WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Gold Pullback in Focus

• Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321.
• Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts.
• Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000.

Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025

• Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat.
• IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%.
• South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury's 1.9% target.

• China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing.
• Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play.
• Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself.

• Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)!
• Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage).
• One of the wildest moments in market history.

21 April 2020 | WTO goes negative

• Sodium-ion batteries could rival lithium: cheaper, safer, fast-charging.
• CATL is profitable and pays a dividend, but listed in Shenzhen, making access tricky.

• Brief mention of Aspen's contract dispute and loss.
• Lack of transparency continues to damage trust in management.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

• Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end.
• Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher.
• Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings.
  • Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250.
• Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher.
• SA gold stocks (YTD performance):
  • Pan African Resources +106%
  • Harmony +76%
  • AngloGold Ashanti* +72%
  • Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues)

Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025

• Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): "US may already be in a recession."
• Trump's constant tariff changes add more uncertainty.
• Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation).
• Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds.
• China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system.

• The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD.
• Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100.
• Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving.

• Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD.
• Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy.

• Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out:
• Strong results: HEPS up 204%.
• Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue.
• Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week.
• Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead?

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

• Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May.
• GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners.
• Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70.

• S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%.
• Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950.
• But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips.

S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025

• 104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years.
• Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est).
• Massive uncertainty over whether Trump reverses course.
• Impacts already visible: Nintendo delays Switch 2 US preorders.

• Supply chain shocks, rising costs, and job losses in producing countries (Vietnam, China).
• Major US banks now see a >55% chance of global recession.
• Countries shifting alliances; US being carved out.

• Wild 10-year yield swings overnight – unusual volume raises eyebrows.
• Could China be retaliating by offloading US debt?

• Avoid panic. Focus on quality and defensive stocks.
• Opportunities:
  • SA: Capitec, Shoprite*, BIDCorp, RSA Retail Savings Bonds
  • Global: Ferrari (Race), Johnson & Johnson, ASML, Europe
  • Sectors: Healthcare (STXHLT), Tobacco, Alcohol, Staples

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Chapters 00:00 Market Overview and Budget Implications 02:59 Global Economic Concerns and Market Reactions 05:54 Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts 09:10 Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times 12:04 Sector Analysis: Opportunities and Risks 14:58 Future Market Predictions and Closing Thoughts

Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.

• After a rough start, Monday's trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility.

• The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high.

• Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date.

• Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from -2.8%. Adjustments for gold trade data make the outlook slightly less dire.

• Stock down 20% from its highs, with a historically low P/E ratio of 34. Analysts see upside potential.

Amazon | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025

• Trading near $165, with a potential drop to $150 making its 3% yield even more attractive.

Johnson & Johnson | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025

• Nvidia, Palantir, Novo Nordisk, and more available via FNB, offering exposure to top global stocks with local accessibility.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

00:00 Market Overview and Economic Indicators 03:09 US Tariff Implications and Market Reactions 05:45 Commodities Performance and Economic Impact 09:03 Stock Analysis: Amazon's Market Position 12:00 Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson's Stability 14:38 Investment Strategies and Innovations

• Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status.
• ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise.
• Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers.

• Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs, data centers, and energy transition. Companies like BHP*, Anglo, and Rio ramping up production. Simon is playing the copper trade through BHP Group.

Copper | Weekly | 25 March 2025

• Rhodium: Seeing a price recovery after a prolonged downturn. Benefiting PGM miners, though still far from peak levels.
• Platinum & Palladium: Relatively stable within established price ranges.

• BYD claims a five-minute charge for 400 km range, setting a new benchmark for EVs.
• Outpacing Tesla and other competitors in rapid-charging efficiency.
• Dominating the affordable EV space with sub-$10,000 models.
• Tesla's Market Share Decline in Europe
• Tesla's share of the European BEV market dropped from 21% to 9.6%.
• Competitive pricing from BYD and lack of Tesla model updates.
• CEO Elon Musk's political involvement potentially affecting brand perception.

• Reported net asset value (NAV) of R276.89, but share price only R155.
• The discount to NAV is reaching extreme levels.
• Historically, Remgro traded at a much smaller discount, raising questions about potential revaluation.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

00:00 Market Overview and Education Stocks 06:51 Commodities: Copper and Rhodium Insights 13:34 Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics 18:02 Remgro's Financial Performance and Valuation Insights

• Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff.

• Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025
• Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties.

• Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025
• Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80.

• Gold as a Portfolio Hedge:
  • Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio.
  • Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York.
  • Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850.
• Dollar Index Trends:
  • Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101.
  • Could drive the Rand towards 17.80.

• European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns.
• Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions.
• Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs.

• AI Participation Note by Standard Bank:
• Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index.
• Two options:
  • 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside.
  • Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%.
• Open for investment until March 28, 2025.

• Finally delivered helium after years of delays.
• Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain.
• Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending.
• Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays.

• Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast:
• Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%.
• Economic slowdown concerns intensifying.

• US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates.
• SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements 05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics 12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI 17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges 20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025.
• Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns.
• Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January.

• Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022.
• Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines.
• Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility.

• Europe's economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package.
• ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector.
• Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors.

Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025

• Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education.
• Reflection on the platform's growth and community support.

• Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal strategies.
• Previous reliance on gold reserves for financial stability.
• Discussion on potential economic impacts.

• Revenue up 21%, HEPS up 27%, dividend up 17%.
• Expanding into fintech with PayJustNow and FinChoice.
• Liquidity concerns despite strong financial performance.

• Initial claims suggested debt repayment, but data suggests spending.
• Increased vehicle sales, hospitality sector growth (e.g., Spur, Sun International).
• Implications for long-term financial planning.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

00:00 Economic Outlook: Recession Predictions and Market Reactions 09:07 Investing in Europe: Opportunities and ETFs 12:07 Celebrating 14 Years of Just One Lap 13:20 Budget Analysis: VAT Increase and Economic Innovation 15:09 Home Choice International: Business Performance and Liquidity Challenges 18:19 Consumer Spending Trends: Where Did the Money Go?