Does what goes for Greenland and Gaza also go for Ukraine? With the third anniversary of Russia's all-out invasion approaching and Kyiv on the back foot, allies are scrambling to figure out the "art of the deal" power plays of a US president they thought they already knew. Do you placate or push back when dealing with Donald Trump? Ukraine's president has been showing transactional flair by vaunting his country's rare minerals in exchange for protection from Vladimir Putin. Zelensky is now openly contemplating what Trump wants: direct negotiations with Moscow. We review terms and conditions and – on the day that France delivered its first Mirage jets to Kyiv – the degree of volatility that the coming weeks and months may bring for Ukraine and for a Europe that's still divided over whether to wean itself off its reliance on the United States for its own security.

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Elisa Amiri, Ilayda Habip.