Did economic sentiment decide the 2024 presidential election? For many Americans, the economy was top of mind when deciding who to vote for in this past election. With inflationary worries, high home prices and mortgage rates, and general unaffordability, many Americans chose President-Elect Trump to turn the economy around. So, what does the housing market look like under Trump’s economy? And how will proposed changes (like tariffs) influence home prices?

Matthew Walsh from Moody’s Analytics is on to give us some context about consumer sentiment, future home prices and mortgage rates, and what tariffs mean for the average American. Matthew brings up a good point: Even with inflation steadily declining, most Americans are still experiencing sticker shock due to our constant comparison of pre-pandemic pricing. Even with the economy doing well, it’s easy to understand why Americans feel in a worse spot than five years ago.

So, with inflation cooling, will housing affordability catch up? A big part of affordability is mortgage rates, and with the Fed cutting rates, are we on the cusp of a return to (somewhat) normalcy? Matthew shares the shocking statistic on what mortgage rates would have to be for us to reach 2019 levels of affordability. Finally, we’re talking about tariffs and how higher prices for homebuilding could translate to your final home price.

In This Episode We Cover

Consumer sentiment and how American finances influenced the 2024 presidential election 

How low mortgage rates would have to go for us to get back to 2019 affordability levels 

What Trump’s tariff proposal means for homebuilders and home prices

Moody’s 2025 and 2026 home price appreciation forecast

Why mortgage rates aren’t falling even after the Fed lowered their federal funds rate

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

 Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Opinion: There Could Be Financial Risks Under a Trump Presidency—Here’s How to Hedge Against Them

Moody’s Analytics 

Grab Dave’s New Book, “Start with Strategy”

Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(01:18) Consumers Are Anxious

(04:02) The Inflation "Disconnect"

(11:50) Will Homes Ever Be Affordable Again? 

(14:40) Home Prices Could Stagnate

(22:28) The Tariff Effect

(29:14) Still Undersupplied in 2025?

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-272 

Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices