited to the southeastern Corn Belt with up to 1.5" in parts of IL, IN, OH, and KY. The rest of the region stayed dry, but buckle up β€” forecasts show widespread rain this week! CropProphet expects 1.8" average rain across US corn areas. 🌧️ 

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Trump vs. China: Trade Tensions Back On
Trump accused China of violating a trade deal and vowed not to be β€œMr. NICE GUY” anymore. Visa revocations, chip export controls, and stalled talks sent a chill through markets. πŸ€πŸ“‰

πŸ“‰ US Export Sales Fall
Corn: Down 23% W/W – πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan tops the list
Soybeans: Missed expectations – πŸ‡²πŸ‡½ Mexico leads
Wheat: Weak but improved – πŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ Venezuela steps in

πŸ‡§πŸ‡· Brazil Corn Harvest Lagging
Only 1.05% harvested vs. 2.7% LY. But crop size is up sharply:
Safrinha corn: 99.8 MMT (+11%)
Total corn: 126.9 MMT (+10%)


πŸ’° Funds Shift Positions
The Funds trimmed corn shorts and went long in soybeans:
+5K corn 🟒
+30K soybeans (largest net long since Feb!) 🫘
+7K SRW wheat 🌾

🚒 Flash Corn Sale!
US exporters sold 210K mt to unknown destinations.
145K for '24/25 πŸ“…
65K for '25/26 🚒

πŸ“ˆ Stay informed, subscribe for updates, and drop your thoughts in the comments! πŸ’¬πŸ‘‡

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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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