Over recent weeks, some 100,000 Russian troops have massed on the Ukrainian border -- for the second time this year. Ukrainian officials warn of a potential Russian invasion; Western leaders warn of severe consequences if that happens. 

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia director, Olga Oliker, and Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst. They discuss developments leading to the troop build-up: the breakdown of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian security forces; and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly testy statements about Ukraine’s relations with NATO member states. They look at what Putin may hope to gain with the troop deployments, whether Moscow is really prepared to use military force, what a military intervention might entail and how Ukraine and its Western partners might respond. They also look at what Western powers could do to deter an attack. 

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine and Russia pages.

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