Today’s guest is Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, which focuses on managing wealth with an emphasis on diversification, low fees, and tax efficiency. He’s also the author of The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions.

In today’s episode, Victor explores the Crystal Ball challenge, and how position sizing can be even more important than knowing tomorrow’s news headlines. He also addresses the role of disciplined asset allocation in investment strategy, and how foreign stocks might stack up against US equities going forward. Finally, Victor touches on the relationship between expected return, fair value, and mean reversion, and whether or not the markets have a fair value at all.

(0:00) Starts

(1:45) Introduction of Victor Haghani

(2:01) "Tomorrow's Newspaper Today" study

(11:46) The Merton share

(19:34) Elm Wealth's asset allocation strategy

(24:02) Behavioral and tax implications in investing

(39:19) Market timing models

(56:01) Consumer behavior and Roth IRA conversions

(1:02:05) Macro & mean reversion

(1:06:08) Victor Haghani’s most memorable investment

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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. 

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

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