It really was a brutal week on Wall Street, led by the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which is down about 5-1/2% on the week; 3% of that alone came today, now down about 17% from its high
Not officially in a bear market yet, but getting there
The vast majority of NASDAQ stocks are in bear markets, in fact, many of those stocks are down 40 or 50% or more - a number of those stocks down 40 or 50% today alone
The Russell 2000 is already in a bear market; it's down 24%
Dow Transports also down 25%, and transports were actually up this week
The S&P and the Dow are only down about 12% - in correction but not quite a bear market, but remember, all bear markets begin as corrections, and I think this is just the early stage of a bear market
You can contrast that with what's going on with gold; gold was up 5% on the week. It added $18 today alone to close above 1170, in fact the price of gold has risen by $120/ounce since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December
The dollar also had a bad week, despite rising somewhat today on the jobs numbers, the dollar index had its worst weekly decline since 2009
So now, the opposite of what everybody expected has happened
Everybody thought the stock market would go up, because the rate hike was proof that the economy was stronger; instead the stock market has tanked, in fact the beginning of January was Wall Street's worst start to the year in history
In contrast, the expectation was that rising interest rates would help the dollar; instead the dollar has actually declined
Higher interest rates were expected to be bearish for gold; instead it was the catalyst for a huge rally in the price of gold
The weaker than expected jobs report was assumed to be the reason for today's stock market carnage, because we only created 151,000 non-farm payroll jobs and the Street was looking for 188,000 jobs
The reality is not that the report was weak, it is that it was not weak enough
The only thing that could have saved this market would have been a horrible jobs report - a jobs report so bad that an interest rate hike would be clearly off the table
Instead, this jobs report could indicate that the Fed is more likely to raise rates as a result of the numbers
That is why the market went down
No one wants to admit that the only thing holding up this market is the Fed, so they pretend that the market is disappointed by the weakness of the report
Jobs have nothing to do with it - this market has always been about one thing - the Fed and cheap money
Now it hangs on weather the Fed will raise rates again
I believe the next thing the Fed is going to do is to cut interest rates
I think they might even go negative and they going to launch QE4
The markets have not figured this out yet
Even the Atlanta Fed, whose first estimate of Q1 GDP at just 1.2% (I think this is an over-estimation; I think the Q4 .7% will be downwardly revised) saw this apparently strong jobs report they increased their Q1 GDP estimate by a full percentage point to 2.2%
If the Atlanta Fed thought the jobs report was so strong, why are the reporters assigning blame to the jobs report for the sell-off
If you look beneath the headline number of the miss, on the number of non-farm payrolls, you'll find out what the markets were so worried about:
1) The official unemployment rate moved down to 4.9% - that's the first time we've had a 4 handle on the unemployment rate since Obama has been President
In fact, he did not waste much time calling a press conference proclaiming the success of his administration and declaring that the U.S. economy is the strongest in the world; quite ironic because I thin we are already in recession
The President also took credit for the fact that average hourly earnings rose
This was the nail in the stock market's coffin today: Wages were expected to rise by .3% and instead they rose by .5% - Two tenths was enough to clobber the stock market