Volatility Views

Volatility Viewpoint: Today we are joined by Jonathan Molchan, Portfolio Manager, Horizons ETF Management.

He discusses:

• What does Horizons ETF Management do?
• Horizons ETF products
• Why are there so few options-oriented ETFs?

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.

• VIX Cash - 16.50
• VVIX - 95
• VIX Options - ADV: 943k, VIX call/put: 2.6/1, Total 7.06m (5.11m Calls, 1.96m Puts)
• VXX - 42.32
• Earnings Volatility - AMZN, MSFT, INTC & GOOGL

Volatility Voicemail: Otpions question of the week.

We dig up many strange options positions at the Options Insider. Some seem credible while others are just head scratching. Which of the following open options positions do you think has the best chance of actually becoming a winner?

• 32% - 49K TSLA Jan 2019 50 P
• 32% - 197K VXX Jan 2019 10 P
• 25% - 65K GLD Jan 2019 200 C
• 11% - 146K SPY Dec 2019 150P

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Illir -So VXX Jan 10 puts are worth about .03. But VXX2 (or VXXB -not sure which) Jan 10 puts with exact same strike and days to expiration are worth 2.60 (a 1 lot just traded this morning)? Am I missing something?
• Comment from LLLC1 - I think the world just woke up to a new risk for vol products - "issuer panic risk." We all knew it was in the prospectus but now we've seen it materialize. I wonder how this will affect risk premiums in these products going forward.
• Question from Bortega - Why are there no options on VXAPL? Will there ever be options listed on this product?

Crystal Ball: Wild prognosticating found here.

Last week:

• Mark L. -16.35
• Mark S. - 14.25
• Mike Thompson - 15.85

This week:

• Mark L. - 16.05
• Mark S. - 14.25
• Jonathan Molchan: 15.25

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.

• VIX Cash is still hanging around in the teens.
• VVIX - 97, pretty much unchanged from last week.
• VIX Options - ADV: 1.05M, VIX call/put: 2.6/1, Total 6.29m (4.55m Calls, 1.74m Puts)
• How is the VIX July 10-75 strangle doing?
• VXX - 42.50
• OIV - 26.5, 2.5 points lower than last week.
• GVZ: 12.25, 1.25 points lower than last week.

Volatility Voicemail: Last week's volatility flash poll

Which product/segment do you think will experience the most Volatility over the coming trading week (through the close on Friday 2/20) SPY SPX VIX WTI Crude Gold Bitcoin BTC GLD USO

• 28% - S&P500: SPY, SPX. VIX
• 8% - Gold: GLD, Comex
• 28% - Crude Oil: WTI, USO
• 36% - Bitcoin: BTC

Options question of the week

VIX is back in the mid-teens. Are you buying this Volatility reprieve or is this merely calm before the storm? Quite simply - Where do you think VIX will end the week?

• Here: 16-18
• Higher: 18-20
• Even Higher: 20-25
• Lower: 14-16

Yet Another Options Flash Poll:

The proposed third exchange from @MIAXexchange will raise the total number of U.S. Options Exchanges to 16. Is this a good thing for the options market? Is it the straw that finally breaks the camel's back? Or are you too busy getting great fills to care?

• More Exchanges the Better
• Please Make It Stop
• Don't Care: I get filled
• Comment from Patrick Snoke -The more the merrier....my fills are.

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Scott Somer -Think this product will get enough liquidity? https://twitter.com/MIAXexchange/status/986334029338300416
• Question from Niddles - VIX settlement WTF?!?
• Question from Allen - What are the VIX mullet guys up to these days?

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. -17.17
• Mark S. - 15.00

This week:

• Mark L. -16.35
• Mark S. - 15
• Mike - 15.85

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.

• VIX Cash is back in the teens. Could it possibly reach 15 again?
• The market is tanking and rallying on both trade war and real war concerns.
• VVIX - 97
• VIX Options - ADV: 1.05M, VIX call/put: 2.2/1, Total 8.50m (5.85m Calls, 2.66m Puts)
• Paper sells May 20/22 call spread and buy May 17 puts 84,000 times.
• VXX - 47, almost unchanged from last week.
• Bitcoin futures up another 400 today.

Volatility Voicemail: Volatility Flash Poll

• Which product/segment do you think will experience the most Volatility over the coming trading week (through the close on Friday 2/20) SPY SPX VIX WTI Crude Gold Bitcoin BTC GLD USO
• S&P500: SPY, SPX. VIX
• Gold: GLD, Comex
• Crude Oil: WTI, USOF
• Bitcoin: BTC

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Loades - What will it take to get VIX back into the 15 handle? Comment from Jack -I'm with the questioner from last week. It's a huge pain to figure out which VIX future the weekly options are trading on. CBOE needs to hold more brokers feet to the fire to surface that stuff much more readily.
• Question from Alfred - Any updates on the VIX whistle blower?
• Comment from Chingis - Dudes, how about a weekly rundown of the hot VIX ETFs and ETNs?
• Question from Elandra -If you could have your ideal volatility product what would it be?
• Question from DKMan - Why no options on TVIX?

Crystal Ball: Wild prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. - 17.15
• Mark S. - 17.89
• Russell - 19.99

This week:

• Mark L. - 17.17
• Mark S. - 15.00

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective

• Happy 25th Birthday of VIX!
• This week CBOE is launching a month-long celebration of the 25th anniversary of the introduction of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX Index), which CBOE began publishing in April 1993.
• VIX cash is back in the teens.
• The market is tanking and rallying on trade war concerns.
• VVIX - 92

Russell's Weekly Rundown

• VIX Options: ADV - 1.05M, VIX call/put - 2.3/1, Total 8.06m (5.57m Calls, 2.49m Puts)

Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments

• Question from HFL9 -Would you rather see options on bitcoin futures or more futures listed on more crypto products first?
• Question from Lil Nicker - How do I tell which future a VIX options trades off of?
• Question from Barry -How do I tell which future my VIX options are priced from? I've been looking at some calls expiring on April 18th. Thanks for the shows.
• Question from Mark Clyde Brant -Will rising vol persist all year? VIX above 20, VXX above 40, half the time?

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. - 16.85
• Andrew - 17.76
• Euan - 19.50

This week:

• Mark L. - 17.15
• Mark S. - 17.89
• Russell - 19.99

Volatility Review: A look back at 2017 from a volatility perspective.

• VIX cash was back in double digits, briefly.

Kevin's Weekly Rundown:

• VIX Options: ADV - 672k, VIX call/put - 4, Total 9.78m (7.83m Calls, 1.94m Puts)
• Looking back on the 2017: The year without volatility.
• Which trades stood out to you in 2017?
• CBOE files to list 6 bitcoin ETFs after being first major exchange to trade cryptocurrency futures.

Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters

Last week:

• Mark L. - 9.65
• Andrew - 8.99
• Russell - 9.25

Where will VIX close at the end of 2018?

• Mark L. - 17.25
• Mark S. - 11.01
• Kevin - 14.04

Volatility Review Segment: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective

• The market in tanking on trade war concerns.
• Steel tariffs - officials are not loving it.
• VIX cash is back in the 20's this week.
• VVIX - 122; VIX Options: ADV - 1M, VIX call/put - 2.4/1, Total 7.26m (5.11m Calls, 2.15m Puts)
• How's the VIX July 10-75 strangle?

Volatility Voicemail: Listeners weigh in

• Question from BTBurg - What is the best way to trade these inverse VIX ETFs going forward? If I'm long XIV does it make sense to always have some VIX calls in my back pocket just in case? Doesn't that get expensive really quick? What about spy puts? Or should I just have puts on the inverse ETF in case the counterparties get cold feet?
• Question from JelloFan - VXX 1-yr 50% OTM puts plus VIX 3 month 15% OTM call verticals - 5 or 10 handles wide. Is that the secret sauce?
• Question from LNC -$SVXY calls suck now. What about selling the puts? Is there any juice in those or have they been drained as well by the bid redo last week?
• Question from Oswald -Are you part of the SVXY class action?

Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters

Last week

• Mark L. - 15.15
• Andrew - 14.75

This week

• Mark L. - 16.85
• Mark S. - 17.76
• Euan - 19.50

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective

• VIX cash back in the 15 handle
• VIX Options: ADV - 1M, VIX call/put: - 1.9/1, Total 13.9m (9.16m Calls, 4.76m Puts)
• Weird iron fly with crazy call kicker
• VXX - 38.89

Volatility Voicemail: Options Flash Poll

Which would you rather see first? Would you rather see Options finally listed on Bitcoin futures? Or would you prefer to have more Cryptocurrency futures (Litecoin, Ethereum, etc.) launched instead?

• Gimme Bitcoin Options
• More Crypto Futures
• Save Me from More Crypto

Last week's Volatility Flash Poll: VIX is off the board and SVXY is a pale shadow of its former self. So how are you getting your "short Vol" fix these days? Reply/DM with alternative suggestions.

• 20% - Short VIX Futures
• 22% - Long VIX Puts/Spreads
• 32% - Short VIX Call/Spreads
• 26% - Short SPX/SPY Volatility

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Big Blanc -I'm liking the VXX erosion play. Question though - Why does everyone talk puts on this trade? Why not selling calls or call spreads? Or maybe the combo - buying puts and selling calls or call spreads? Any backtests on that?
• Question from Jack K. -How is Mark's SVXY call vertical holding up?
• Comment from Brian Collamer -Hey Mark, You been talking off and on about seeing how the straddles performed vs actual moves around the earnings. Check the Analyze>Earnings tab in Thinkorswim sometime and let us know what you think!
• Comment from Brian Collamer:Also thought you might get a kick out of this.
• Question from Liam - Any cool takeaways from Mark's trip to RMC or FIA?
• Question from Leo -I have a bunch of VXX Jan 2019 puts. Should I be concerned about the issuer pulling an SVXY and suddenly rendering those puts irrelevant?

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. - 14.75
• Mark S. - 13.15
• Russell - 14

This week:

• Mark L. - 15.15
• Andrew - 14.75

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.

Cboe RMC:

• What are our favorite presentations?
• Interesting discussions/topics?
• Tariffs, Trump & VIX: It has been another volatile week.
• VIX Cash - 16.54
• VIX Futures - "Super meltyF and delicious

Russell's Weekly Rundown:

• VIX Options: ADV - 1M
• VIX call/put: 2/1
• Total 12.6m (8.45m Calls, 4.16m Puts)

Volatility Voicemail: Volatility Flash Poll

XIV is off the board and SVXY is a pale shadow of its former self. So how are you getting your "short vol" fix these days? Reply/DM with alternative suggestions.

• Short VIX Futures
• Long VIX Puts/Spreads
• Short VIX Calls/Spreads
• Short SPX/SPY Volatility

Listener questions and comments

• Question from Bixby -Do you think there will be an XIV 2 anytime soon?

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. - 17.75
• Mark S. - 28

Next week:

• Mark L. - 14.75
• Mark S. - 13.15
• Russell - 14.00

Volatility Review: A look back on the week from a volatility perspective

• A weird day in the markets, started with a massive selloff then ended unchanged.
• VIX cash - 22.5
• VIX futures - super backward again
• VIX options: ADV - 1.05M, VIX call/put: 2.1 - Total 12.0m (8.15m Calls, 3.87m Puts)
• Goldman says options-market activity suggests pain ahead in these sectors
• Nearly half of 2017's Cryptocurrency 'ICO' Projects Have Already Died

Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week

There's much debate about SVXY these days. Will it survive 2018? Is it poised for serious upside? We'll table those questions for now and instead ask all of you out there slinging SVXY. What is your weapon of choice?

• 63% - Naked Long SVXY
• 20% - Long SVXY Calls/Spreads
• 10% - Long SVXY Puts/Spreads
• 8% - Long SVXY w/ Put Hedge

Listener questions and comments:

• Comment from Boris Ilyevsky - Maybe their FCM partners didn't give them a choice. SVXY UVXY
• Question from J3dingle - Hi Mark, Given that both RexxShares and ProShares have re-jiggered their Volatility ETPs, what are the odds that VXX does too? Thanks, Joseph
• Question from Tills - Any chance the recent changeup with SVXY is just to appease regulators. Maybe it will switch back later in the year?
• Comment from Volatility Analytics - SPX 37% of days this year have had a 1% change in SPX. Last year we had 8 total days.
• Comment from Ragin1234 - (RE: SVXY) XIV SVXY uneducated customers are to blame for not doing their due diligence.
• Comment from LLLC1 - I think the world just woke up to a new risk for vol products - "issuer panic risk". We all knew it was in the prospectus but now we've seen it materialize. I wonder how this will affect risk premiums in these products going forward.
• Comment from John Schryber - Those stocks got sold to cover the inverse leveraged trade. It's all connected. Passive funds are...passive.

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. - 16.75
• Bill - 14
• Mark S - 15

This week:

• Mark L. - 17.75
• Mark S. - 28

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective

• VIX Cash - 18.75
• VIX Futures - The March future is very stubborn.
• VIX Options: ADV - 1.05M, VIX call/put: 2.3, Total 11.3m (7.76m Calls, 3.52m Puts)
• Goldman says options-market activity suggests pain ahead in these sectors
• Earnings: INTU, GDDY

Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week

People are spooked about this market. Hedges are flying left and right. So the question remains: How are you hedging your portfolio right now?

• Metals: Gold, Silver, etc.
• VIX Calls / Volatility
• Index Puts (SPY, etc.)
• Bitcoin / Crypto

Listener questions and comments:

• Comment from The Blacklist Blockchain Trader‏ - The uncorrelated one known as bitcoin
• Comment from Mark Clyde Brant - Palladium ITM calls!
• Comment from StockMarket Blue - Hedging strategies are actually unwinding in the bond market, causing turbulence in equities markets. Those "trading" in the stock market are flying blind without understanding the carry trade/currency hedging or oversupply of tender re system liquidity. Or the short-VIX unwind.
• Question from J3dingle - Hi Mark, VXX is delisting in January 2019 (with the new Barclay's ETN VXXB to take its place). What will happen to the Jan 2020 VXX options? Thanks, Joseph
• Question from Harryhood - @Options Are the $VXX puts premium dropping with the underlying because the VIX futures term structure is backward? Thanks Mark. Just heard "Mr Umbrage" discuss it on the last OB show. I'm the guy who sent you the Vermont umbrage license pic btw.

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. - 17.55
• Mark S. - 16.00
• Kevin - 19.00

This week:

• Mark L. - 16.75
• Mark S. - 15.00
• Bill - 14.00