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The last 90 days have fundamentally changed the Australian economy.

Three rate rises from the RBA, a wave of government tax changes, and the "everything everywhere" boom of last year has flipped into the fastest housing decline we have seen - and almost all of it is self-inflicted.

So here is my call. I think this is the biggest policy mistake I have watched an Australian government make, and it forces the other side of the trade: 6 to 8 rate cuts by the end of 2027. In this episode Curtis and I put our Treasury hats on and walk through exactly why, step by step.

In this discussion we trace the chain reaction - a 20% collapse in property transactions, the housing multiplier that drags the whole economy down with it, credit growth falling off a cliff, record-low confidence, and a trillion-dollar wealth wipeout - then why all of that forces the RBA back to neutral, and what it means if you are buying.

What you'll learn:

- Why property transactions could fall 20% or more, back to 2018 levels, and why that hits far more than housing
- The housing multiplier: how roughly 20% of economic activity is property-related or adjacent
- Why credit growth may fall from about 8% to 2.9% (ANZ's forecast)
- How consumer confidence at a 53-year low freezes spending across the economy
- The wealth effect in reverse: what a trillion-dollar wealth wipeout does to cars, retail and hospitality
- Why the RBA and most economists only "tweak the edges" and miss the wild swings
- The case for 6 to 8 rate cuts by the end of 2027, starting with 4 back-to-back to get back to neutral
- Why these conditions hand buyers rare negotiating power right now
- Subscribe for calm, data-led analysis of the Australian property market and economy every week.

#AustralianProperty #InterestRates #RBA #RateCuts #PropertyMarket

Chapters
0:00 The predictions, in 60 seconds
0:44 90 days that broke the market
2:04 The call: 6 to 8 rate cuts by 2027
4:12 Reason 1: a 20% collapse in transactions
10:52 Reason 2: credit growth falls off a cliff
12:02 Reason 3: confidence at a 53-year low
13:53 Reason 4: the trillion-dollar wealth wipeout
16:03 Why the RBA keeps getting it wrong
20:00 Reason 5: back to neutral rates
23:03 Four back-to-back cuts explained
25:05 Phase two: 2027
27:39 What it means for buyers

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au