The 2024 Iowa caucuses have come and gone, with the key takeaways some freezing temperatures, low turnout, and a Trump slam dunk. 15 percent of eligible Iowans gave 51% of the vote to the former president. Of course, that also means that about half voted for somebody other than Trump. Most disappointed was Nikki Haley, who surprised us all with a lagging third place, while Ron DeSantis pulled ahead to second. So, is the 2024 GOP nomination a done deal for Trump? Maybe. But the year has just begun, and some more challenging ground is ahead for the Donald and his would-be replacements.

Sean Trende is a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he works on elections, American political trends, voting patterns, and demographics. He is also the senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. Before becoming a full-time political analyst, Mr. Trende practiced law for eight years, during which time he represented clients before a variety of settings ranging from state trial courts to the Supreme Court of the United States.

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