Volatility Views

Volatility Review: VIX Cash is back in the teens. Are VIX Futures returning to contango? Volatility's awakening spurs a record long position in VIX Futures.

Kevin's Weekly Rundown:

• VIX Options: ADV - 983k, VIX call/put: 2.3, Total 10.6m (7.30m Calls, 3.26m Puts)
• The VIX Whale finally gets his payday
• The great inverse volatility ETP debate continues.

Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week

It's been a rocky week for the markets. People are understandably scared and confused. That raises the question: Which product are you most concerned about over the next 30 days? Aka - which product would you not touch with a 10-foot pole?

• VIX
• SVXY
• SPY
• Bitcoin: XBT, BTC, etc.

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Volbug: Mark and friends, now that SVXY has been reset or beaten, would another big VIX surge day have the same impact on it? Thanks.
• Comment from Pete Yarbro‏ - I feel like I have a better understanding of $VIX, $VX and the volatility ETFs than some very high profile stock market commentators, and all I do is listen to a podcast. @Options @OptionPit @OptionVol
• Comment from Dog Shogun - Vol Views rules
• Comment from Olivetrader2 - It's amazing what you can learn from podcasts. I am not sure I want to tell everybody though

Crystal Ball: Back to wild and reckless prognostication

Next week:

• Mark L. - 17.55
• Mark S. - 16
• Kevin - 19

Volatility Review: The great inverse volatility ETP debate continues. Are they "Frankenproducts" that shouldn't exist? Or are they performing as advertised, but the investing public simply doesn't understand them? Maybe there's a third camp? VIX Cash: Spiked to 46.34 on Tues - Quite possibly the craziest week in VIX history.

Kevin's Weekly Rundown

• VIX Options: ADV - 983k, VIX call/put: 2.8
• Commodity Volatility
• Bitcoin has been moving in lockstep with the market.

Volatility Voicemail: Volatility flash poll XIV is headed to the graveyard. But, as of this writing, $SVXY is still trading. Do you still have confidence in this product? Quite simply - do you think $SVXY will still be trading at the end of the year (12/31/18)?

• Yes
• No
• I'm hiding under the bed

Options question of the week:

VIX is moving like crazy today day. It's already blown past 23 and is threatening 35. So let's dial up our $VIX threshold for extra #ZombieApocalypse fun. You buying or selling these levels? Quite Simply: Where will $VIX close on Friday?

• Crazy Town: 30-35
• ZombieApocalypse: >35
• Crazy: 25-30
• Mildly Crazy:

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Chris T - The most I can lose buying SVXY is the price I pay, correct? So can I buy it around 10 and treat it like a lotto ticket call?
• Comment from Scott Somer - Another day another day with a very large sell off heading into the start of the Option Block and an up move in the S&P Futures during the "Trading Block" #OptionInsiderRadio #OptionBlock #GreasyMeatball #RockLobster
• Question from Lamina - $VIX cash is trading above the futures right now. How is that possible? Isn't the cash value derived from the futures?

Today, we feature special guest co-host, Don Dale, Managing Member at Equity Risk Control Group.

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.

VIX Cash:

• Hit nearly 15.50 this week
• Yet another crazy week

Russell's Weekly Rundown

• VIX Options: ADV - 777k, VIX call/put - 3.9, Total 13.7m (10.9m Calls, 2.78m Puts)
• Earnings Volatility: This season's theme is underperforming. FB, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL & AMZN

Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments

• Question from ILM78 - It seems like the volatility space is dominated by Canadian pension funds. Why is that the case? How's the volatility landscape for U.S. pension and hedge funds out there? Do U.S. pension funds trade a lot of VIX options or OTC?

Crystal Ball: Where will the VIX close on Friday?

Last week:

• Mark L. - 9.55
• Andrew - 13.25
• Kevin - 10.50
• Matt - 10.15
• Mike - 9.99

Next week:

• Mark L. - 13.50
• Mark S. - 14.00
• Russell - 15.67
• Don - 17.50

Volatility Views 292: Earnings Volatility, plus VIX Whale Returns

Today, we feature special guest co-host, Don Dale, Managing Member at Equity Risk Control Group.

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.

VIX Cash:

• Hit nearly 15.50 this week
• Yet another crazy week

Russell's Weekly Rundown

• VIX Options: ADV - 777k, VIX call/put - 3.9, Total 13.7m (10.9m Calls, 2.78m Puts)
• Earnings Volatility: This season's theme is underperforming. FB, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL & AMZN

Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments

• Question from ILM78 - It seems like the volatility space is dominated by Canadian pension funds. Why is that the case? How's the volatility landscape for U.S. pension and hedge funds out there? Do U.S. pension funds trade a lot of VIX options or OTC?

Crystal Ball: Where will the VIX close on Friday?

Last week:

• Mark L. - 9.55
• Andrew - 13.25
• Kevin - 10.50
• Matt - 10.15
• Mike - 9.99

Next week:

• Mark L. - 13.50
• Mark S. - 14.00
• Russell - 15.67
• Don - 17.50

On today's show, a rowdy cohort of crazies, including:

• Mark Sebastian, Option Pit
• Matt Thompson, Typhon Capital
• Mike Thompson, Typhon Capital
• Kevin Davitt, CBOE

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective

• VIX Cash is firmly back in the double digits.

Kevin's Weekly Rundown

• VIX Options: ADV - 744k, VIX call/put - 4.1, Total 12.0m (9.65m Calls, 2.34m Puts)
• Earnings Volatility: Netflix, Intel and Starbucks.

Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week

Since we're down at #InsideETFs this week we thought we'd make our #Options #QOTW about #ETFOPTIONS. Quite simply - what is your favorite ETF/ETP #option to trade?

• $SPY
• $GLD
• $VXX
• Other (reply w/answer)

Listener Questions and Comments:

• Question from Cat65 - Are there other vol futures out there aside from VIX?
• Question from Charlie C - Quick Q for the show - What's the weirdest thing you've seen in the options market?

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Last week:

• Russell: 11.99
• Matt: 11.5
• Mark S.: 10
• Mark L. 10.55

This week:

• Mike: 9.99
• Matt : 10.15
• Mark S.: 13.25
• Mark L.: 9.55
• Kevin: 10.5

Volatility Review: Government shutdown moves the market going into the weekend. VIX cash is firmly back in the double digits.

Russell's Weekly Rundown:

• ADV - 746k, VIX call/put - 4.6, Total 10.1m (8.29m Calls, 1.82m Puts
• Looking back on the VIX whale from last Wednesday.
• Earnings volatility this week.
• January has been a rough month for Bitcoin.

Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week.

Bitcoin futures are currently trading around $11,500. If options existed, how would you trade them? Assuming one-month to expiration would you...?

• Buy 5% OTM Call
• Buy 5% OTM Put
• Sell 5% OTM Covered Call
• Just Short the Future

Listener questions and comments:

• Comment by TradingProverbs - "More money has been lost trying to anticipate and protect from corrections than actually in them." - Peter Lynch

Crystal Ball: Government shutdown related prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. - 9.55
• Andrew - 9.95
• Kevin - 9.75

This week:

• Mark L. - 10.55
• Mark S. - 10.00
• Russell - 11.99
• Matt - 11.50

Volatility Review: It's been a good year for VIX at CBOE - No Vol = No problem. Return of the VIX Whale - 2.87M on Wednesday. We finally have the COT Reports for Bitcoin.

Kevin's Weekly Rundown:

VIX Options: ADV - 668k

• VIX call/put - 4, Total 12.9m (10.3m Calls, 2.52m Puts)
• Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week.

Another ";easy"; one to help kick off the New Year. Quite simply - which name are you looking forward to trading Options on during the upcoming earnings season? Your fav not here? Choose ";Other"; and send it in. Best will be shared on the Option Block.

• Apple (AAPL)
• Tesla (TSLA)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Other

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from RDuffGordon - My wife reads all of the ";intel"; letters, and told me tonight that CEO's are resigning in droves. The best way to see if this is valid or probable would be a sudden burst of buying of insider puts. Is there such a reporting requirement for, Insiders or recent EX - higher ups which i would expect the sec to require - but all we hear is insider stock ratios etc., but the long put, after 23 years of on floor trading is the ";no brainer"; thing to buy - if one is fairly certain the stock chosen was going to go down, because the 98% winners who risk the entire economy when they sell short puts with abandon need to buy them back one day at a volatility no one could believe ahead of time, as in right now. The insider who quits AAPL may buy puts on Amazon so as to go under the radar. Major sells perhaps on other stocks where the insider who quit quickly knows of another big player(s) who HAS to quit. Finally, what about insiders in or recently of a company buys calls in the VIX? Does that get reported? How long after resigning from a company have to report? I suppose as long as he is above 5 percent of the company he resigned from? THX much- I should know all of this- and that it is perhaps conspiratorial.

Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters

Last week:

• Mark L. - 9.25
• Mark S. - 9.57
• Russell - 9.79

This week:

• Mark L. - 9.55
• Andrew - 9.95
• Kevin - 9.75

Volatility Review: Looking back on the top five Volatility Views episodes of 2017. VIX Cash is back in the single digits again.

Russell's Weekly Rundown

• VIX Options: ADV - 668k, VIX call/put - 3.9, Total 10.8m (8.52m Calls, 2.26m Puts)
• Commodities: Volatility is low but ambiguity is sky high.
• CBOE files to list 6 bitcoin ETFs after being first major exchange to trade cryptocurrency futures.
• Happy 9th Birthday to Bitcoin

Volatility Voicemail: Listeners have their say

2017 was the "Year that Volatility Died". So our 1st #QOTW for 2018 is a puzzler. Quite simply - where do you think $VIX will close at the end of the year?

• 14% - Between 7.5-9.99
• 35% - Between 10- 12.49
• 14% - Between 12.50 -14.99
• 37% - Above 15

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication.

Last year's 2017 VIX predictions:

• Mark L. - Avg 15.50, low 10, high 34.5
• Russell - Avg 17.50, low 12.50, high 37
• Mark S. - Avg 15, low 10.50, high 24

Next year VIX close at end of 2018:

• Mark L. - 17.25
• Mark S. - 11.01
• Kevin - 14.04

Next week:

• Mark L. - 9.25
• Mark S. - 9.57
• Russell - 9.79

Volatility Review: A look back at 2017 from a volatility perspective.

• VIX cash was back in double digits, briefly.

Kevin's Weekly Rundown:

• VIX Options: ADV - 672k, VIX call/put - 4, Total 9.78m (7.83m Calls, 1.94m Puts)
• Looking back on the 2017: The year without volatility.
• Which trades stood out to you in 2017?
• CBOE files to list 6 bitcoin ETFs after being first major exchange to trade cryptocurrency futures.

Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters

Last week:

• Mark L. - 9.65
• Andrew - 8.99
• Russell - 9.25

Where will VIX close at the end of 2018?

• Mark L. - 17.25
• Mark S. - 11.01
• Kevin - 14.04

Volatility Review: Looking back on 2017, the year without volatility. VIX has been under 10 for about 45 days this year, and under 12 for a little over 200 days.

The numbers:

• VIX Cash - 9.56
• VVIX - 92
• CBOE Skew Index - 132.5

Russell's Weekly Rundown:

• VIX Options: ADV - 721k
• VIX call/put: - 4, Total 9.38m (7.51m Calls, 1.88m Puts)
• Commodities: Volatility is low but ambiguity is sky high.

Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week.

Now it's a party! Bitcoin futures are live on both CME Group & CBOE. But everyone's asking us the $1M question - "When will we get Bitcoin Options?" So we thought we'd ask you: When will we be able to trade options on these futures?

• Q1 2018
• Q2 2018
• Q3 2018
• Q4 2018

Listener questions and comments:

• Comment from FContangotrader - You should call #optionblockchain... forget Bitcoin, if you short $vxx since 2011 now you own an island at the Bahamas, if you own gamma and hedge with vol products, now you own 2 islands.
• Question from Javier - Is there a Bitcoin VIX from the CBOE?
• Question from JediGuy - What were your favorite volatility events and trades from 2017?
• Question from Taj Penaso - Hi, will there be options for bitcoin once the futures are traded?? Or just the futures until there are tradeable ETFs available? Thanks

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Last week:

• Mark S. - 10
• Russell - 9.74
• Bill - 8.99

This week:

• Mark L. - 9.65
• Andrew - 8.99
• Russell - 9.25

Volatility Review: Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss discuss Bitcoin and Bitcoin Futures at FIA Asia. CBOE Benchmark Index discussion. CBOE Bitcoin futures surge 8% Friday, head for winning first week

The numbers:

• VIX Cash - 9.79
• VVIX - 92.77
• CBOE Skew Index – 131

Russell's Weekly Rundown

• VIX Options: ADV - 737k, VIX call/put - 3.6, Total 13.6m (10.7m Calls, 2.99m Puts)

Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments

• Question from Alvanot - Can you trade the VIX index itself? Not the futures.
• Question from The Financial Grynch‏ - Do you REALLY reckon long options is profitable?

Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Last week:

• Mark L. - 9.75
• Mark S. - 9.15
• Ghost of Russell - 35
• Bill - 10

This week:

• Mark S. - 10
• Russell - 9.74
• Bill - 8.99