Grain Markets and Other Stuff

UGLY Start to 2024: Why Did Corn and Soybean Prices Collapse on Tuesday??


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0:00 Intro + Corn and Soybean Collapse
2:00 Brazil Estimates and Weather
5:04 "The Funds"
5:48 China/Taiwan
7:46 Red Sea / Iran
8:48 Export Sales
9:44 Stock Market Wins 2023
11:27 Cattle and Outside Markets

Corn and soybean futures saw significant declines on Tuesday, with the Mar24 corn contract dropping over 7 cents per bushel and closing at a life-of-contract low. Meanwhile, the Dec24 corn contract closed below $5.00 for the first time since July. The Mar24 soybean contract also faced a sharp drop, losing more than 24 cents and closing at its lowest level since June. This decline was primarily attributed to improved weather conditions in Brazil, with some analysts also considering a potential slowdown in Chinese demand. ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ“‰๐ŸŒฑ

Estimates for Brazil's soybean crop continue to be revised downward. StoneX reduced its projection for this season's Brazilian soybean crop to 152.8 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 161.9 million tons, citing a lack of precipitation as the reason for the reduction. South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier also cut his projection to 151 million tons due to lower yields on early-harvested soybeans. ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐ŸŒฑ๐Ÿ“‰

Large money managers made adjustments in their positions, with a net increase of 10k contracts of corn, 1k contracts of soybeans, and 6k contracts of SRW wheat during the week ending December 26. ๐Ÿ“Š๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ’ฐ

China's President Xi Jinping reiterated during his New Year's Eve address that he believes China and Taiwan will eventually be reunified, despite Taiwan's insistence on its independence and its upcoming elections on January 13th, which will play a significant role in determining the future of China-Taiwan relations. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ

Iran sent a warship to the Red Sea after the US Navy destroyed three Houthi boats that were attempting to hijack a Maersk shipping vessel. This incident led to Maersk suspending Red Sea transit, and the situation in the region remains tense as various naval forces patrol the area. ๐Ÿšข๐ŸŒŠ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

US corn export sales improved, with net sales of 1.2 million metric tons (49 million bushels), driven in large part by Mexican purchases. However, soybean sales were poor, totaling 983,900 metric tons (36 million bushels), with China as the largest buyer. Wheat sales also declined. ๐ŸŒฝ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿšข

The stock market closed out 2023 with impressive gains, driven by a strong economy, declining inflation, and speculation of reduced interest rates in the coming months. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all posted substantial gains for the year, with expectations of continued momentum into 2024, pending Federal Reserve actions. ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ’ผ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿ“Š

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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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