The fear that a re-elected Trump would pull the US out of NATO haunts European leaders. Now he says he’d actively encourage Putin to attack European countries who haven’t “paid their bills”. Could a second Trump presidency really open the door for war in Europe? What contingency plans is NATO making? Has Europe really underspent on defence? And is Putin exploiting cracks in the European hard right and left for his own ends?

Gavin Esler talks to historian and Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Dr Helene von Bismarck and Peter Apps, author of Deterring Armageddon: A Biography Of NATO, about Trump’s dangerous ideas and populism’s Putin problem.

• “It would be incredibly naive to imagine that, if Trump is re-elected, Europe will simple reorganise itself to compensate… That takes time and it is time we don’t have.” – Helene von Bismarck

• “Regardless of whether we get another Trump presidency, the days in which Europe was America’s top priority are over.” – Peter Apps

• “In the next five to eight years it’s not impossible that Russia might attack a NATO state… We have to start preparing to prevent this worst-case scenario.” – Helene von Bismarck

• “The head of the Estonian military talks in terms of Russia being able to recharge enough to attack a NATO country within one year of fighting stopping in Ukraine.” – Peter Apps

Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more.

When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices