In this deep-dive episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Matthew Zolnowski, former Special Advisor at the U.S. Department of Defense and President of Greyfires LLC, for an expert exploration of critical minerals and rare earth elements in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition. As tensions escalate in the Indo-Pacific, they examine why these "rocks" are essential building blocks for both military weapon systems and the civilian economy.

Critical Minerals vs. Rare Earths: Understanding the Difference

Matt breaks down the distinction between critical minerals (50+ commodities spanning the periodic table from antimony to zirconium) and rare earth elements (those mysterious bottom rows of the periodic table you never had to learn). He explains China's dominant position in heavy rare earth processing, particularly for permanent magnets used in defense applications, while noting that light rare earths like cerium and lanthanum—used in petroleum refining and glass polishing—remain more accessible from domestic sources like California's Mountain Pass mine.

Stockpiling, Strategy, and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

The discussion reveals concerning gaps in U.S. defense procurement, including how electronic components bypass normal sourcing requirements, allowing Chinese rare earth magnets into submarines through hard drives, while direct magnet purchases require allied sourcing. Zolnowski details the $2 billion stockpile expansion and explains how stockpiles "buy time" rather than widgets—bridging the gap between crisis onset and Defense Production Act responses.

Industrial Policy vs. Market Forces

Ray and Jim probe the tension between America's traditional free-market approach and emerging industrial policy, examining deals like the MP Materials contract with its $150 million heavy rare earth separation line and EBITDA guarantees. Matt argues this represents uncharted territory, fundamentally breaking with traditional government-industry relationships as the U.S. grapples with China's strategic dominance in processing and price manipulation.

Australia, Allies, and Alternative Strategies

The hosts explore why U.S.-Australia collaboration on critical minerals has remained limited despite Australia's "periodic table on a plate" capabilities, with Zolnowski noting regulatory barriers that only recently opened Defense Production Act eligibility to Australian companies. He advocates for commodity-specific strategies rather than broad critical minerals policies, suggesting successful models like heavy mineral sands operations that diversify beyond single-commodity dependence.

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In this urgent bonus episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso return to discuss the sharp re-escalation at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea following the highly publicized Chinese naval collision at Scarborough Shoal on August 11, 2025. Drawing from satellite imagery, open-source information, and media reports, they analyze China’s deployment of an armed maritime “swarm” near the BRP Sierra Madre, including coast guard cutters, maritime militia vessels, and rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs) equipped with mounted weapons.

China’s Escalation and Swarming Tactics

Ray details how, just a day after the collision, China shifted significant assets from Mischief Reef to Second Thomas Shoal, amassing a force that now includes coast guard ships, maritime militia vessels, and armed RHIBs maneuvering alarmingly close to the Philippine military outpost. This “swarming” not only serves as a physical blockade but also as psychological intimidation through water cannon drills and propaganda operations.

Historical and Strategic Context

The BRP Sierra Madre has symbolized Philippine sovereignty at the shoal since being deliberately grounded in 1999, which lies within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone. Despite China’s extensive militarization of neighboring Mischief Reef and other features, they have yet to dislodge this single ship—a continuous thorn in Beijing’s nine-dash line claims and a longtime flashpoint for maritime confrontation.

Provocation, Deterrence, and International Implications

Jim and Ray explore the strategic calculus behind China’s move, interpreting it as a probe aimed at provoking a Philippine misstep to justify more forceful measures, such as seizure or siege of the outpost. Philippine forces remain strictly instructed to exercise restraint, aware of the potentially explosive consequences. The episode places these events within a broader geopolitical framework, including rising tensions in U.S.-Taiwan relations, the recent Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, and emerging uncertainties in U.S. alliances across Asia.

What’s Next: Risks and Responses

The hosts weigh the possibility of China demanding new concessions to allow future Philippine resupply missions, emphasizing that a full siege would be catastrophic and globally indefensible. Given the rusted state of the Sierra Madre and its irreplaceable symbolic value, any disruption to resupply could be a tipping point. They also assess the credibility of U.S. treaty commitments and freedom of navigation operations as signals of deterrence or escalation.

Anecdote on Summit Diplomacy

On a lighter note, Ray offers a “there I was” story from President Obama’s 2016 visit to Vietnam, where a meticulously planned official lunch was upended for an impromptu meal with Anthony Bourdain, which became the headline for the visit.

Why Listen?

A definitive update and expert analysis on the mounting crisis in the South China Sea, China’s maritime gray-zone tactics and their implications for Philippine sovereignty, and Indo-Pacific alliances and security dynamics.

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In this must-listen episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Arthur Sinodinos, Australia’s former Ambassador to the United States and key figure in the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security pact, to get the exclusive inside story on how this landmark agreement came to be, how they dealt with fallout from capitals in China, France, and Southeast Asia, and why this agreement is a strategic game-changer for the Indo-Pacific region and global security.

AUKUS Origins & Negotiations: Ambassador Sinodinos takes listeners behind the scenes, sharing firsthand accounts of the tense and complex negotiations that led to the historic AUKUS pact. Learn how shifting geopolitics, submarine technology, and strategic urgency propelled Australia to pursue nuclear-powered submarines, pivoting away from a French deal to partner with the US and UK.

The Political Hurdles and Breakthroughs: Hear exclusive details on the US administration’s priorities—affordability, bipartisan support, and non-proliferation—and the roles played by world leaders in making AUKUS a reality. Sinodinos delves into how the agreement was shaped amidst the skepticism, and how subsequent legislative reforms have already boosted technology sharing and industrial collaboration among the allies.

Regional and Global Impact: This episode addresses the shockwaves AUKUS sent through the Indo-Pacific and beyond: the diplomatic fallout with France, reactions from China and ASEAN countries, and the challenges of keeping such a monumental agreement secret until the last moment. Sinodinos also discusses the "Pillar Two" focus on advanced capabilities like AI, quantum, and cyber, adding another level of strategic cooperation.

The Future of AUKUS and Defence Policy: The conversation explores ongoing debates in Australia—including headwinds from prominent critics, questions about US commitment, and concerns about defence spending thresholds. Sinodinos assesses the credibility of America’s promises to deliver nuclear submarines and outlines the pressure both countries face to stay on schedule and deliver strategic value.

Personal Insights from Washington During Crisis: Discover what it was like running the Australian embassy in Washington D.C. during the COVID-19 pandemic, the tumultuous 2020 US election, and the January 6th Capitol riot. Sinodinos candidly reflects on bridging cultural divides, correcting Australian misconceptions about America, and what makes the US-Australia partnership resilient through political and economic shocks.

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso interview Indonesian international law scholar Aristyo Darmawan about President Prabowo Subianto's transformative foreign policy during his first six months in office. The discussion reveals a dramatic shift in Indonesia's strategic positioning as the nation balances between major powers while pursuing ambitious economic goals.

Darmawan highlights Indonesia's controversial decision to join BRICS, making it the first Southeast Asian nation to become a full member. This move reflects Prabowo's pragmatic approach to achieving his ambitious 8% economic growth target and funding expensive social programs like free nutritious meals for schoolchildren. The conversation explores Indonesia's surprising recognition of "overlapping claims" with China in the South China Sea through a joint development agreement - a decision that shocked foreign ministry officials and potentially signals implicit recognition of Beijing's nine-dash line claims.

The episode examines Indonesia's delicate balancing act between U.S. and Chinese interests, including the recent tariff negotiations with the Trump administration that reduced tariffs from 32% to 19%. However, this deal came with significant concessions, including commitments to purchase American aircraft and remove trade barriers. The discussion reveals how public sentiment, particularly regarding the Palestinian conflict, influences Indonesian perceptions of the United States and benefits China's regional standing.

Darmawan emphasizes Prabowo's highly personalized, top-down foreign policy approach, which has bypassed traditional bureaucratic channels and created uncertainty about Indonesia's strategic objectives. This "merry-go-round diplomacy" shows high activity but unclear goals, contrasting with previous administrations' more structured approaches.

The conversation also addresses Indonesia's evolving role within ASEAN, its cautious stance on security groupings like AUKUS, and the challenges in its relationship with Australia. Aristyo, Ray, and Jim also discuss how Chinese propaganda efforts and the reduction of U.S. information initiatives like Radio Free Asia have shifted regional narratives.

👉 Follow Aristyo's analysis on LinkedIn and X (@aristioo) for ongoing commentary on Indonesian foreign policy and international law.

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In this special, emergency episode, we dive into the dramatic South China Sea incident this week near Scarborough Shoal. Fresh from Manila, co-host Ray Powell—drawing on his expertise as the Director of the SeaLight maritime transparency organization—takes the "guest" seat to unpack the events with co-host Jim Carouso. The discussion highlights the escalating China-Philippines tensions, with its implications for regional stability and US alliances.

Our hosts describe how a Chinese destroyer slammed into a China Coast Guard vessel while pursuing the much smaller Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Suluan near Scarborough Shoal on August 11, 2025. The collision crumpled the Coast Guard ship's bow and likely caused casualties. Ray notes the Suluan got within 10.5 nautical miles of the shoal, closer than any Philippine vessel in over a year, which challenged China's undeclared exclusion zone around the contested feature in a way that drew an unexpected military response.

Providing context, Ray traces the shoal's history: China's 2012 seizure, the 2016 arbitral ruling affirming traditional fishing rights for all nations (including the Philippines), and recent escalations. Since spring 2024, China has enforced a 25-30 nautical mile exclusion zone, blocking Philippine government vessels and fishermen alike in defiance of the arbitral award. The Philippines’ “Kadiwa” mission involved five vessels to provide direct aid to fishermen now forced to operate in exposed waters due to China's denial of the shoal.

The hosts analyze the game-changer: the People's Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) destroyer's direct involvement. This military escalation risked crossing red lines, like President Marcos's 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue statement that a Filipino sailor's death could invoke the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. Ray speculates the destroyer aimed to intimidate (not ram) the Philippine ship, but that a misjudgement in the other direction could have resulted in a catastrophe in the diplomatic, as well as the maritime, sense.

Broader implications emerge: Ray evaluates China's increased presence amid new laws allowing 60-day detentions and new straight-baseline claims around the shoal. Jim and Ray try to separate how this incident relates to Beijing’s direct confrontation with Manila versus its indirect contest with the Philippines’ ally, the United States.

Jim and Ray discuss other dramatic events around Scarborough Shoal this week: a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft faced Chinese fighter jet harassment, and the U.S. Navy conducted its own freedom of navigation operation (FONOP).

They also ponder tactical coordination failures between China's navy and coast guard; discuss how Beijing’s lionization of the fighter pilot who died during the 2001 EP-3 incident may inspire recklessness; and what it all may mean for a future Taiwan contingency.

Wrapping up, they urge reflection on abyss-peering scenarios: What if the collision had sunk the Philippine ship or killed Filipinos? It could trigger a diplomatic crisis and White House treaty decisions, testing US deterrence. For Filipinos, all this took place near an extremely important fishing ground within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

A potential silver lining? The mishap exposes China's vulnerabilities, and could deter future rash actions–but only if Beijing learns the right lessons. Its recent history, its state media’s unwillingness to even acknowledge the mishap, and its blame-shifting suggest it may elect a more confrontational path.

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso dive deep into former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's dramatic 2016 pivot from the US to China. Joined by authors Marites Vitug and Camille Elemia, they discuss their book Unrequited Love: Duterte's China Embrace.

The conversation kicks off with why this "love affair" matters globally–how it reshaped South China Sea geopolitics, tested international law, and challenged the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty over Duterte’s six-year term in office. Duterte downplayed the 2016 arbitral ruling against China as "a piece of paper," turning a blind eye to Chinese incursions while seeking economic aid. Our guests explain how China provided cover for Duterte's drug war while the West heaped on criticism.

Duterte's pro-China tilt stemmed from personal history: As Davao City mayor, he built ties with Chinese businessmen and harbored anti-US resentment from incidents like when a suspected US agent allegedly implicated in a Davao City bombing incident was whisked out of the country. Influenced by communist professor Jose Maria Sison and his anti-imperialist mother, Duterte viewed America as imperialists. Yet, surveys show Filipinos mostly remain pro-US and distrust China, with 70-80% favoring assertion of West Philippine Sea rights.

The 2016 election saw Duterte win by portraying himself as an authentic outsider fighting a "narco state." His charm, social media savvy, and anti-elite messaging resonated, in contrast to his predecessor’s perceived lack of empathy.

Economically, however, the promised benefits fell flat: Duterte touted billions in Chinese loans, but only 3-4 infrastructure projects materialized. In return, the authors contend that China gained "free rein" in disputed waters, ultimately blocking Philippine resource exploration. Xi Jinping benefited from strategic breathing room, more ASEAN allies, and weakened US influence—though some in Duterte's cabinet resisted, voicing the military’s deep sentiments against appeasement.

Despite this, Rodrigo Duterte left office with his popularity largely intact due to his personal connection to the electorate, not his foreign policy. Our guests resist his supporters’ pragmatism claims, noting neighbors like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam are able to balance China without surrendering their sovereignty.

The authors express fears that his daughter Sara Duterte–the Philippines’ current vice president–may revive his pro-China policies if elected in 2028. She opposes US missiles like the Typhon; never criticizes Chinese aggression, and repeats his scare tactics about war. Unlike current President Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Jr., who pivoted back to the US, Sara lacks significant Western exposure. Her charisma, Duterte brand, and social media machine boost her chances, even amid a recent impeachment effort.

The episode touches on the recent Marcos-Trump deal (which saw tariffs barely cut from 20% to 19%), divided reactions in the Philippines, and media bubbles. The authors explain that President Duterte's current ICC detention for drug war crimes has drawn sympathy, potentially aiding Sara's bid.

A must-listen for insights on Philippine politics, US-China rivalry, South China Sea tensions, and Duterte's enduring legacy. Get the book on Amazon (ebook) or Ateneo Press. Follow guests on Facebook, LinkedIn, or X.

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In a groundbreaking episode, Ray and Jim welcome their first-ever head of state as a guest—President Surangel Whipps Jr., the 10th President of the Republic of Palau. This historic interview marks a milestone for the podcast, which has previously featured cabinet ministers, four-star officers, ambassadors, and parliamentarians across 90+ episodes.

President Whipps delivered a powerful message about Palau's steadfast diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, declaring the relationship as lasting "until death do us part". Despite China's economic inducements and tourism boycotts, this Pacific island nation of just 20,000 people remains one of only 12 countries worldwide that continue to recognize Taiwan diplomatically.

The president explained that Palau values partnerships with countries sharing the same principles: rule of law and aninternational rules-based order. Since becoming diplomatic allies with Taiwan in 1999, Palau has weathered significant economic pressure, including China's tourism boycott that reduced visitors from 100,000 Chinese tourists (then representing 70% of its total tourism) to zero after 2016.

President Whipps shared compelling examples of China's economic warfare tactics, including offers to build casinos to solve Palau's pension crisis and promises of "a million tourists" with unlimited hotel development. However, the president emphasized that mass Chinese tourism brought environmental challenges, including illegal harvesting of protected species like the bumphead parrotfish and Napoleon wrasse.

Under the Compact of Free Association (COFA), recently renewed, Palau maintains a perpetual defense relationship with the United States. The compact grants the US security and denial rights to Palau while providing economic stability and protection. President Whipps highlighted the construction of an over-the-horizon radar site, emphasizing that Palau has "always had a target on our back because of our location".

Managing an exclusive economic zone the size of Texas with only two patrol boats presents enormous challenges. Whipps described ongoing issues with illegal fishing, unauthorized Chinese research vessels, and the discovery of 100 fish aggregating devices in Palau's waters. Chinese research vessels have been operating year-round in Palau's extended continental shelf, even naming underwater ridges with Chinese names.

The president delivered sobering testimony about climate change impacts, describing it as "like a slow death" compared to the bombings of World War II. Palau faces disappearing stingless jellyfish (their top tourist attraction), rising sea levels, and the potential loss of entire low-lying islands with their unique cultures and languages.

President Whipps emphasized the importance of multilateral partnerships, referencing Palau's traditional symbol of the surgeonfish: "when danger comes, you come together”. Through the Pacific Island Forum and other alliances, small island nations amplify their voices on critical issues like maritime security and climate change.

This unprecedented interview offers unique insights from a Pacific island leader navigating great power competition while protecting sovereignty, culture, and environment.

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, to analyze the fallout from Taiwan's recent failed recall election attempt and what it means for the island's future.

The discussion centers on the July 26 recall votes, where an attempt to remove 24 opposition Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers from office was rejected by voters. This outcome solidifies a challenging period of divided government for President Lai Ching-te's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which controls the presidency but not the legislature. Templeman explains that the recalls, initiated by grassroots activists concerned about the KMT's legislative agenda, represented a high-stakes effort to shift the balance of power. Their failure means President Lai must continue to navigate an opposition that has resisted efforts to bolster Taiwan's defenses against pressure from the People's Republic of China (PRC).

The podcast provides essential context on Taiwan's key political players:

• The KMT, or "Blue" camp, is Taiwan's oldest political party. Once staunchly anti-communist, it now advocates for engagement and dialogue with Beijing and is seen as the party the PRC prefers. The KMT positions itself as better able to manage cross-strait relations peacefully.

• The DPP, or "Green" camp, is more skeptical of China. The Lai administration has focused on strengthening Taiwan's military and civil resilience, a stance the KMT-led opposition claims is provocative.

Templeman unpacks the broader geopolitical implications, touching on how Beijing frames the recall failure as a rejection of "Taiwan independence". The conversation also covers the recent US decision to deny President Lai a stop in New York City during a planned transit visit, a move viewed by many as a concession to Beijing amid ongoing US-China negotiations. This highlights the complex and often transactional nature of the US-Taiwan relationship.

Looking ahead, with the recall option almost exhausted, Taiwan's political factions face a stalemate. Templeman suggests this could lead to either more intense partisan conflict or a period of moderation and compromise as both parties eye the 2026 local elections. This episode offers a crucial analysis of the domestic power struggles and international pressures shaping Taiwan's path forward.

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome back Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and professor at Princeton University, to examine how recent U.S. military strikes in Iran impact deterrence dynamics across the Indo-Pacific region.

Iran Strikes and China Deterrence

Cooper argues that U.S. strikes against Iran may actually strengthen deterrence against China by demonstrating American unpredictability. Chinese officials had reportedly viewed Trump as a "paper tiger" following trade negotiations, but the Iran strikes have forced Beijing to recalculate its assumptions about U.S. willingness to use force in a Taiwan crisis.

Alliance Management Under Pressure

The conversation explores growing tensions in U.S. Indo-Pacific alliances as the Trump administration links trade negotiations to security commitments. Cooper expresses concern that threatened tariffs and demands for increased defense spending could undermine alliance relationships, particularly with South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

Nuclear Proliferation Concerns

The panel discusses alarming implications for nuclear proliferation in the Indo-Pacific, with Cooper warning that recent events may accelerate desires for independent nuclear capabilities among regional allies. The setback to Iran's nuclear program paradoxically demonstrates both the risks and benefits of pursuing nuclear weapons.

Regional Defense Architecture

Cooper critically examines Eli Ratner's proposal for an Indo-Pacific defense pact (the "Squad" - U.S., Japan, Australia, Philippines), arguing that formal defense agreements may be premature given current political realities in allied capitals. He suggests focusing on operational cooperation and interoperability instead.

India-Pakistan Lessons

The recent India-Pakistan border conflict provides valuable insights for Indo-Pacific military planning, with Cooper noting that Indian air operations were largely successful despite Pakistani use of Chinese-supplied air defense systems.

Information Warfare Challenges

As chairman of the Open Technology Fund, Cooper discusses ongoing efforts to maintain internet freedom tools like Signal and VPN access in authoritarian countries, despite Trump administration attempts to shut down U.S. Agency for Global Media operations.

Strategic Implications

Cooper emphasizes that while Middle East conflicts may seem distant from Indo-Pacific concerns, they fundamentally shape how regional powers assess American resolve and commitment. The unpredictability doctrine may serve deterrence purposes, but creates significant challenges for alliance management and strategic planning.

👉 Follow Zack Cooper on X, @ZackCooper, and pick up a copy of his book Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries

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In this episode, we interview Andrew Phelan, a China specialist with decades of business experience, to analyze Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's week-long diplomatic visit to China. The discussion examines critical questions about Australia's economic dependence on China, security vulnerabilities, and the broader implications for Indo-Pacific stability.

Phelan asserts that no country has benefited more from China's rise than Australia. Since China's opening under Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s, Australia has experienced unprecedented economic growth, with China transforming from a closed economy similar to North Korea today into Australia's largest trading partner. This relationship has fundamentally underwritten Australia's wealth and sustained economic expansion without recession.

However, this prosperity comes with significant risks. Australia's economy, worth just over a trillion dollars, is dwarfed by China's economic might. Unrestricted Chinese foreign direct investment could result in Australia losing its economic independence entirely. The recent rejection of Chinese acquisition attempts highlights the tension between economic opportunity and national sovereignty.

The discussion reveals concerning patterns of technology transfer, where Western corporations pursuing quarterly profits inadvertently strengthen future competitors. This short-term thinking contrasts sharply with China's long-term strategic planning and subsidies.

Phelan also cites evidence of Chinese interference in Australian elections, including AI-based communications specifically targeting the Australian-Chinese community. Following the October 7 attacks in Gaza, for example, some speeches were manipulated using AI and distributed through Chinese social media platforms to influence vulnerable community members.

The relationship between China and Australia's Labor Party raises additional concerns. Victoria's former Premier Daniel Andrews maintained controversial close ties with China, including signing the only standalone Belt and Road Initiative agreement by any global jurisdiction. This led to new federal legislation preventing such unilateral agreements.

Australia's current defense capabilities pale compared to World War II preparations. Phelan says that today's "boutique defense force" of 60,000 personnel from a 25 million person population is nowhere near adequate for current strategic challenges.

The Pentagon's AUKUS review under Elbridge Colby reflects legitimate concerns about allied preparedness. Phelan believes the best way to avoid conflict is to be as well-prepared as possible, requiring clear commitments from allies facing an increasingly assertive China.

China's objective to distance the United States from its allies shows “patchy” success. While their soft power efforts remain “clumsy” and easily identifiable, institutional influence through organizations like the Australia-China Relations Institute demonstrates more subtle approaches.

Xi Jinping's global initiatives represent an alternative operating system for the world, seeking to make Chinese governance models the default globally. This constitutes “an existential challenge to democratic governance”, requiring sustained engagement and strategic clarity from democratic nations.

The episode reveals Australia's precarious position between economic prosperity and strategic security. As China's “continuous struggle” philosophy ensures ongoing pressure, Phelan says Australia must develop a greater strategic backbone while maintaining necessary economic relationships. The challenge extends beyond Australia to all Indo-Pacific democracies navigating similar dependencies in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

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