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✅ Today’s Focus: Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend & Inflation Risks

📊 💰 Economic & Policy Updates
President Trump announced plans for a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to most Americans. He said the payout would exclude high-income earners and be funded by tariff revenue, which he also pledged to use toward the $37 trillion national debt. Any such payments would likely need congressional approval.
Scott Bessent later clarified that support could come in other forms, such as tax cuts. Meanwhile, Trump’s team is pushing for a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage program, both moves viewed as potentially inflationary.

🥩 🐄 Meatpackers Under Fire
Trump accused major meatpacking companies of manipulating beef prices and urged the Justice Department to investigate. Beef prices remain high as the US cattle herd sits at its smallest size in 74 years. The Meat Institute defended the industry, citing transparency and oversight, while USDA data shows packers facing steep losses expected to continue into next year.

🍔 🏢 Texas Roadhouse Outlook
Texas Roadhouse expects commodity costs to rise 6% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, driven by higher beef prices. Commodity inflation reached 7.9% in Q3, but the chain offset pressure through 1.7% menu price hikes and strong customer traffic. Same-store sales rose 6.1%, beating forecasts.

🌏 🇨🇳 China Trade Developments
China will reinstate soybean import licenses for CHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT on Nov. 10, easing tensions after a recent Trump–Xi trade truce. The move follows tariff cuts and limited US grain purchases. Still, traders remain cautious about China’s follow-through on purchase commitments.

🌾 📈 Fund Position Estimates
Private data (amid the government shutdown) suggest:
Corn: net short 40–60K
Soybeans: net long 100–150K
SRW Wheat: net short 50–80K
Funds were net buyers of 7K soybean contracts last week and ended the week flat in corn. The Senate moved closer to ending the shutdown after a bipartisan vote on Sunday.

⛽ 🧪 Biofuel Waiver Rulings
The EPA granted biofuel blending exemptions to HF Sinclair and Phillips 66, while Chevron was denied. The waivers apply to blending obligations from 2021–2023 and were issued for economic hardship. Biofuel producers warned the move could undermine renewable fuel demand and add market uncertainty.