This Week In College Viability (TWICV)

This episode is with Dr. Ricardo Aziz. He actually wrote the book on college mergers and acquisitions, and we're going to use his expertise today. He has over 25 years of leadership experience as a principal with strategic partnerships in higher education. He led the merger that resulted in the Georgia Regents University, now Augusta University.  Dr. Aziz served as the founding president and led the merger of the Georgia Health Sciences University. He has written four books and his work has been cited in too many publications to list.

He also writes regular columns in Higher Ed Dive and other publications as well. He's the founder of the Nonprofit Foundation for Research and Education Excellence, where he's also founder and director of the Center for Higher Education Mergers and Acquisitions. Our topic today is mergers and acquisitions in higher education and the impact that the recent DOE rule changes might have on those consolidations.

IN this episode, we verbally travel from the east coast to the midwest to chronicle the financial health and viability saga of private colleges.

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Here are the stories we are following on October 16, 2023.

Christian Brothers University to cut $4M from budget to address deficit

Vermont State University president recommends cutting 10 degree programs and up to 33 faculty positions

Keuka College’s Financial Health is Strong  (NY)

Lesley University is laying off faculty members, cutting programs amid budget crunch

Chatham University (Pittsburg) reduces staff, streamlines operations to address budget deficit

Defiance College on probationary status in one of 18 criteria required by HLC

Columbia College closing campuses

Headlines and links

Whatever it is, I’m against it.  IHE New book by former Macalaster College President Brian Rosenberg

What qualities do college leaders need to lead major institutional restructuring?  Ricardo Azziz in Higher Ed Dive

St. Norbert College Layoffs Blamed On Enrollment Decline and Budget Issues       Rachel Charniak WTAQ 1360 AM radio

Welcome to Kendom: 13% of students escape from Emporia State after ex-Koch exec’s takeover | Opinion     The Wichita Eagle Dion Lefler

More Colleges, Universities Announce Budget Cuts Amid Financial Woes         Forbes  Michael Nietzel

Get your link to the 2023 College Viability app here.

Parent's College Viability app

2023 Faculty & Staff College Viability app - Essentials

2023 College Viability Suite for Private and Public Colleges

2023 Executive Analysis College Viability app

This episode includes discussions on 

1. The student fiduciary
2. Worry about Columbia College in Chicago
3. New VP Enrollment at Millikin U (IL)  (comes from the recently closed Iowa Wesleyan University)
4. Financial exigency
5. The IWU garage and rummage sale - coming to a college near you.
6. Whoa is me impact of student load repayment on college enrollment
7. New book:  'Whatever it is. I'm against it'  by President Emeritus Brian Rosenberg of Macalaster College (MN)
8. Australia wants to 'just pass everyone'
9. Kansas is a messas
10. Miami U (OH) cuts 17 low-enrollment programs.  Good for them.

Do you want access to the 2023 College Viability app for your organization or family?   Here are the links.

2023 Product links

Parent's College Viability app

2023 Faculty & Staff College Viability app - Essentials

2023 College Viability Suite for Private and Public Colleges

2023 Executive Analysis College Viability app

Iowa private colleges are in a tough market.  The state of Iowa is one of four on my list of high-risk states for college closures.  The other three are Wisconsin, New York, and Pennsylvania.  I am being nice.  I could probably have 10 states on my list.

Graceland and Wartburg recently announces tuition resets.  Central has a modest graduation date guarantee.  Simpson College just rounded out the set of 4 because their enrollment was similar.

This episode is a different take on my Top-Bottom posts.  I use a newly created summary I developed from the College Viabilty app to more readily compare these 4 colleges.   

Bottom line:  I worry the die is already cast for colleges like these.  I share my thoughts in this episode of TWICV.

My name is Gary Stocker, and we continue today on our journey to inform college students and their families and faculty and staff and many others about what is really going on inside higher education. Of course, the focus is on college finances and viability, but we also try to shine the light. on the many transparency issues or lack of transparency from college leaders for both public and private colleges. Going to start off today with an article from New York Times Magazine.

Show note links:
Tulane featured in New York Times Magazine article about declining male college enrollmentBy KASEY BUBNASH at Nola.com 9-12----‘
There Was Definitely a Thumb on the Scale to Get Boys’Susan Dominus from the NYT----
Some universities’ response to budget woes: Making faculty teach more coursesJON MARCUS APR 2021 (Hechinger Report)----
U.S. News’ Rankings Not the ‘Behemoth’ Perceived 9-13 Jessica Blake----Ron Lieber NYT “The Price You Pay for College”
Link to online course on how to get more merit aid.----
Wartburg College to reduce tuition by 45%, boost aid for students The WCF Courier----
More belt-tightening ahead for UP (Univ of Portland)The Beacon ( student site) by Riley Martinez

Here is a quick summary of one of the stories discussed in this podcast.

As I read this, I realized the folks at Lakeland use a lot of big words for a university that can’t even graduate 50% of its students: AFTER 6 YEARS! Admissions Yield is down 27 points, tuition and fees down $4M

The story uses words like: visionary initiative, groundbreaking partnership, transformative alliances, and high-quality higher education for our community. I would humbly suggest they start being transformative by graduating more of the students they already have.

This is yet another example in the endless efforts by colleges to win via PR. While it is likely they will have some number of students complete this BS at a Blackhawk Technical Colleges, it is almost certain that Lakeland and the other participating colleges will drive anything close to materially significant new net revenue.

I need to come up with a catch phrase to describe this business by PR model.Enrollment does not pay the bills, net collected tuition and fees do.Here are the links to the stories referenced in this podcast

Hodges University announced their closure Friday evening, August 25th.Who is responsible for letting these colleges stay open?

To the data: (From the College Viability App and IPEDS data 2014-2021)
1.  FTE enrollment down more than 1,000 students (-73%)
2. 4 and 6-year graduation rates averaged about 10% and 15%, respectively. These are the lowest I have seen for closing colleges.
3. Hodges 2021 endowment was less than $3M.
4. Total assets were down almost $14M (-17%)
5. In the past few years, they weren't even posting all of their IPEDS data to the National Center for Education Statistics

Their 2022 audited financial statement showed P&L losses of amost $5M over the past two years.

Is anybody home at Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on Colleges (SACSCOC) I checked their web site. The December 2022 actions included an substantive discussion of Hodges and its weaknesses - yet the agency gave something called: 'continued accreditation for Good Cause (caps included) Here is the link

Who are these accreditors serving? Crashing colleges? Innocent students and their famlies? Faculty? Staff?
Here is the full College Viability blog on this story.

For faculty and staff: Here is a courtesy link to compare enrollment of more than 1,300 private colleges from 2014-2021 (the last reported year)

For college leaders and boards, here is a link purchase both the public and private college versions of the 2023 College Viability Apps.Here is the link to Doug Lederman's IHE story about Hodges closure.

In this episode of TWICV, we look at the PR efforts of 3 colleges. We talk about spin, tranparency, and more.

The market pressures on both public and private colleges will continue to move toward consolidation in some format. The recently released DOE rule changes on mergers will not substantively change the direction the HE market was already headed.

The DOE changes in merger criteria and processes will only expedite market forces already in place. Specifically, more closures; few consolidations (mergers).I have already noted that many financially-stressed private colleges wait too long to engage in consolidation discussions. They typically wait so long that any potential partners who look at their finances regulalry take a hard pass.

I continue to argue that the die is already cast for many smaller, mostly rural private colleges.There are already 200-plus private colleges on my viability watch list using FTE enrollment, admissions yield. 4-year graduation rates, and endowment as the criteria.

While it is unlikely all 200-plus will close, it is all but certain many will.

Here is the link to the IHE story by Katherine Knott.

Here is a promotional link to both the private and public college versions of the College Viability app. 

Each version retails at $1,500. Through December 31st, you can order both for $947.