When the U.S. recently launched strikes on Iran, the world’s attention turned to Diego Garcia, a vital military base in the Indian Ocean. Known as the “footprint of freedom,” this isolated atoll allows the U.S. to port Navy ships, resupply nuclear submarines, and launch strategic bombers. However, its future is in serious jeopardy.

During the conflict, the UK initially withheld permission for the U.S. to launch strikes from the island. Beyond that, the UK has been pushing a highly controversial deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago, which includes Diego Garcia, to Mauritius.

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Cleo Paskal, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a leading expert on Chinese political warfare. Cleo unpacks the dangerous implications of the Chagos handover, warning it could allow Chinese maritime assets to operate dangerously close to U.S. forces, threatening American power projection.

Cleo unpacks the uncertain prospects for the deal, and then proposes instead giving the Chagossian people a democratic vote in their future, and suggests they may very well prefer the status quo or even a U.S. affiliation to any handover to Mauritius.

The conversation then pivots to the Pacific Islands, where China is quietly expanding its influence through political and gray zone warfare. Cleo details how a Chinese state-owned company secured a foothold in Yap (Federated States of Micronesia) by building a remote runway, gaining political leverage and physical presence right next to planned U.S. defense infrastructure.

Cleo also sounds the alarm on the U.S. territory of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Located on the Second Island Chain, CNMI currently allows Chinese tourists to arrive without a visa, leading to massive local corruption, intelligence risks, and illegal maritime crossings into the highly secure military hubs of Guam.

Tune in to discover why Cleo believes the transfer of Diego Garcia would be a “colossal strategic blunder,” how China is co-opting U.S. funds for its own Belt and Road projects, and why the frontline of Indo-Pacific security is much closer to home than we realize.

👉 Follow Cleo Paskal at FDD, on X at @CleoPaskal, or on LinkedIn.

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In December 2025, a four-ship People’s Liberation Army Navy task group - including an amphibious assault ship capable of carrying 1,000 Marines and 30 helicopters - tracked southeast through the Western Pacific, passing through waters near Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands. Australia scrambled surveillance aircraft. Pacific Island leaders said almost nothing publicly. Most of the world barely noticed.

Our guest noticed - because she was there. Ambassador Laura Stone just retired as the US Ambassador to the Republic of the Marshall Islands, capping a distinguished Foreign Service career that included multiple tours in Beijing and serving as Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for China. She joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to explain why this naval activity matters far more than the headlines suggest.

In this episode: What is China’s “second island cloud” strategy, and why does the Marshall Islands sit at its center? What is the Compact of Free Association, and why does it make the Marshall Islands far more than just a remote atoll? What is Kwajalein Atoll, and why should you Google it right now? How is China using economic influence, bribery, and Belt and Road investment to gain a foothold in the Pacific - and what’s working (and not working) in the US response? What does the gutting of USAID mean for the Pacific Islands? And what does the nuclear legacy of US atomic testing still mean for Marshallese people today?

Ambassador Stone also paints a frank picture of the Marshall Islands’ future - a country losing 3–5% of its population per year to outward migration, sitting just six feet above sea level, facing an existential climate threat that Washington is no longer prioritizing.

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On February 20th, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize President Donald Trump to impose tariffs - a landmark decision that immediately scrambled U.S. trade policy and sent governments and businesses across the Indo-Pacific into a scramble to figure out what it means for them.

Co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by two of the sharpest minds in U.S. trade and Asia-Pacific economic policy: Bill Reinsch, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and co-host of the Trade Guys podcast, and Nydia Ngiow, Managing Director for Global Trade and Economics at BowerGroupAsia in Singapore.

In Episode 132 we break down:

• What IEEPA is, how it became a tariff weapon, and why the Court said “no”

• Trump’s immediate Plan B - a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and why that will almost certainly be challenged in court too

• What Section 301, Section 232, and other alternative trade tools mean for countries in the region - and why they may be slower, narrower, and harder to wield

• Whether countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Cambodia that negotiated trade deals under the IEEPA tariff threat got a raw deal - and what happens to those agreements now

• The potential for domestic political backlash against leaders seen as having made too many concessions to Washington

• Why the ruling may not have handcuffed Trump as much as the headlines suggest

• And what the real-world economic impact of tariffs has - and hasn’t - been over the past year

If you follow U.S.-China trade tensions, Indo-Pacific economics and geopolitics, or global supply chains, this episode is essential listening.

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Myanmar just held its latest round of so-called elections - but the military's proxy party won over 85% of seats after banning the country's most popular opposition party and imprisoning its leaders, including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Voting couldn't even take place across large portions of the country because resistance forces control the territory. So why do these sham elections matter to the rest of the world?

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with retired three-time U.S. Ambassador and author Scot Marciel to unpack what these elections really mean, and why the stakes reach far beyond Southeast Asia.

Myanmar has become the world's largest source of methamphetamines and a booming hub for cyber scam operations that bilk victims worldwide out of billions of dollars annually. China is simultaneously deepening its strategic footprint in the country, building ports and pipelines from its southern provinces to the Indian Ocean - a critical geopolitical waterway - while Chinese companies extract rare earth minerals from Myanmar's north that barely benefit the country's own people.

Ambassador Marciel explains why the military held elections at all - not out of any democratic impulse, but to manufacture legitimacy and give countries like China, India, and Russia a convenient excuse to re-engage. He also breaks down why ASEAN, despite refusing to certify the results, remains largely paralyzed: constrained by its own consensus rules and non-interference norms, while watching China's influence expand with little competition.

On the outlook, Marciel is candid: there is no magic bullet, no easy diplomatic compromise, and the most likely near-term scenario is more of the same - a grinding civil war fading into the background while a fatigued world looks away. But he closes with one reason for hope: the extraordinary, unbreakable resilience of the Myanmar people themselves.

👉 Read Ambassador Marciel’s book, Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia

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👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In Ep. 130, Ray and Jim sit down with Clive Hamilton, one of the world's leading experts on Chinese Communist Party political influence operations. Hamilton is the author of the groundbreaking books Silent Invasion: China's Influence in Australia and Hidden Hand: Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party Is Reshaping the World.

In this compelling podcast, Hamilton shares the dramatic story behind Silent Invasion - a book so controversial that three major Australian publishers rejected it for fear of Beijing's retaliation. He reveals the personal costs of exposing CCP interference, from cyber-attacks that destroyed his laptop to being banned from China and labeled a "black hand" by Beijing's official media.

Hamilton breaks down how the CCP's United Front Work Department orchestrates political warfare through elite capture, diaspora mobilization, and covert influence in universities, media, and politics. He explains how Australia's 2018 counter-interference laws and Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme (FITS) emerged as a democratic defense - and evaluates their real-world effectiveness, including enforcement challenges and necessary reforms.

The conversation explores critical lessons for the Philippines and other Indo-Pacific nations facing similar CCP pressure, especially regarding South China Sea tensions. Hamilton offers practical advice on designing swift, effective counter-interference legislation while protecting diaspora communities from discrimination.

This is essential listening for anyone interested in China’s strategy, foreign influence operations, national security, democratic resilience, and Indo-Pacific geopolitics.

👉 Follow Clive Hamilton on LinkedIn

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Japan’s February 8th snap election delivered a historic result: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a rare two‑thirds supermajority in the powerful lower house, giving her the strongest mandate any postwar leader has enjoyed to date. That will sharply increase what she can do on economic policy, defense readiness, and how Japan responds to pressures from both the US and China.

​Jake Schlesinger - President and CEO of the US‑Japan Foundation and a longtime Japan-watcher - joins the show to explain why this election was a potential turning point in a political system often seen as stable to the point of stagnation. He argues that while Japan’s politics have frequently been defined by weak and short-lived prime ministers and cautious consensus, this vote creates the conditions for unusually decisive leadership.

Schlesinger describes an electorate focused less on the LDP’s history of political ethics controversies and more on daily economic pressure combined with a sense that Takaichi herself represents a fresh face. The episode unpacks how Japanese voters can be skeptical about big fiscal promises while still rewarding the leader who seems most willing to speak directly to pocketbook issues like inflation, wages, and household strain.

The conversation shifts to geopolitics, as Schlesinger highlights how China’s recent threats and coercive signaling appeared to backfire, strengthening public support for a leader who stands up rather than backing down. He frames this as a meaningful change in Japan’s public mood: a country once inclined to avoid antagonizing neighbors is increasingly prepared to accept friction if it’s tied to national security - particularly around Taiwan, a Chinese invasion of which Takaichi has warned would pose an existential crisis for Japan.

The episode also examines what this election mandate could mean for the US‑Japan alliance. While people-to-people ties remain strong, Schlesinger notes that Tokyo is navigating a complex era of “America-First” politics - simultaneously hugging the US closer while hedging its bets with other regional partners like Australia, India, the Philippines, and South Korea. Finally, the discussion touches on constitutional constraints on Japan’s military and whether this supermajority could finally open the door to a formal revision.

👉 Learn more about the US-Japan Foundation at its web site, on LinkedIn, on X at @usjf_ or on Facebook

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In this powerful episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Yaqiu Wang, a leading human rights advocate and fellow at the University of Chicago’s Forum for Free Inquiry and Expression. Born and raised in China, Wang offers a rare, insider perspective on what it really means to live under Xi Jinping’s surveillance state - and why the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) domestic repression is no longer just a “China problem,” but a direct threat to global freedom and Indo-Pacific security.

Most Westerners assume Chinese citizens have struck a “grand bargain” - trading freedom for economic prosperity. Wang dismantles this myth, revealing a population that never agreed to this trade-off but is coerced into silence by a sophisticated apparatus of fear. She explains how the CCP exports its model of digital authoritarianism to countries across Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, embedding surveillance tools into “smart city” projects that threaten democratic norms worldwide.

Key Topics Discussed:

• The Surveillance State: Wang describes the psychological toll of living in a society where every digital interaction is monitored, leading to deep-seated self-censorship that follows Chinese citizens even after they emigrate to the West.
• The WeChat Trap: Discover how the “super app” WeChat functions as a Trojan horse for CCP influence, effectively holding the Chinese diaspora hostage by controlling their primary news source and connection to family back home.
• Xinjiang & Human Rights: An in-depth look at the mass internment of Uyghurs, the predictive policing algorithms that flag innocent behaviors (like buying gym weights) as terrorist threats, and the heartbreak of watching the U.S. retreat from its role as a global champion of human rights.
• Transnational Repression: How Beijing’s reach extends far beyond its borders, harassing dissidents on foreign soil and pressuring foreign governments to silence critics.

Tune in to understand why the fight for human rights in China is inextricably linked to the national security of the United States and its allies.

About the Guest:

Yaqiu is a prominent researcher and activist who previously led China research at Human Rights Watch and Freedom House. She has testified before the U.S. Congress on issues ranging from internet censorship to women’s rights and continues to be a vocal advocate for the Chinese people despite personal risks.

👉 Learn more about Yaqiu’s work on her web site

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👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Is the global order collapsing, or can renewed American leadership still secure the Indo-Pacific? In Episode 127, Jim Carouso and Ray Powell sit down with Robert Blackwill, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and former U.S. Ambassador to India, to dissect his provocative new report, “America Revived: A Grand Strategy of Resolute Global Leadership”.

Ambassador Blackwill argues that the United States faces its most dangerous international landscape since World War II. With a rising, authoritarian China determined to displace the U.S. as the dominant power in Asia, Blackwill contends that current competing strategies - from Restraint to Nationalism to “Trumpism” - are failing to meet the moment. Instead, he proposes a bold, hybrid grand strategy which he labels “Resolute Global Leadership”.

We dive deep into what this strategy would mean for the future of the Indo-Pacific. Blackwill makes the controversial case for explicitly “containing” Chinese power and stopping the erosion of U.S. influence in the region. He offers a candid critique of the current administration’s “revolutionary” approach, warning that incoherent messaging is destroying allied trust and fueling dangerous debates about nuclear proliferation in capitals like Tokyo and Seoul.

Key topics discussed:

• The China Challenge: Why Blackwill believes we must label China a “hostile peer competitor” and what “containment” actually looks like in the 21st century.
• Grand Strategy 101: Breaking down the failures of Liberal Internationalism and Primacy, and why a fusion of the two is necessary to survive.
• The Trump Factor: How a personalized, transactional foreign policy undermines extended deterrence and how allies can effectively push back.
• Restoring Trust: Can Washington rebuild credibility with partners like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines before it’s too late?

The future direction of U.S. grand strategy will define the security and economy of the entire Indo-Pacific for decades. Tune in to understand why the stakes have never been higher.

👉 Read the report: America Revived | Council on Foreign Relations

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👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

China’s embassy in Manila has launched an unprecedented public campaign against Philippine government officials. In this episode, Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela - Beijing’s primary target - explains what’s at stake when foreign embassies publicly threaten democratic voices.

The controversy began when Tarriela posted images from a student presentation featuring AI-generated caricatures of Xi Jinping. China’s embassy called it “attacking and smearing Chinese leaders” and a “serious violation of China’s political dignity.” Beijing summoned the Philippine ambassador and demanded Tarriela “pay the price.” Tarriela refused to apologize, receiving backing from Philippine officials and strong public support - 94% of Filipinos support transparency efforts in the West Philippine Sea.

Tarriela identifies three reasons behind Beijing’s escalation: the Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026 and transparency during regional meetings could expose Chinese actions to neighboring countries; China may want to influence the 2028 Philippine election by reducing focus on West Philippine Sea issues; and transparency prevents China from executing operations like illegal reclamation without immediate international scrutiny.

He describes coordination between the Chinese embassy and online accounts that amplify Beijing’s messaging with identical talking points - evidence of organized information operations. Tarriela also addresses allegations that our co-host, the SeaLight Foundation’s Ray Powell, is a U.S. agent providing him with money and instructions, while explaining why Powell’s documentation of Chinese activities across Southeast Asia challenges Beijing’s narrative.

Since Tarriela’s last podcast appearance in May 2024, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have moved closer to Philippine shores, now operating near Pangasinan, Ilocos, Mindoro, and Bataan. Meanwhile, transparency efforts have achieved measurable results: Filipino awareness of West Philippine Sea issues has grown significantly, and international embassies that previously avoided naming China now publicly identify Chinese actions.

Tarriela makes the case for deploying U.S. Coast Guard vessels rather than Navy warships to counter China’s gray-zone tactics, and explains why he continues speaking out despite personal attacks: “Standing up for our rights is the obligation of everybody. We owe this to our national heroes and to the next generation.”

In the post-interview banter, Ray and Jim discuss how the Chinese embassy has also targeted Ray personally for SeaLight’s investigation into Chinese influence over Mandarin-language media outlets in the Philippines. They explore parallels with Australia’s experience combating similar influence operations and debate how democracies can balance freedom of the press with transparency about foreign funding and direction of media organizations.

👉 Follow Jay Tarriela on X, @jaytaryela, or on LinkedIn

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On January 27, 2026, India and the European Union are expected to announce “the mother of all trade deals” - a historic Free Trade Agreement covering 25% of the world’s GDP. After decades of protectionism, India is pivoting fast, racing to sign deals with developed economies like the EU, UAE, and Australia while diversifying away from China. But why now? And where does this leave the US under Trump 2.0?

In this episode, Anuj Gupta, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia (India) and former Chief of Staff to India’s Commerce Minister, takes us inside the room where these deals happen. We discuss:

• The Big Shift: Why 2014 was the turning point for India’s trade strategy and why they walked away from the RCEP trading bloc.

• The Pivot: Why India is suddenly rushing to sign FTAs with the West after years of hesitation.

• Geopolitics: How India balances Russian oil imports with EU trade ambitions and US strategic ties.

• The Future: Is India trying to be a bridge between blocs, or becoming a “third pole” in the global economy?

Whether you’re a business leader, policy watcher, or just curious about where the world economy is heading, this episode breaks down why India’s new playbook matters to you.

Anuj Gupta leads the India practice at BowerGroupAsia. A seasoned policy strategist, he previously served as Chief of Staff to India’s Minister for Commerce & Industry, where he helped shape key initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and India’s recent wave of FTAs. He has also led public policy for the Tata Group. Follow Anuj on LinkedIn or on X, @anujg

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• Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific