Episode Notes

The largest public hotel companies will report their financial performance for the first quarter in the next several weeks. So what themes will investment bank analysts be looking for? Senior Hospitality Editor Sean O’Neill explains in this week’s Early-Check In column.

O’Neill writes one possibility is an equilibrium where supply and demand are just right, meaning hotel companies are nicely profitable. O’Neill adds that investment bank analysts seem to believe that the hotel industry will dodge a rescission or it will be so shallow that pent-up demand for travel will compensate for it. 

O’Neill also notes a bear market could emerge if businesses or consumers curtail travel spending due to financial concerns. He adds the recent banking crisis in the U.S. might reduce bank lending to businesses, which could cool business and leisure travel demand. 

Next, the short-term rental market is continuing to grow in 2023, with demand outpacing supply, writes Short-Term Rental Reporter Srividya Kalyanaraman.

Average daily rates globally jumped a little more than 3 percent in the first quarter of 2023 from last year, according to vacation rental data company Key Data. In addition, occupancy rates climbed 17 percent worldwide from the same period in 2022. Meanwhile, Kalyanaraman notes that supply, which is measured by the number of available listings, has shrunk. She added that 22 percent of vacation rentals are listed across multiple top online travel agencies.

Finally, Mexico is building six hotels alongside the Tren Maya, a controversial railway that aims to provide access to the Yucatan Peninsula’s most popular tourist attractions. But travel executives are uncertain if the railway will boost tourism, reports Contributor Paula Krizanovic.

Krizanovic writes that although Mexican authorities have said the project should be completed by December, some figures in the country’s tourism industry consider that timeframe unlikely. However, Paulina Roura, risk consulting partner of consulting firm BDO Mexico, said the Tren Maya would help spark more investment in the Yucatan’s tourism infrastructure. Hyatt has already announced plans to open 5,000 more rooms in two destinations along Mexico’s Caribbean coast.