Checkmate is an on-chain analyst and founder of Checkonchain, Joe Carlasare is a Commercial Litigator and macro commentator & Matthew Pines is the Executive Director at the Bitcoin Policy Institute.

They explain why the four-year cycle may finally be dead, how ETFs and institutional flows are reshaping Bitcoin’s volatility, and why 95K has become a critical “Hodler’s Wall.” We get into gold’s resurgence and how central bank accumulation signals a structural shift in global finance, and how fiscal dominance is eroding the Fed’s independence. The roundtable also dives into the politics of debt, the prospect of yield curve control, and the AI-driven capex boom that could both fuel growth and deepen inequality.

In this episode:

- The end of the four-year cycle

- ETFs, flows, and the new volatility profile of Bitcoin

- The Federal Reserve & fiscal dominance

- AI & the future of productivity

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Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny

Checkmate: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_

Joe Carlasare: https://x.com/JoeCarlasare

Matthew Pines: https://x.com/matthew_pines

Samson Mow is the CEO of JAN3 and former CSO at Blockstream. In this episode, we get into the growing rift between Bitcoin Core and Knots, why mistrust in Core development is at an all-time high, and what it means for the future of the network.

We discuss the battle over spam and data storage on-chain, whether Bitcoin should ossify or adapt, and how governance really works in Bitcoin. Samson breaks down why the UTXO set could become a systemic risk, how mempool fragmentation is reshaping the network, and why multiple implementations of Bitcoin may be both a blessing and a curse.

In this episode:

- The origins of the Core vs. Knots debate

- Spam, filters, and the slippery slope of arbitrary data on Bitcoin

- UTXO bloat, miner incentives, and decentralization risks

- How nation-state adoption may trigger the suddenly moment for Bitcoin

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Samson Mow: https://x.com/Excellion

Brandon Quittem is a the Author of The Mycelium of Money and VP at Swan. In this episode, we discuss the fourth turning, how history’s generational cycles shape today’s political chaos, and why Bitcoin could be the institution that emerges from the wreckage of a failing system.

We explore the death of monoculture, the erosion of trust in institutions, and whether the coming crisis ends in war, civil unrest, or a re-founding of the American republic. Brandon also breaks down how generational archetypes repeat across history, why social cohesion feels impossible in the algorithmic age, and how Bitcoiners can help reshape the world.

In this episode:

- The Fourth Turning framework and why 2008 was the catalyst

- Loss of faith in institutions and the rise of political nihilism

- Monoculture, social fragmentation, and the crisis of identity

- Why every Fourth Turning ends in war

- How Bitcoin could serve as the foundation for the next era

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Brandon Quittem: https://x.com/bquittem

Lawrence Lepard is an Investment Manager and Author of The Big Print. In this episode, he explains why the dollar system is “doomed,” how inflation is as much psychological as monetary, and why the Fed and Treasury are now trapped in a cycle of money printing and yield curve control. We explore why America may already be in a “fourth turning,” how gold’s surge signals a repricing of trust, and why Bitcoin is the ultimate escape hatch in a world of policy failure and political decay.

Lepard also explains how U.S. intelligence agencies are using it to study hyperinflation as an existential risk, and why he’s convinced Bitcoin will hit $1 million.

In this episode:

- The Fed and the trap of yield curve control

- The risk of inflation

- Gold’s surge, Bitcoin’s inevitability, and the repricing of trust

- Why America may be entering a “fourth turning”

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Lawrence Lepard: https://x.com/lawrencelepard

The Fed's Third Mandate (TFTC Article): https://www.tftc.io/the-feds-third-mandate-the-looming-credit-crisis-and-bitcoin/

Pete Rizzo breaks down how Bitcoin’s culture and institutions are being reshaped in 2025. From Trump’s executive orders and the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve to the rise of treasury companies and institutional adoption, we explore why this cycle feels different — and why that may not be entirely bullish for freedom money.

We get into the shifting monocultures of Bitcoin, from grassroots self-custody to Saylor's vision. Rizzo explains why treasury companies must prove they can outperform Bitcoin itself and the risks if hundreds of them collapse in the next bear market.

In this episode:

- How institutions are changing Bitcoin adoption

- Trump, strategic reserves & Bitcoin policy

- The cultural shift in Bitcoin

- Why treasury companies may struggle to survive

- The next phase of Bitcoin culture

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Pete Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_

Freddie New unpacks why the next wave of Bitcoin treasury companies could change the game, and why his new venture, B Hodl, is designed to be more than just another balance sheet play. From Lightning Network infrastructure and UK policy battles to raising fresh capital without leverage, Freddie explains how Bitcoin-only businesses can scale sustainably while strengthening the network itself.

We dig into why so many treasury companies risk collapse in a bear market, how B Hodl is structured to avoid forced selling, and why the UK urgently needs a strong Bitcoin voice in both finance and politics. Freddie also explores why institutions will eventually be forced to hold Bitcoin, how mNAV multiples shape valuations, and why every treasury company needs to prove it’s building real infrastructure, not just stacking sats.

In this episode:

- Why B Hodl is more than a Bitcoin treasury company

- How Lightning node operations create real Bitcoin-denominated revenue

- Why avoiding leverage is key to long-term survival

- Why every company will one day hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet

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Freddie New: Freddie New: https://x.com/freddienew

James Lavish unpacks why the Federal Reserve, runaway debt, and global liquidity cycles are setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next explosive move. From stagflation and deficits to institutional rebalancing and treasury companies, James explains why Bitcoin is unlike any asset the Fed can control.

We dig into why policymakers are trapped between inflation and recession, how trillions in debt force them to keep the Ponzi going, and why every rate cut is bullish for Bitcoin. James also explores the role of Black Swan events, how institutions dampen volatility while driving adoption, and why neutral, permissionless money is the only escape from today’s broken system.

In this episode:

- Are we heading for stagflation?

- How $324T in global debt guarantees more money printing

- The rise of treasury companies and institutional rebalancing

- Why global liquidity is the key signal for Bitcoin’s price

- What a Fed cornered by inflation means for the future of money

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James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavish

Eric Yakes lays out why Bitcoin is on track for $10 million, and how cultural shifts, institutional adoption, and political realities are accelerating the path. From revolutions and mass movements to balance sheets and BlackRock ETFs, Eric explains why Bitcoin is unlike any other asset in financial history.

We get into why qualitative forces - belief, culture, and narrative - drive Bitcoin’s price as much as math, how the rise of treasury companies and governments adopting Bitcoin could fundamentally change markets, and why neutral, permissionless money is the escape valve from today’s credit-driven system. Eric also explores what a $10M Bitcoin world might look like: from time preference shifts and new architecture to political legitimacy and global strategic reserves.

In this episode:

- Why Eric believes Bitcoin can reach $10M within a decade

- How revolutions explain Bitcoin’s cultural momentum

- The role of ETFs, treasury companies, and government reserves

- Why narratives, not fundamentals, move markets

- How neutral money could restructure capitalism and society

- What a $10M Bitcoin world means for time preference, politics, and the future

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Eric Yakes: https://x.com/ericyakes

John Scott-Railton dives into the dark world of spyware, surveillance, and state power — and what it means for our freedoms in the digital age. From uncovering Pegasus spyware in 2016 to exposing private intelligence firms like Black Cube, John explains how governments, corporations, and authoritarian regimes exploit our phones and data to control narratives and suppress dissent.

We discuss how spyware has evolved from phishing texts to zero-click exploits, the chilling stories of journalists and dissidents targeted, and why even democracies are sliding into mass surveillance under the guise of “safety.” John also warns about the next frontier: AI supercharging surveillance, corporate data brokers selling your life by the byte, and if Bitcoin faces the same creeping panopticon risks if incentives aren’t carefully guarded.

In this episode:

- The rise of mercenary spyware like Pegasus

- How the state abuses surveillance tech

- The role of corporate surveillance and data brokers

- AI’s potential to supercharge surveillance

- If Bitcoin could face the same panopticon dynamics

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Vijay Selvam digs into the first principles of Bitcoin, why it matters, how it works, and what makes it the greatest tool against authoritarian states. From his background on Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis to writing Principles of Bitcoin, Vijay explains why digital scarcity is a paradigm-shifting invention and why separating money from the state may be one of the most important moments in human history.

We explore why narratives like “digital gold” are both useful and limiting, how Bitcoin embodies Enlightenment values of decentralization, and why its real political and philosophical implications go far beyond finance. Vijay also shares why the greatest threats to Bitcoin come from within, and how Bitcoin serves as both a mirror and a peaceful revolution for humanity.

In this episode:

- The 2008 financial crisis and discovering Bitcoin

- Digital scarcity and the core innovation of Bitcoin

- Separation of money and state vs. church and state

- Narratives: digital gold, freedom money, and beyond

- Bitcoin’s political and philosophical ramifications

- Why Bitcoin is a mirror that forces self-reflection

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Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny

Vijay Selvam: https://x.com/VijaySelvamXO