Weighing The Risks by Orion Advisor Technology

October 19, 2022 Matthew Bartolini of SPDR Americas Research - Risks and Market Scenarios From the 2022 Midterm Elections

Welcome to the premiere episode of Weighing The Risk. This podcast was created to help financial advisors and investors reach long-term financial goals. Each month, we examine the top-of-mind economic or market topics, and the probability and possibility of various scenarios that could impact investment portfolios.

In this episode, Rusty talks with Matthew Bartolini, Managing Director and Head of SPDR Americas Research. In his role, Matthew is responsible for all product research and analysis of both SPDR ETFs and SSGA Funds. His team develops proprietary research, strategies, and thought leadership for the firm's ETF and mutual fund product suite. Matthew aims to help clients better understand the market landscape and achieve their desired investment outcome through customized solutions and proprietary research.

Matthew talks with Rusty about the current electoral map, how the market typically behaves around midterm elections, and how he sees the market in different scenarios.

Key Takeaways

[01:08] - Welcome to Weighing The Risk.

[03:06] - How Matthew came to work at SPDR Research.

[04:33] - How Matthew defines risk.

[05:40] - What the current electoral map looks like.

[12:16] - How the market typically behaves around midterm elections.

[17:47] - How Republicans' victory will affect the economy and the market.

[19:52] - What the market and economy will look like if the Democrats win.

[23:19] - Matthew's take on different market scenarios.

[32:19] - Other risks investors should take into account.

[33:49] - The impact of de-globalization on relative performance in the future.

[35:11] - The current state of inflation.

Quotes

[01:22] - "As financial advisors and investors, we have to recognize what we can control and what we cannot. As for what we can control, we can analyze portfolio risk, diversify portfolios and, to a large extent, manage expectations, and help with each of these. That's why we consider various market scenarios." ~ Rusty Vanneman

[13:42] - "Interestingly, the one year following the midterm election has never been a negative return period for the S&P 500, dating back to 1939. In 80 years, we've never had negative runs in that one year following. Markets generally behave well past the midterm elections." ~ Matthew Bartolini

[22:30] - "If we have a split congress, beware of political theatrics around the debt ceiling debate and government shutdowns. And historically, the headlines are worse than the actual impact. That creates near-term volatility." ~ Matthew Bartolini

Links

Matthew Bartolini on LinkedIn

SSGA

Raj Udeshi

Hidden Levers

Shipping Up To Boston by Dropkick Murphys

Voodoo Chile Blues by Jimi Hendrix

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Rusty Vanneman

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Disclosure

Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

1884-OPS-10/11/2022