Nellie Bowles is one of the few journalists who lives and writes in the Venn diagram of both Adaam and Vanessa’s interests. For years she was the tech reporter for The New York Times and her epic 2022 piece on San Francisco’s decline for The Atlantic deservedly kicked up a lot of attention, including from your podcast hosts  — for different reasons, of course. In 2021, she left “mainstream” media and started the independent media outlet The Free Press with her wife Bari Weiss (where she writes the TGIF newsletter). In this conversation we talk about SF (following up on our conversation with Vishaan Chakrabarti), tech culture, ideological capture, media mediocrity, and the joys (really) of parenthood.

Check out our ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for updates and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

On the agenda:

-Nellie, great writer, enthusiastic new parent [0:00-7:24]

-The s**t show that is San Francisco [7:25-17:56]

-Preserving painted ladies vs. laundromats [17:57-29:18]

-The saga of Chesa Boudin [29:19-44:15]

-Covering tech’s heart, mind, and scams [44:16-1:09:19]

-Wrapping Up and Being Kind [1:09:20-1:13:52]

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

Behold! The recording of our first ever live event! We were graced by the thoughts, arguments, and non-English accents of Niall Ferguson — economic historian, fellow at Stanford, and author of many books, including Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe — and Martin Gurri — a former media analyst for the CIA and author of The Revolt of The Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium (a.k.a the Uncertain Things bible). We dug into all manner of apocalyptica: the collapse of our media institutions (so long credibility), the increasing tensions with China (hello Cold War II), and the despair that has engulfed our minds. Plus, we learn the answer to all our woes: Thomas Hardy.

Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ blog and ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

On the agenda:

-Great Debate, Real Humans, and Computer Failure [0:00-7:53]

-Vietnam War vs. Today [7:54-20:56] 

-Trump Derangement Syndrome [20:57-27:54] 

-Cold War II in the Internet Age [27:55-44:07] 

-If Our Cold War Turns Hot [44:08-49:09]

-Pathologies, Ideologies, and Despair [49:10-58:58]

-Crisis of American Education [58:59-1:02:20] 

-What Keeps Our Guests Up at Night [1:02:21-1:06:33]

-The tradeoffs of Cold War II [!;06:34-1:11:19]

-Peak humanity [1:11:20-1:14:55]

-Ukraine/Taiwan Scenarios [1:14:56-1:16:19]

-Human Agency and Thomas Hardy [1:16:20-1:19:21]

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

Special thanks to Niall, Martin, and Connor Lynch for making this event possible.

Image source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/turatti/6726041123

Journalist Helen Lewis spent much of last year knee-deep in gurus — the Steve Jobs, Russell Brands, and Jordan Petersons who captivate (and capture) audiences with their spiritual aura and (increasingly) podcasts  — while reporting The New Gurus. She postulates that they derive their popularity, in part, to the decline of religion in our societies, a topic she explored in her reporting for The Church of Social Justice and The Roots of Woke Culture. In this convo, we cover religion, gurus, genius, feminism, and her infamous interview with Jordan Peterson.

Find more of Helen's work at The Atlantic or on her Substack.

Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ blog and ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

On the agenda:

-The first Uncertain Things event! [0:00-3:21]

-Setting up Helen [03:22-6:50]

-The decline of religion [06:51-20:38]

-Words, names, and language [20:39-29:26]

-The Joe Rogan test [29:27-43:23]

-Gurus, genius, and the content economy [43:24-51:33]

-Journalists, human-sized narratives, and strong men [51:34-1:09:32]

-How to Interview Jordan Peterson(s) [1:09:33]

-Religion replacements [1:22:04-1:26:36]

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

Vanessa has admired the New York Times’ architecture critic Michael Kimmelman ever since she was a starry-eyed youngster starting her urban journalism career. Now that his latest book The Intimate City is out, it was the perfect excuse to have him on the show. She and Adaam ask Michael what it was like at the Times in the late ‘80s when he started out, continue the conversation they started with Vishaan Chakrabarti about Progressives’ urban failings, discuss the non-profit journalism division that he helped spawn, and contemplate the importance of time when it comes to making (and appreciating) great cities.   

Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ blog and ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

On the agenda:

-Criticism, Community, and other Pet Topics [0:00-10:05]

-The New York Times, from Shabby Palace to Citadel [10:06-26:12]

-Anacostia, the High Line, and Gentrification [26:13-36:07]

-What’s Community (and Preservation) Anyway? [36:08-47:56]

-A Culture of Fear of Change [47:57-56:20]

-The Role of the Critic [56:21-1:09:59]

-The Pragmatism of Houston [1:10:00-1:18:51]

-Walking Through the City [1:18:52-1:23:50]

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

The Personal, The Political, and The Urban. Adaam and Vanessa discuss the episodes from the year that stuck with them most — and reflect on the unexpected ways these conversations are thematically linked together. 

With Mark Lilla, they continued mulling on the questions they began considering back in season one with Tom Holland and Tomer Persico — i.e. where do we derive morality in a post-religious age? What are the socio-cultural and religious undercurrents that can help explain our current malaise? Perhaps most pointedly, “how much morality is enough?” And to what extent should we disentangle the political from the personal (at this point, Adaam — with an assist from his mother — brings Christopher Hitchens into the conversation.)

They then revisit their conversation with Yascha Mounk, in which Adaam and Yascha debated the extent to which oppression gives groups meaning — and, thus, the extent to which liberal democracy (as much as we love it) can actually undermine group cohesion. Adaam and Vanessa also reflect on diversity and nationalism, and their (inverse?) relationships to democracy. 

From the rise of fervent nationalists, they veer into a conversation about apathetic urbanites — and revisit their interview with Vishaan Chakrabarti. They reflect on Americans’ seeming inability to demand better urbanism, and ask: will we ever get the locally-rich cities we need?

They close with a quick reflection on their varied, lively conversation with Christene Rosen, in which we (ironically enough) weaved the political with the personal (what can we say, internal consistency is just not one of our values - #cognitivedissonance). 

Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ blog and ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

If you haven’t already, make sure to check out these great episodes: 

-Philosopher Mark Lilla

-Urbanist Vishaan Chakrabarti

-Political Theorist Yascha Mounk

-Commentator Christene Rosen 

On the agenda:

-[0:00-8:15] End of year preamble and predictions 

-[8:16-14:16] Musing on Mark Lilla 

-[14:17-21:56] Must the personal always be political?

-[21:57-32:17] Noodling on Yascha Mounk 

-[32:18-37:29] Considering Vishaan Chakrabarti

-[37:30-41:12] Christene Rosen reflections and our year-end conclusions 

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

Robin Hanson is an economics professor who kept running across conundrums of human behavior in his research. Why do we spend so much of our GDP on medicine —  even when studies show that more medicine does not lead to better health outcomes? Why have we spent years perfecting methods of instruction — yet educational institutions keep resisting the very reforms that would help us learn better? Along with his colleague, Kevin Simler, Hanson went to evolutionary biology to find a theory that helps explain all the contradictions, which he describes in their book The Elephant in the Brain. In this conversation, we dive deep into his findings and dwell in the not-so-flattering corners of human psychology. 

Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ blog and ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

On the agenda:

* Clothing Emperors, Dropping Schmeckles [0:00-12:52]

* Inefficient Evolution, Inspirational Speakers [12:53-20:04]

* Medicine: WTF? Part 1 [20:05-31:44]

* Evolutionary Psychology, Motives, and Norms [31:45-45:46] 

* Medicine: WTF? Part 2 [45:47-50:39]

* Marriage, Parenting, and Education [50:40-56:56]

* Institutions and Mobs [56:57-1:04:17]

* Comedic Statutes of Limitations [1:04:18-1:12:54]

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

Eli Lake — host of The Re-Education Podcast, contributing editor to Commentary, and columnist for the New York Sun — is a Neo-Conservative, Neither-Trumper as comfortable talking about the FBI  as the musical genius of Ye. Eli was game to debate ideas, have his opinions challenged, and cover a wide-range of topics — from the Israeli elections and American midterms, to the legitimacy (or lack thereof) of artist’s political opinions, to the merits of Love in the Time of Cholera, to the importance of letting cultural norms settle over time. 

Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ blog and ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

On the agenda:

-Israel's Red Wave - What is it and why is it here? [05:39-27:25]

-The Genius and Folly of Ye [27:26-46:14]

-The Moral Dimension of Art [46:15-50:39]

-KANtreversYE [53:04-1:04:32]

-Short-Circuiting Norms and Influencing Elections [1:04:33-1:13:29]

-On being offended and partisan soul-searching [1:13:30-1:21:32]

-Ode to Robert Caro [1:21:33-1:23:55]

-On Neo-Conservatives and the FBI [1:23:56-1:31:07]

-Blindspots & talking about sexuality [1:31:08-[1:39:30] 

-Midterms Post-Script [1:39:31-1:53:55]

Go deeper:

-Bibi’s Back, Baby (Dispatch) 

-Red Wave Over Israel (Re-Education)

-In for a Kanye. In for a Pound.(Re-Education)

-The Feminist Critique (Re-Education)

Artwork by Kasiq Fashion.

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

Andrew Heaton, host of The Political Orphanage and our favorite “tepid grab bag” of political punditry, returns to the pod to help us understand the big issues at stake before the midterm elections: abortion, inflation, and culture war stuff. Along the way, Heaton explains why having sex on the hood of a car isn’t always a good idea, why dating in our era of partisan politics is exhausting, and why we need electoral reforms (like rank choice voting and multi-party systems) to save us from ourselves.

 Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ blog and ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

On the agenda:

-Heaton and housekeeping [00:00-7:35]

-The arts of engaging celebrities and podcasting [7:36-14:07]

-Tribalism Games [14:08-25:13]

-Two party vs. Multi-party systems [25:14-38:03]

-Punditry part 1A: Abortion and Inflation [38:04-48:19]

-A tangent on expertise and authority [48:20-58:16]

-Punditry part 1B: Abortion, continued [58:17-1:09:25]

-Punditry part 2: Partisanship and Ron DeSantis [1:09:26-1:21:14]

Go deeper:

-Adaam’s newsletter about why everything feels so broken

-Andrew’s Uncertain Things debut

-Adaam on The Political Orphanage: cognitive dissonance FTW

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

Scientist-turned-historian Peter Turchin is best known for a dire prediction he made in 2010: we were headed for serious unrest, circa 2020. Peter came to this (as-so-happened) accurate prediction by treating the soft science of history like a hard one — what he calls cliodynamics. He and his team quantified indicators of social unrest in previous historical periods, generating a database of information, and then created a structural-dynamic model that could determine the biggest drivers of social violence and societal collapse. Peter, who’s currently serving as the Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, talks to us about his approach to history, the factors that are most responsible for our current period of unrest, and the actions that could, just maybe, divert us from Civil War II. 

 Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ blog and ‘Uncertainty’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

On the agenda:

-Peter pre-amble and Vishaan post-script (0:00-7:01)

-How cliodynamics work? (07:02-17:21)

-Quantifying instability, locating gaps, and making predictions (17:22-28:33

-The state of our present-day empire (28:34-38:28)

-The trouble with too many elites (38:29-51:34)

-How to stop an unfolding trainwreck (51:35-1:02:44)

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.

Urbanist, architect, and professor Vishaan Chakrabarti joins us to explain how the f*** cities got so expensive — and, while we’re at it, ugly. Vishaan is both a doer and a thinker — he’s the founder and creative director of Practice for Architecture and Urbanism as well as a writer of books, talker of TEDs, and a collaborator of journalists (see: "Not Your Car"). In this conversation, we dig into the affordability crisis, why Progressives keep running cities into the ground, and what we need to do to have better cities — and lives.

 Check out our ‘Inscrutable’ newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.

On the agenda:

-Prelude [0:00-7:05]

-The Uncertainty Newsletter! [7:06-8:29]

-A History of Housing: The Arms Race and Race [8:30-22:27]

-Bubblegum, shoestring, and vicious circles [22:28-27:31]

-The many ramifications of Reagan [27:32-34:28]

-When cities became safe and sexy [34:29-43:48]

-Progressive cities' misguided policies [43:49-47:49]

-The absurdity and cruelty of San Francisco (see: Nellie Bowles’ “How SF Became a Failed City”) [47:50-52:53]

-The aftermath of Jane Jacobs [52:54-1:00:40]

-Community engagement conundrums [1:00:41-1:11:48]

-On gentrification, cars, and future urbanites [1:11:49-1:20:37]

-The national vs. the urbanist conversation [1:20:38-1:26:14]

-NYC vs. SF [1:26:15-1:36:01]

-Why are cities so depressing? [1:36:02-1:44:34]

-Blindspots [1:44:35-1:47:22]

Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com.