The Gray Area with Sean Illing

What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections


Listen Later

This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and Senate really is, whether there's a purpose to predicting election outcomes, which campaign reporters he reads, and whether Trump is the favorite for 2020. Silver and I also share the experience of building journalism outlets trying to do things a bit differently over the past five years, so we discuss what he’s learned along the way, what he wishes he knew at the beginning, and how he hires. Silver brings unusual clarity and rigor to the topics he focuses on, and right now, given the speed and intensity of the elections news cycle, a bit of rigor is a welcome thing. Enjoy! Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Bad Blood by John Carreyrou Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

The Gray Area with Sean IllingBy Vox

  • 4.5
  • 4.5
  • 4.5
  • 4.5
  • 4.5

4.5

10,511 ratings


More shows like The Gray Area with Sean Illing

View all
On the Media by WNYC Studios

On the Media

9,163 Listeners

Fresh Air by NPR

Fresh Air

38,189 Listeners

The Political Scene | The New Yorker by WNYC Studios and The New Yorker

The Political Scene | The New Yorker

3,954 Listeners

Gastropod by Cynthia Graber and Nicola Twilley

Gastropod

3,618 Listeners

Switched on Pop by Vulture

Switched on Pop

2,628 Listeners

Decoder with Nilay Patel by The Verge

Decoder with Nilay Patel

3,144 Listeners

Explain It to Me by Vox

Explain It to Me

7,838 Listeners

The New Yorker Radio Hour by WNYC Studios and The New Yorker

The New Yorker Radio Hour

6,670 Listeners

Pivot by New York Magazine

Pivot

9,202 Listeners

Channels with Peter Kafka by Vox Media Podcast Network

Channels with Peter Kafka

552 Listeners

The Daily by The New York Times

The Daily

111,917 Listeners

Good One: A Podcast About Jokes by Vulture

Good One: A Podcast About Jokes

1,457 Listeners

Radio Atlantic by The Atlantic

Radio Atlantic

2,321 Listeners

Today, Explained by Vox

Today, Explained

10,141 Listeners

The Cut by Vox Media Podcast Network

The Cut

1,585 Listeners

Interesting Times with Ross Douthat by New York Times Opinion

Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

6,751 Listeners

Future Perfect by Vox

Future Perfect

584 Listeners

Throughline by NPR

Throughline

16,043 Listeners

Land of the Giants by Vulture

Land of the Giants

2,154 Listeners

Unlocking Us with Brené Brown by Vox Media Podcast Network

Unlocking Us with Brené Brown

23,605 Listeners

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway by Vox Media Podcast Network

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

5,414 Listeners

A Touch More with Sue Bird & Megan Rapinoe by Vox Media Podcast Network

A Touch More with Sue Bird & Megan Rapinoe

661 Listeners

Hard Fork by The New York Times

Hard Fork

5,448 Listeners

Celebrity Memoir Book Club by Vox Media Podcast Network

Celebrity Memoir Book Club

6,309 Listeners

The Ezra Klein Show by New York Times Opinion

The Ezra Klein Show

15,321 Listeners

Unexplainable by Vox

Unexplainable

2,212 Listeners

Waveform: The MKBHD Podcast by Vox Media Podcast Network

Waveform: The MKBHD Podcast

5,926 Listeners

The Interview by The New York Times

The Interview

1,466 Listeners

Not Just Football with Cam Heyward by Cam Heyward

Not Just Football with Cam Heyward

140 Listeners

Networth and Chill with Your Rich BFF by Vivian Tu

Networth and Chill with Your Rich BFF

1,712 Listeners

Served with Andy Roddick by Served with Andy Roddick

Served with Andy Roddick

995 Listeners

Prof G Markets by Vox Media Podcast Network

Prof G Markets

1,127 Listeners

The Opinions by The New York Times Opinion

The Opinions

455 Listeners