War & Peace

In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Jeremy Shapiro, U.S. Program Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, about what the possible outcomes of the U.S. presidential election could mean for the future of transatlantic relations and European security. They weigh Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’ competing views about NATO and the value of multilateral alliances. They assess how European leaders can prepare for a more transactional Washington should Trump return to office and whether they can expect continuity of President Biden’s Atlanticist foreign policy if Harris is elected. They also discuss the extent to which far-right leaders in Europe would benefit from a second Trump presidency and how each candidate would go about finding an end to the war in Ukraine. 

For more, check out our commentary Toward a Plan B for Peace in Ukraine, our President’s Take The EU Awaits the U.S. Vote as Conflicts Rage and our Ripple Effect podcast on the U.S. elections.

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In the first episode of a new season of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Konul De Moor, Crisis Group’s consulting South Caucasus Analyst, about the difficult path toward peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan after Baku gained full control of Karabakh following a lightning offensive in September last year. They discuss the obstacles Baku faces in integrating Karabakh, including managing the return of displaced people and large-scale demining needs. They assess the peace process between Baku and Yerevan, the remaining sticking points to a deal and whether there is still a risk of an armed escalation between the two sides. They unpack the changing role of outside actors in the South Caucasus, including Russia’s struggle to maintain a foothold in the region and prospects for normalisation between Türkiye and Armenia. They also explore what roles Western powers can play in bringing Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to a peace agreement. 

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For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga speaks with Crisis Group’s consulting senior Balkans analyst Marko Prelec about the enduring political and ethnic tensions in the Western Balkans. They discuss the looming risk of Bosnia and Herzegovina breaking up amid secessionist threats by authorities in Republika Srpska and grievances among Bosnia’s ethnic groups with its political system and its international supervision. They talk about the challenges of reconciliation in Bosnia as the country commemorates the anniversary of the Srebrenica Genocide this month. They then unpack the tensions between Kosovo and Serbia and Pristina’s efforts to assert authority in the Serb-majority north of the country. They also ask about the prospects of EU enlargement to the region and the lessons identified from Balkan efforts to remember, build on, and move past contentious histories. 

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our EU Watchlist commentary Helping Keep Bosnia and Herzegovina Together and our report Northern Kosovo: Asserting Sovereignty amid Divided Loyalties.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Lucian Kim, senior Ukraine analyst at Crisis Group, about how perspectives on the war in Ukraine are evolving in Kyiv and Washington and how both capitals grapple with the prospect of a long war as the U.S. heads for elections. They speak about what has changed in Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion and how much unity there is among Ukrainian society and its leadership over the trajectory of the war. They unpack Ukraine’s new mobilisation law, how it is received by the military and ordinary citizens and whether it will have a substantial effect on the country’s war effort. They also assess where Washington’s Ukraine policy might be headed amid divisions in Congress over continued military support for Kyiv, how big of a role the war has played in the run-up to the U.S. elections and how Ukrainians view the prospect of a second Trump presidency. 

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our reports Ukraine: How to Hold the Line and A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories and our Q&A An Embattled Kyiv Looks for Aid in the Diplomatic Arena.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Crisis Group’s senior EU analyst Marta Mucznik and Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations Susi Dennison, about the upcoming European Union parliamentary elections. With predictions of right-wing gains high, they ask what such an electoral outcome could mean for foreign policy. They also look at the factors driving the rise of far-right parties throughout Europe, their ideological profiles and visions for Europe’s future. Specifically, they speculate on potential implications for EU support for Ukraine, relations with China and enlargement policy. They also discuss whether the far-right in Europe will keep gaining influence and what an increasingly fragmented political landscape could mean for the future.

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out ECFR’s policy brief A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections and our EU Watch List 2024 – Spring Update.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Crisis Group’s Oleg Ignatov, Senior Russia Analyst, and Marta Mucznik, Senior EU Analyst, about Moldova’s increasingly fraught relations with its breakaway region of Transnistria and Gagauz autonomous region, the recent appeals the two issued to Moscow for protection and implications for Chisinau’s EU membership goals. They discuss the shifting power dynamics between Transnistria and the pro-EU integration government in Moldova since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and what the breakaway region’s larger economic dependence on Chisinau and the EU means for the prospect of reunification. They assess Russia’s involvement in Moldova and Moscow’s geopolitical aims in the region. They also talk about how the EU views the situation in Moldova and what Chisinau and others can do to prevent tensions further escalating.

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Moldova country page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk to Joe Cirincione, author and a leading expert on arms control and national security, about the demise of arms control and the threat of nuclear war in a rapidly changing world order. They discuss the nuclear escalation risks of the war in Ukraine and the role deterrence has played in that war. They assess how U.S. nuclear policy has evolved in recent years and how it could change under a second Trump presidency. They also discuss why nuclear-armed countries are building up their arsenals and what policymakers in the U.S. and elsewhere can do to prevent the global arms control architecture from collapsing.

For more about the topics discussed in this episode, check out our website. You can read more from Joe on his substack Strategy & History.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Alissa de Carbonnel, Crisis Group’s Deputy Europe and Central Asia Director, and Simon Schlegel, Senior Ukraine Analyst, to talk about the latest developments along Ukraine’s front lines and the uncertainties emerging around support from Kyiv’s Western backers. They talk about the Russian takeover of Avdiivka on 17 February, what it means for the progress of the war and whether further Russian gains should be expected given Kyiv’s shortfalls in ammunition and personnel. They discuss how Europe is reacting to the gridlock in Washington over additional aid for Ukraine and why it has been difficult for the EU to ramp up its own arms production to meet Kyiv’s needs. They also assess how the trajectory of the war and the prospect of declining support from the West is perceived in Ukraine and how Kyiv might adapt in the year ahead. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Ukraine country page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Camille Lons, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to talk about how Europe is responding to rising tensions in the Red Sea. They discuss what’s behind the recent string of attacks on commercial shipping by Houthi rebels in Yemen and how disruptions to supply chains in these strategic waters might affect prices of energy and consumer goods in Europe. They assess the EU’s proposed naval mission Aspides, its role in upholding maritime security in the Red Sea and whether it could risk drawing Europe into a wider conflict in the Middle East. They also talk about what the EU can do to better address the root causes of instability in the Red Sea beyond military engagement, how it can present itself as an alternative partner to regional actors disgruntled with U.S. policy in the Middle East and whether it should consider cooperating with other powers with interests in the area, including China.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula page. For more on the EU’s role in peacemaking around the world, check out the latest edition of our EU Watch List.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, to assess Russia’s stance on the war in Gaza, how Russia is looking to benefit from the war and its approach to the Middle East. They look at how Moscow is trying to leverage the conflict to strengthen diplomatic and military ties with Gulf Arab states and ask just how much all this will damage its relations with Israel in the long term. They talk about Russia’s engagement with Iran and potentially shifting views on Iran’s nuclear program. They also discuss whether or not the war will undermine prospects for arms control in the Middle East.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Israel/Palestine and Russia pages.

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