• China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources.
• European and US equity futures are stronger across the board, with sentiment boosted after strong NVIDIA results and as CEO Huang shrugged off “AI bubble” woes.
• DXY is firmer into the September NFP report, JPY unreactive to further jawboning.
• WTI and Brent edge higher, with some strength seen after Russia’s Kremlin said no peace talks with the US are taking place; XAU dips a touch.
• JGBs lag with stimulus in focus, USTs bearish as the data fog continues.
• Looking ahead, Highlights include, EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Nov), US NFP (Sep), US Jobless Claims (w/e 15 Nov), New Zealand Trade Balance (Oct), Australian Flash PMIs (Nov), Japanese Nationwide CPI (Oct), SARB Policy Announcement, Fed’s Cook, Barr, Hammack, Paulson, Miran, Goolsbee; BoE’s Dhingra, Mann. Supply from the US. Earnings from Gap and Walmart.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• US lawmakers are reportedly considering a new bill to codify China AI chip export curbs, according to Bloomberg sources; the White House has reportedly asked Congress to reject the bill curbing NVIDIA (NVDA) exports.
• US Commerce Department plans to approve export of 70,000 advanced AI chips to UAE and Saudi Arabia, according to WSJ sources; Export deal includes approval for NVIDIA's (NVDA) GB300 or equivalent chips.
• China’s October rare earth magnet exports to the US rose 56.1% from September, according to customs data.
• European Commission will, on Monday, present a list of sectors it wishes to be exempt from US tariffs to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer, via Politico citing sources; includes medical devices, wines, spirits, beers & pasta

EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) opened entirely in the green, with sentiment boosted following strong earnings from NVIDIA (see below). Price action today has been fairly sideways at elevated levels as markets await US NFP later.
• European sectors hold a strong positive bias. It is no surprise that Tech is at the top of the pile, in tandem with pre-market gains in NVIDIA (+5%). The likes of ASML (+1.4%) and Infineon (+1.5%) both move higher.
• US equity futures (ES +1.2% NQ +1.5% RTY +0.7%) are stronger across the board, with very clear outperformance in the Tech-heavy NQ, following NVIDIA results. In brief, the Co. reported stronger-than-expected revenue and upbeat sales guidance eased investor worries about heavy AI spending. NVIDIA saw data centre sales rise 66% driven by Blackwell and GB300 demand; it noted that cloud GPUs are sold out, strong gaming, visualisation, robotics growth, though limited China sales.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
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NVIDIA Commentary Highlights:

• CEO on AI bubble: CEO Huang says there has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble but "we see something different."
• CFO on China: Will continue to cooperate on China. Sizeable purchase orders for H20 AI chip never materialised in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China. Not expecting data-centre-compute revenue from China in Q4.
• CEO Comments: NVIDIA has done a really good job in terms of planning and supply chains. NVIDIA will continue to do stock buybacks. More successful this year vs last year.
• CFO Comments: Still in early innings. Reiterates visibility into USD 500bn Blackwell and Rubin revenue. Cloud services are sold out. Demand continues to exceed expectations.

FX

• DXY is a little firmer today and currently trading towards the upper end of a 100.10 to 100.32 range. From a technical standpoint, the index topped its 200 DMA at 99.91 in the prior session and has continued to rise to a multi-month high – levels not seen since late-May’25. Upside today facilitated by a hawkish leaning FOMC Minutes, and the BLS announcing that the October and November NFP reports will be till December 16th - notably leaving the Fed with only today's (Sept) NFP report. As it stands money markets currently price in a near-25% chance of a cut at the December meeting.
• EUR is a little weaker vs the Dollar, and as has been the case in recent weeks, a real lack of European specific data to help guide the Single-Currency in any direction. As such, much of the price action has been dictated by the Dollar side of the pair, and will ultimately await the NFP report today. Worth highlighting German Producer Prices data which printed more-or-less in-line, and ultimately had limited impact on the pair.
• USD/JPY has continued its ascent beyond the 157.00 mark in overnight trade, to top the 157.50 mark and make a fresh session high of 157.77. Worth noting that the pair has been subject to moves on both sides, with USD gaining amidst a hawkish repricing into the December meeting, whilst JPY has had domestic factors to digest. Overnight, Katayama was back on the wires where she once again attempted some verbal intervention, but to no effect – the pair continued to edge higher. As the European morning progressed, the pair has cooled from best levels, to currently trade at 157.20, but still very much at the upper end of Wednesday’s confines.
• A quiet session for the GBP this morning, with little fresh newsflow from a Budget perspective. Cable currently resides in a 1.3039 to 1.3076 range. The GBP has been subject to some selling pressure over the course of the past month, with losses totalling roughly 3% - this comes amidst Budget related jitters as Chancellor Reeves chops and changes her thoughts on the best approach. Moreover, the recent political uncertainty within the Labour party has added to the risk premium. Scheduled speakers today include Dhingra and Mann.
• Antipodeans trade mixed, with the Kiwi benefiting from the risk-tone whilst the Aussie is flat and essentially conforms to the subdued risk tone in China overnight, hit by their status in the AI race post-NVIDIA; moreover, base metals are generally softer across the board. For China specifically, no major move was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus. AUD/USD trades within a 0.6472 to 0.6491 range whilst NZD/USD trades in a 0.5596 to 0.5614 confine.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0905 vs exp. 7.1201 (Prev. 7.0872)
• Click for JPY Analysis
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FIXED INCOME

• JGBs are pressured overnight as Japanese yields continue to climb. JGBs themselves to a 134.56 trough, marking a new contract low. As such, the 10yr yield has risen to a 1.85% peak, taking us back to levels from early 2008. Action that has been driven by ongoing speculation and reporting around the upcoming stimulus. The latest reporting suggests an outlay of around JPY 17tln, far exceeding the JPY 13.9tln figure from the last package. Updates that have pressured JGBs given an expectation for it to necessitate greater issuance than the JPY 6.7tln figure outlined last time.
• USTs are under pressure, but only modestly so. Downside comes given the upbeat risk tone after NVIDIA numbers (see Equities). Additionally, the latest FOMC minutes showed a somewhat divided board but the undertones were hawkish. Potentially more pertinently, the BLS has confirmed the October payrolls release will not print in full (no unemployment rate) while the November series has been delayed until after the December meeting. Factors that are both hawkish/bearish. As the lack of data visibility gives the Fed theoretical scope to wait-and-see how the economy is faring before easing further; reminder, in October, Powell remarked, “when there is fog, you could slow down”. Given all this, USTs are in the red and down to a 112-18 base. Support comes into play at 112-17 from Tuesday before Monday’s 112-15+ WTD low.
• Bunds are softer, following the risk tone lower and posting downside of just under 20 ticks at most. Holding around a 128.48 low, if the move continues, we look to 128.25 from early October before the figure and then touted support at 127.88. Specifics for the bloc are somewhat light thus far. No move to ECB’s Makhlouf this morning, remarks that chimed with the market view that the ECB is at a terminal. Interestingly, Makhlouf said he does not think the new projections are likely to change; a remark in reference to the December forecast round which will include the first look at 2028, a period in focus and of particular note for those looking for further ECB easing. Supply from Spain passed without incident, whilst France was a little more mixed. Overall though, no move seen and OATs trade in-line with Bunds as we approach the tail-end of the week where attention returns back to French budget deliberations.
• Gilts are marginally outperforming after the underperformance on Wednesday. Underperformance that was seemingly due to concerns around the stability of Labour leadership amid mounting challenges to PM Starmer in the background. A challenge that would be a knock to the relatively, market-favourable pairing of Starmer and Reeves. This morning, Gilts are holding in the green by a handful of ticks. Initially opened lower acknowledging the bearish bias seen in peers but then swiftly pared to post gains of 15 ticks at best. Overall though, the benchmark has settled just above the unchanged mark in a 91.51-85 band. Scheduled speakers today include Dhingra and Mann.
• Spain sells EUR 4.921bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.00% 2033, 3.20% 2035, 4.00% 2054 Bono.
• France sells EUR 12bl vs exp. EUR 10-12bln 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2031, 1.50% 2031, 3.50% 2033 OAT.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks have traded subdued to start the European session despite the positive risk tone following NVIDIA earnings and further reporting about the proposed 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine. After grinding higher throughout Wednesday's US session, WTI and Brent pulled back to a trough of USD 59.27/bbl and USD 63.52/bbl respectively before extending to session highs of USD 59.80/bbl and USD 64.08/bbl as European traders stepped into the market. Despite the muted trade, benchmarks currently remain near session highs as the European session continues. Some further upside seen following comments via Russia's Kremlin which said that consultations with the US on peace are not taking place, but contacts are.
• Spot XAU sold off at the start of the APAC session and has continued to drift lower following the hawkish FOMC minutes and the bid seen across global equities as NVIDIA posted positive earnings. After a slight bid to a peak of USD 4110/oz at the start of APAC trade, XAU sold off to a trough of USD 4042/oz before consolidating in a USD 4042-4085/oz band. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal briefly extended to a new session low of USD 4039/oz before bouncing back into the earlier band.
• Base metals have traded rangebound to start the European session despite the positive global risk tone, outside of China, following NVIDIA earnings. 3M LME Copper started positive and bid higher to a peak of USD 10.83k/t at the start of APAC trade. However, the red metal fell lower and as the European session got underway, copper extended losses to a trough of USD 10.72k/t. Thus far, 3M LME Copper has managed to bounce off worst levels and is currently trading at USD 10.80k/t.
• Offshore Alliance Union applied to the Australian tribunal for permission to go on strike at Woodside’s (WDS AT) Pluto 2 LNG project.
• BP (BP/ LN) shut the Olympic Pipeline system after Washington leak.
• "As the busy period for Chinese manufacturing draws to a close, copper consumption has largely disappointed, with run rates at fabricators plumbing multiyear lows for the season," according to Bloomberg.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• Swiss Trade (Oct) 4319.0M CH (Prev. 4073.0M CH, Rev. 3990M CH); Gold exports 128.2/T, -11%: Watch exports: CHF 2.2bln, -4.4% Y/Y.
• German Producer Prices MM (Oct) 0.1% (Exp. 0.0%, Prev. -0.1%); YY (Oct) -1.8% vs. Exp. -1.9% (Prev. -1.7%)
• Norway's preliminary oil production (Oct) 1.82mln BPD (prev. 1.82mln BPD M/M); gas production 10.4bln cubic metres (prev. 8.5bln cubic metres M/M)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB's Makhlouf says he is comfortable with where policy is and needs further evidence to change his view; outcomes in line with projections, and new projections are unlikely to change. Should be very cautious about reacting to small deviations in projections. Risks around inflation outlook are balanced. Completely relaxed about undershooting next year, inflation will come back.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump is reportedly considering an executive order to pre-empt state AI laws, according to Reuters, citing a draft.
• US President Trump is considering signing an executive order as soon as Friday, according to The Verge.
• US President Trump posted that he signed the bill approving the release of the Epstein files, according to Truth Social.
• US President Trump is set to meet New York City Mayor Mamdani on Friday at the Oval Office, according to Truth Social.
• BoC Deputy Governor Vincent said Canada’s weak productivity problem has become more urgent and is a systemic issue requiring a coordinated, economy-wide approach; he said the country is stuck in a vicious cycle where weak productivity makes it harder to meet challenges, shocks to the economy have become more frequent, and Canada is too vulnerable to their impacts. He added that when assessing inflation, the Bank places particular importance on the relationship between rising labour costs and productivity, according to Reuters.
• UBS (UBSG SW) executive says US inflation is quite sticky, upcoming quarters is probably going to be a little bit challenging from a macro standpoint.
• BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 15th Nov) +1.5% (prev. +4.2%, Oct avg. +2.4%); notes that "as we approach the holiday seasons, spending per household on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023 and 2024 levels".

DELAYED DATA UPDATE

• The US November jobs report has been rescheduled for December 16th at 08:30 EST/13:30 GMT, with the October NFP to be released alongside November but without an unemployment rate. The BLS said the October 2025 Employment Situation Report has been cancelled, noting the Establishment Survey (NFP) data will be published with November’s release on December 16th, while Household Survey data (unemployment rate) could not be collected, via BLS.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russia said it is ready for dialogue with the United States on nuclear arms reduction, via Al Arabiya.
• US President Trump reportedly quietly approved a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine earlier this week, according to NBC.
• Russia's Kremlin says consultations or negotiations with the US on peace in Ukraine are not talking place but contacts are, adds that there is nothing to say on if President Putin has been briefed on the peace plan.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is a little firmer and trades in a USD 92k mark, whilst Ethereum dips and holds around USD 3k.
• BlackRock (BLK) is preparing to file for an "iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF", according to CoinDesk

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks surged across the board, buoyed by a strong performance in the tech sector following NVIDIA’s solid earnings and guidance, while CEO Huang dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, stating, “We see something different.”
• ASX 200 held near highs, supported by strength in tech and gold sectors.
• Nikkei 225 surged at the open and reclaimed 50,000+ levels as NVIDIA boosted tech stocks, though it pulled back from highs amid ongoing US-China tensions and fiscal concerns and as JGB yields continued climbing.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened firmer but lagged peers, with China struggling to capitalise on NVIDIA’s performance amid the US/China AI race. Some modest upside was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus with mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources. Meanwhile, the PBoC held LPRs steady as expected.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources.
• Japan's economic stimulus package is expected to be around JPY 21.3tln, according to NHK. The Japanese government is in the final stages of compiling its economic stimulus package worth JPY 21.3tln, according to a draft seen by Reuters; the package will total JPY 42.8tln, including private-sector investments.
• BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ is ready to step into market via increase in bond buying and emergency market operations when long-term yields make rapid moves; want to closely watch how FX volatility could affect prices; no comment on specific long-term rate level; should be set by markets reflecting fundamentals
• BoJ Board Member Koeda said the bank must normalise interest rates to avoid causing distortion in the future, adding that she believes underlying inflation is about 2%. She reinforced a data-dependent approach.
• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the government is watching market moves, including the bond market, closely and expressed concern about recent sharp, one-sided FX moves. He emphasised that the FX market needs to move stably, reflecting fundamentals, and that the government is watching FX with a high sense of urgency.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she won’t comment directly on JGB yield levels, which are determined by various factors, and reaffirmed with BoJ Governor Ueda yesterday that authorities will watch market moves with a strong sense of urgency.
• RBA's Hunter said monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the bank will not react to just one month of data; he also noted that the response in the housing market to rate cuts has been a little stronger than expected.
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Nov) 3.00% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 3.00%); 5Y 3.50% vs. Exp. 3.50% (Prev. 3.50%)
• BoJ Governor Ueda is to set to attend a lower house Finance Committee on Friday 21st November, via Reuters citing parliamentary sources.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry on Japanese Trade ties says if Japan insists on going down the wrong path then China will take the necessary measures. Says Japan's PM Takaichi remarks have a great impact on bilateral trade cooperation. Tokyo should create favourable environment for economic trade cooperation.
• BoJ Ueda to appear at a Financial Times event on the December 9th.