Tomorrow we have the most highly anticipated Fed meeting ever, but this will not be the last time I'll say this

We'll also be anticipating October and December if the Fed does not raise interest rates in September

The odds are they won't do it

I put a Bloomberg story on my Facebook page: Yellen's former aid says a rate hike would be a serious error

Why? The official target for the Fed Funds Rate now is at a range of 0 to .25 basis points

The Fed is contemplating a rate of .25 which is the high end of the existing range

If they decide to keep the rate at .25, all they've done is fixed the rate at the high end of the range

This is not even a rate hike

Why would this be a disaster?

Isn't that an admission that the economy is fragile?

When Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1% after the dot com bubble and after Sept 11, people though, this is ridiculous!

Now we are talking about raising rates to a quarter of that and it is considered a disaster

What is going to change between September and October and October and December - unless they get worse

The serious error is to prick the bubble economy

The more serious error is for the Fed to raise rates and then admit that it was a mistake they lose credibility

We're going into recession regardless

If they raise rates, they will have to launch QE4 sooner

Any rate hike will sow the seed of a rate cut

On the topic of a recession, let's talk about the economic news we got today

The first release we got was August Retail Sales

A rise of .3 was expected and we got a gain of .2

These are not great numbers

The worse number of the day was Empire State Manufacturing: last month's horrible number was -14.92 the lowest since 2009

Wall Street was looking for -.5

September was -14.67; barely an improvement

Back to back the worse numbers since the great recession

The media barely reported on this number at all, but if it were good, it would have been in the headlines

The Redbook Year over Year Same Store Sales Index has collapsed - right now it is at 1.3

Previous years ranged between 3% and 5%

Industrial Production was expected to fall by .2, but fell by .4

Capacity Utilization dropped from 78 last month to 77.6

Manufacturing output dropped as well to -.5

Auto manufacturing had its biggest drop in 4 years

I have been talking on this podcast about the Auto Bubble and we are getting more evidence that the bubble has burst

The biggest decline in manufacturing in 4 years is pretty good evidence

The fact that there is a huge inventory of unsold cars on dealers' lots is evidence that the market is saturated

We got more news from business inventories: up .1 as expected

Sales are also falling, so the inventory to sales ration is still 1.36, a notch below the record high from the '08 financial crisis

Inventories have to come down a lot more because sales are not there

They are not there because the economy is weak

Earlier strong GDP growth was from inventory buildup

All the evidence points to recession

Employment numbers, which are theoretically good, are a lagging indicator

All the leading indicators of the economy are flashing a warning

Yet the media is ignoring the warnings and paying attention to Janet Yellen

She is pretending the economy is strong so she can pretend to raise rates

We need to allow the economy to go through that unfortunate crisis and allow the bubble economy to burst and the real economy to heal

The Federal Reserve shot us up with all these monetary drugs so unfortunately we have to check into monetary rehab

The alternative is to die of a overdose in the form of a currency crisis

In any event we will find out on Thursday and you will get my take on it late Thursday afternoon here on my podcast