As the war enters its second winter and third year, are we now facing the prospect of battles lasting until at least 2025?

The prospect of an immediate decisive military breakthrough for Ukraine has disappeared. Kyiv’s offensive – launched in the summer – has largely subsided, with Ukraine’s troops exhausted from over six months of intense fighting. At the same time, Ukraine’s key international support pillars are under pressure. Depleted Western armouries will have far less to provide to Ukraine in the year ahead. Western political unity is being questioned, with struggles in the US Congress to ensure that Kyiv receives the critical military and economic assistance that it will need in 2024. And the EU is facing questions about whether there will be the unanimity to agree a €50-billion aid package and to open membership negotiations. Within Ukraine there are growing signs of concern about the current direction of the war.

With the military campaign appearing to face a period of prolonged stalemate, in this episode of Global Security Briefing we are joined by Mark Galeotti, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow and Principal Director, Mayak Intelligence.