The biggest take away from the July real estate numbers is the 43% decline in sales volume. This comes in a full 35% below the 10 year average, which more dramatically demonstrates the current landscape.   

Equally as notable, new listings dropped 25% last month contributing substantially to the decrease in total inventory.    That number dropped for the first time in 6 months and speaks to the market ‘freeze’ that we’re in right now.   Both buyers and sellers are on the sidelines watching with bated breath. 

The result of these numbers is that the GVRD has entered a Balanced Market for the first time in almost 3 years, furthermore, detached homes are actually in a Buyers Market.   Rejoice?   Well - not so quick.   The recent interest hikes have pushed buying power down 25% when looked at from a monthly payment perspective.  Meaning prices would have to drop 25% from the peak to have an equal mortgage payment as it was before the rate hikes took place this year. 

So where are prices?   Well the HPI suggests a 4.7% decline from the March peak, whereas the Median and Average are closer to 11%.    Not nearly the 25% some buyers are hoping for.

Looking forward, we can expect August numbers to look quite similar, with prices dipping further.   It will take until September to see volumes pick up, though those will be dampened with the expected 0.5% interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada on September 7th.   

Rates will fluctuate, they always have.   So think of it this way, you marry your house, but you date your rate.  So make sure you love your home, and know that the only constant is change. 

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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Ryan Dash PREC

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www.thevancouverlife.com