Grain Markets and Other Stuff

What Will USDA Lie About This Month?? (Report Friday)


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0:00 Intro + USDA Preview
2:44 MORE Wheat Sales to China
5:30 Brazil is Still Dry
6:37 Panama Canal Remains Restrictive
8:06 Crude Oil Prices Decline
9:54 Interest Rates Drop
11:24 Cattle Rebound

πŸ“ˆπŸŒΎ Market Insights: USDA Reports, SRW Wheat Sales, Brazil Weather, Panama Canal Woes, and Economic Trends 🌐🚒

πŸ“Š Upcoming USDA Reports:
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday. The trade anticipates minimal changes to US balance sheets, with expectations for adjustments in South America's production estimates, particularly for Brazilian corn and soybean crops.

🌾 SRW Wheat Flash Sale to China:
USDA reports another flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of US soft red winter wheat to China for delivery in the current marketing year. This marks the second flash sale of SRW wheat to China this week, totaling 638,000 metric tons (23 million bushels). SRW and HRW futures have seen six consecutive sessions of higher closes.

πŸ‡§πŸ‡· Brazil Weather Update:
Drier-than-normal conditions persist in many parts of Brazil, with rainfall over the next 10 days expected to maintain the status quo. Northern and central Brazil face below-normal rainfall, while the south maintains a moisture surplus. The forecast, seen as "non-threatening" for now, has implications for soybean price action.

🚒 Panama Canal Challenges Continue:
Severe drought in Panama continues to impact container shipping through the Panama Canal. Despite unexpected rainfall, drought conditions persist, reducing canal crossings from 36 to 25, with an expected further decrease to 18 by February. Non-booked vessels are experiencing longer wait times, currently averaging 11.7 days.

πŸ›’οΈ Oil Prices Decline on OPEC+ Doubts:
Oil prices have fallen amid demand concerns and uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ supply cuts. Brent crude dropped 1.1% to $77.18 per barrel, and WTI crude declined 1.5% to $72.24 per barrel. Investors question the full implementation of voluntary supply reductions by OPEC+, leading to market pressure amid lackluster demand.

πŸ’Ό Job Openings Impact Treasury Yields:
Reduced job openings have caused 10-year Treasury yields to fall below 4.2%. The data reflects the lowest job openings since 2021. However, concerns arise over market anticipation of rate cuts from the Fed, prompting advisories to step back from longer-term maturity bonds.

πŸ“ˆ Stay informed on evolving market dynamics! #USDAReports #WheatSales #BrazilWeather #Pana

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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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